Yeah is this 15 million lifetime? That's like super doomed.
Obviously, with the lower install base games will not sell as high. For example, Mario Kart Wii sold what? 33 million. And that was on a 99 million install base. I'd say... around 25-30% for their high profile games. Again, I'm not good at predictions.

Yep lifetime, maybe something like this

2012-2.25m

2013-3m/5.25m

2014-4.75m/10m

2015-3m/13m

2016-1.5m/14.5m (successor released holiday 2016)

2017-.5m/15m (discontinued)

But I would look at Gamecube software sales to make a prediction since it sold just under 22m. Smash Bros, Mario Kart and 3D Mario each sold 6-7m. Zelda sold just under 5m. Animal Crossing and Luigi's Mansion sold over 3m. And a bunch of others sold 1-3m.

Nobody else would like to add?

There's no way Wii U only sells 15 million.   It'd be shocked if it did worse than 25-30. Shocked.  3DS had a really slow start, too.  3DS's second year wasn't good, either, outside of Japan.  We will just have to wait and see, but I really think the 15m figure is really low-balling sales.  I don't even think in Nintendo's worst-case nightmare scenarios Wii U does nearly that poorly.   2013 was rough because of so many software delays.  2014 will be much, much better, especially if DK and Mario Kart still make it out by April.   Smash can carry it through it's third holiday without much help.  Mario Kart's legs on their own will ensure 2014 is better than 2015.   I'd be pretty surprised if Wii U doesn't sell 10 million worldwide in 2014.  It's just a matter of repeating that success in 2015.

Let's come back to this thread three months from now and soak in all the sales numbers between now and then, and then talk about whether or not DKC TF is spurring Wii U sales.

what think-man said

Wii U will definitely sell more than 15 million, but if we say the system sells only 15m, then 3D World would sell around 4,5 million, and SSB around 5 million along with MK. On the GCN Smash sold better than 3D Mario, and this MK hasn't any special gimmick like two people in a kart which would confuse a lot of consumers. And I feel the MK brand is stronger nowadays.

I believe it will sell much more than 15m as well and that 2014 will be a strong year for Wii U but based off how its currently selling (worse than Gamecube in the same time frame) 15m is about where it would end up. Its just a hypothetical question for fun, so IF Wii U were to sell only 15m, how well do u see its major software releases selling?

Give numbers my good friend

Iwata can't allow this to happen. It's really that simple. The console concept should never overshadow the need to build install base, to sell games (that's the WHOLE point of hardware).

Drop the freaking tablet controller as a standard, make it optional.

Cut the price to $199.99 w/NSMBU + Wii Sports Club this April with a Wiimote + a redesigned Pro Controller shell (keep those costs down). Launch it the same day as Mario Kart 8. It basically becomes the "Wii 2" at a price that's acceptable to parents/kids and people maybe wanting a secondary Nintendo/party console to go with their PS4/X1.

Sell the tablet pad seperately for $89.99 w/Nintendo Land 2 (slap together a few new attractions -- Star Fox, Wave Race, mmm mmm). Existing Wii U owners get Nintendo Land 2 for free from the eShop as a thank you.

Incentivize hardware sales with eShop bonuses. Pre-order X? Get Xenoblade HD for free. Pre-order Bayonetta 2? Get Bayonetta 1: Director's Cut on the eShop for free. Buy a third party game like Watch Dogs? Guess what? You're enrolled in the Nintendo Premium Club. You get a Samus figurine from Best Buy or Game Stop + Metroid Prime Trilogy HD from the eShop. This is just using assets Nintendo already has.

If doodling on Miiverse gives you a hard on, great, that functionality is still there for you, but Nintendo shouldn't sacrifice their entire console division on such a low appealling concept.

Stay on topic damnit!!!!!!!!