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Forums - Sony - Macroaxis: Sony Has 79% Chance of Going Bankrupt in the Next 2 Years

nuckles87 said:
You are misunderstanding what they are saying. These are the actual numbers:

http://gaminrealm.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/368f0d42aaa83d013e9719f758e2ed95-600x236.png

What they are saying is, Sony's probability of going into bankruptcy is more then double the probabibility of all equities going into bankruptcy and nearly quadruple that of the entire consumer goods sector. There is nothing meaningless about these numbers.

No, you're misunderstanding what *I'm* saying. I knew what they intended to say. But if their analysis were legitimate, then they would release their analysis with statistically accurate descriptions. The descriptions they provided do not make statistical sense. That we can figure out what they meant is irrelevant - they wouldn't have worded it that way in the first place if they knew the first thing about statistics. And I'm calling out their legitimacy on the basis that they clearly don't understand the first thing about the field in which they supposedly work.

This would be like going to a doctor, and that doctor telling you that your funny bone is broken. Sure, we could probably identify that the intent was to say that you've injured yourself in that vicinity (the "funny bone" is actually an exposed part of the ulnar nerve), but the fact that the doctor worded it in this way demonstrates a lack of understanding of anatomy.



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ninetailschris said:
Asdrendeluxe said:
gooch_destroyer said:
ninetailschris said:
If Sony was smart they close there game hardware department and tvs. Cameras are also creating a loss and with phones being able to the job with additional services.


Yeah, that'll work. /s


I believe this is a stupid thing to close it. And your sarcasm is good in this point. When they sell a division It will make his debt in a higher percent of his revenue and this is not good. What can they sell? The TV Division ? They became only a really small price for this. The profit is really small, sayed nobody will buy it for a high price. How you turn it they are in not such a great position. But hej nobody knows what thej will deliever in the future but i doubt it they bring what cool in the tablet.


So, one of the reasons the Sony is major debt is going to be dumb to get rid of because it will bring them out of debt. Sounds like decision by practical business man.

Tv the amount money to turn that around full force would put them in a bigger hole and they would have to sell there tv lower. They got beat by Koreans because you can get a decent tv for a good price. Sony has music and motion pictures, you don't have to do everything to be successful. You need to know when to kill things and when to expand to other more successful markets. Mircosoft is famous for doing that. Samsung is famous for that. Apple is too.

hardware should go because more developers are actual making more money than console producers because they can put there games multiple systems for profit. Hardware holds Sony back and causes them to lose more money than they could earn. I say this about any hardware maker.

Problem is.  Japan is like America.  You can't just fire people because you are losing money.

Japan's "Employment for Life" culture and laws makes it REALLY hard to let people go.

Closing the department might cost them more because then they'll owe on their salaries and pensions and have no work for those employees to do... and bring in no revenue.



As for the OP. 80% seems high. I'd place it more at like... 10-20%. Especially when you consider the political ramifications for Abe if a company like Sony fails. He wants to kill off a lot of zombie companies, but losing Sony would almost certainty be seen as too far a step in that direction.



Aielyn said:
nuckles87 said:
You are misunderstanding what they are saying. These are the actual numbers:

http://gaminrealm.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/368f0d42aaa83d013e9719f758e2ed95-600x236.png

What they are saying is, Sony's probability of going into bankruptcy is more then double the probabibility of all equities going into bankruptcy and nearly quadruple that of the entire consumer goods sector. There is nothing meaningless about these numbers.

No, you're misunderstanding what *I'm* saying. I knew what they intended to say. But if their analysis were legitimate, then they would release their analysis with statistically accurate descriptions. The descriptions they provided do not make statistical sense. That we can figure out what they meant is irrelevant - they wouldn't have worded it that way in the first place if they knew the first thing about statistics. And I'm calling out their legitimacy on the basis that they clearly don't understand the first thing about the field in which they supposedly work.

This would be like going to a doctor, and that doctor telling you that your funny bone is broken. Sure, we could probably identify that the intent was to say that you've injured yourself in that vicinity (the "funny bone" is actually an exposed part of the ulnar nerve), but the fact that the doctor worded it in this way demonstrates a lack of understanding of anatomy.


Ah I see, thanks for clearing that up fo me.



Kaz said in 2010 that the three pillars of Sony is gaming, smartdevices, software and entertainment.

l Look for Sony to give up main production investment into TV's in 2014 and further lower production #'s and scale back productions on TV in mid tier , and lay off more Work employees lower the sheer over head in work force by a really large number, and make software for TV's to be sold through network services. I would say there is yet another 10,000 to 20,000 work force cut as they scale back TV production further over the next 2 to 3 years. and invest more into smart devices production where they are selling over 10 million a sales Quarter

example:

Sony Q3 2013 results show increase in mobile device sales

Sony eked out about 10 million mobile devices last quarter, which is an incremental increase over the 9.6 million the sold the previous quarter. Sony sold 8.8 million in Q3 2012, so the year-over-year growth is promising, but not impressive yet.

http://androidcommunity.com/sony-q3-2013-results-show-increase-in-mobile-device-sales-20131031/

more cuts for things that are increasing Sony's large overhead, and cuts in cost's of things that balloon the operating expenses, that of course takes time but, not to mention

Japan Opts to Raise Sales Tax and Stimulus
Prime Minister Abe Seeks to Reduce Country's Mounting Debt, Bolster Economic Growth to Reverse Stubborn Deflation

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303918804579108330346937324



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

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Kasz216 said:
ninetailschris said:
Asdrendeluxe said:
gooch_destroyer said:
ninetailschris said:
If Sony was smart they close there game hardware department and tvs. Cameras are also creating a loss and with phones being able to the job with additional services.


Yeah, that'll work. /s


I believe this is a stupid thing to close it. And your sarcasm is good in this point. When they sell a division It will make his debt in a higher percent of his revenue and this is not good. What can they sell? The TV Division ? They became only a really small price for this. The profit is really small, sayed nobody will buy it for a high price. How you turn it they are in not such a great position. But hej nobody knows what thej will deliever in the future but i doubt it they bring what cool in the tablet.


So, one of the reasons the Sony is major debt is going to be dumb to get rid of because it will bring them out of debt. Sounds like decision by practical business man.

Tv the amount money to turn that around full force would put them in a bigger hole and they would have to sell there tv lower. They got beat by Koreans because you can get a decent tv for a good price. Sony has music and motion pictures, you don't have to do everything to be successful. You need to know when to kill things and when to expand to other more successful markets. Mircosoft is famous for doing that. Samsung is famous for that. Apple is too.

hardware should go because more developers are actual making more money than console producers because they can put there games multiple systems for profit. Hardware holds Sony back and causes them to lose more money than they could earn. I say this about any hardware maker.

Problem is.  Japan is like America.  You can't just fire people because you are losing money.

Japan's "Employment for Life" culture and laws makes it REALLY hard to let people go.

Closing the department might cost them more because then they'll owe on their salaries and pensions and have no work for those employees to do... and bring in no revenue.


Could they move them over to different markets by expand other markets? 

By the way I heard the employment for life has been decreasing year by year. I could swear I read that from associate press.



"Excuse me sir, I see you have a weapon. Why don't you put it down and let's settle this like gentlemen"  ~ max

Id take this article with a shed load of salt.

Sony is in financial trouble.. That's a known factor. And I would bet more for a buyout than a bankruptcy. Either way I don't expect the playstation brand to be the same if at all by 2020. Especially if Apple or Mircosoft buys them.



selnor1983 said:
Id take this article with a shed load of salt.

Sony is in financial trouble.. That's a known factor. And I would bet more for a buyout than a bankruptcy. Either way I don't expect the playstation brand to be the same if at all by 2020. Especially if Apple or Mircosoft buys them.

no Hostile Take Over of any large japanese Company or , by any foreign hedge fund investor groups has had any success to do so in the past 40 years, let alone a company the size of Sony's, that employ's such a very large number of japanese people,

 

Break up Sony? It's harder than it looks

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/16/break-up-sony-its-harder-than-it-looks/

 

""The entertainment businesses are important contributors to Sony's growth and are not for sale," wrote Hirai in Sony's statement."

again:

Struggles with foreign shareholders have nearly always turned to favor Japanese companies, after all. Just six years ago when Steel Partners launched a tender offer for the 90% of a famous Japanese sauce maker, Bull-Dog, the food firm sought a white knight intervention and then a poison pill to save itself from an aggressive takeover bid from the Americans. Finally, Japanese courts voted in favor of the pill.

very doubtful of a buyout, Sony i would bet would cut off every part it could but smartphones and software and keep playstation as Kaz stated "the three pillar's of Sony" than sell off playstation, if anything the work force and over head of Sony as a whole would Suffer the drastic cuts needed in order to keep a 50 billion in revenue Alive and kicking. Trim off sections such as TV's are ripe for the Cut. 8 years of straight loss in the billions tend to do that, Hell even Kaz no more see's the TV part of Sony as a pillar of Sony anymore.




I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

joeorc said:
selnor1983 said:
Id take this article with a shed load of salt.

Sony is in financial trouble.. That's a known factor. And I would bet more for a buyout than a bankruptcy. Either way I don't expect the playstation brand to be the same if at all by 2020. Especially if Apple or Mircosoft buys them.

no Hostile Take Over of any large japanese Company or , by any foreign hedge fund investor groups has had any success to do so in the past 40 years, let alone a company the size of Sony's, that employ's such a very large number of japanese people,

 

Break up Sony? It's harder than it looks

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/16/break-up-sony-its-harder-than-it-looks/

 

""The entertainment businesses are important contributors to Sony's growth and are not for sale," wrote Hirai in Sony's statement."

again:

Struggles with foreign shareholders have nearly always turned to favor Japanese companies, after all. Just six years ago when Steel Partners launched a tender offer for the 90% of a famous Japanese sauce maker, Bull-Dog, the food firm sought a white knight intervention and then a poison pill to save itself from an aggressive takeover bid from the Americans. Finally, Japanese courts voted in favor of the pill.

very doubtful of a buyout, Sony i would bet would cut off every part it could but smartphones and software and keep playstation as Kaz stated "the three pillar's of Sony" than sell off playstation, if anything the work force and over head of Sony as a whole would Suffer the drastic cuts needed in order to keep a 50 billion in revenue Alive and kicking. Trim off sections such as TV's are ripe for the Cut. 8 years of straight loss in the billions tend to do that, Hell even Kaz no more see's the TV part of Sony as a pillar of Sony anymore.


Sony in its entirity is worth $18 billiion. Microsoft made more than that in profit in the last quater financials. Microsoft is worth over $400 billion not including networth. It could be done with the change on the CEO's desk.

Im no in anyway implying I know what will happen to Sony. But I fully do not expect Plastaion to either be a) around in 2020 or b) be in the same vien it is now. I wouldnt be surprised if PS4 is onys lat console regardless of its sucess. I believe Sony went into consle gaming purel to push its media systems right from PS1 and its investment in CD tech at the time.

Same way Microsoft is for its software th centre of the living room. Nintendo is the only company who is solely their for gaming reasons.



selnor1983 said:
joeorc said:
selnor1983 said:
Id take this article with a shed load of salt.

Sony is in financial trouble.. That's a known factor. And I would bet more for a buyout than a bankruptcy. Either way I don't expect the playstation brand to be the same if at all by 2020. Especially if Apple or Mircosoft buys them.

no Hostile Take Over of any large japanese Company or , by any foreign hedge fund investor groups has had any success to do so in the past 40 years, let alone a company the size of Sony's, that employ's such a very large number of japanese people,

 

Break up Sony? It's harder than it looks

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/16/break-up-sony-its-harder-than-it-looks/

 

""The entertainment businesses are important contributors to Sony's growth and are not for sale," wrote Hirai in Sony's statement."

again:

Struggles with foreign shareholders have nearly always turned to favor Japanese companies, after all. Just six years ago when Steel Partners launched a tender offer for the 90% of a famous Japanese sauce maker, Bull-Dog, the food firm sought a white knight intervention and then a poison pill to save itself from an aggressive takeover bid from the Americans. Finally, Japanese courts voted in favor of the pill.

very doubtful of a buyout, Sony i would bet would cut off every part it could but smartphones and software and keep playstation as Kaz stated "the three pillar's of Sony" than sell off playstation, if anything the work force and over head of Sony as a whole would Suffer the drastic cuts needed in order to keep a 50 billion in revenue Alive and kicking. Trim off sections such as TV's are ripe for the Cut. 8 years of straight loss in the billions tend to do that, Hell even Kaz no more see's the TV part of Sony as a pillar of Sony anymore.


Sony in its entirity is worth $18 billiion. Microsoft made more than that in profit in the last quater financials. Microsoft is worth over $400 billion not including networth. It could be done with the change on the CEO's desk.

Im no in anyway implying I know what will happen to Sony.

But I fully do not expect Plastaion to either be a) around in 2020 or b) be in the same vien it is now. I wouldnt be surprised if PS4 is onys lat console regardless of its sucess.

I believe Sony went into consle gaming purel to push its media systems right from PS1 and its investment in CD tech at the time.

Same way Microsoft is for its software th centre of the living room. Nintendo is the only company who is solely their for gaming reasons.

Oh come on,  Kaz Even stated in Public they are making cuts to area's to downscale the size of the overhead again you are going to sit there and still try to imply, that Sony will get rid of playstation? Having the Money to purchase is not the same as being able to do it, because A) the Toxic parts of Sony including in having to take on the excess of over 160,000+ Employees, Market cap. is one thing, again but it does not offer you the abiliuty to take on the EXPENSE OF THE lOGISTICS IN ORDER TO MOUNT A HOSTILE TAKE OVER OF SUCH A COMPANY THE SIZE OF SONY!

If 40 straight years of these failures for such Hostile take over's show one thing its not such an easy task as what way you are trying to make it out to be.

Again you just stated "PS4 is Sonys lat console regardless of its sucess" 

Again there was many times this very point was made about Sony and the PS3 DUE TO THE MONEY PROBLEMS SONY HAS HAD. Well sony had to sell off building's , yeah they did so they can buy yet another HQ for playstation in no other place but one of the most expensive places to buy into

http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2013/09/11/playstation-opens-giant-headquarters-in-silicon-valley-jack-tretton-this-was-the-jewel-we-had-our-eye-on-for-about-6-years/

yes they were going to spend into that knowing full well they are going to file to be Bankrupt in 2 years and not make playstations anymore after the PS4 is in really high demand?

So your point is the only reason for Sony to be in game console's area has nothing to do with the investment that Sony put into to make a add on for Nintendo and Nintendo decided to say "were going with someone else" after Sony spent all that Money to make the Add on? and the Ceo said at the time to "Do it" make our own system.. So that was just trying to push Media right?

So now with Sony investing More and More Money into playstation, means they do not care about Playstation part of the company and are not into it for being a Game company? Just because they make more than just game consoles does not make them anyless of a core game company than Nintendo, or is it "just " Nintendo is the one who sets the bar for the Game industry for Game console's?



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.