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Forums - Nintendo - If Wii U only sells 15m, how well will key software sell?

zorg1000 on 05 December 2013

Looking back at history, with the exception of Wii, every Nintendo home console has had a pretty significant decline from its predecessor. NES-62m, SNES-49m (about 20% decline), N64-33m (about 33% decline), GC-22m (about 33% decline). Currently Wii U is selling as if Wii never existed and is selling worse than GC. If has a similar decline from GC as previous consoles had than it would end up with around 15m, give or take a few million. So if Wii U sells 15m lifetime, how much will the big Nintendo franchises sell on it?

Over 5 million club-Mario Kart, Smash Bros, New Super Mario Bros

3-5 million club-Mario 3D World, Donkey Kong Country, Nintendo Land, Legend of Zelda, Wii Sports

Over 1 million club-Metroid, Kirby, Animal Crossing, Mario Party, Pikmin, Paper Mario, Wii Party, Wii Fit, Wind Waker HD, Luigi U, Yarn Yoshi



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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think-man on 05 December 2013

Hard to say, but you can pretty much guarantee every WiiU owner will buy pretty much every 1st party game (cause they ain't buying the third party games) so they'll sell very good.



 

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Seece on 05 December 2013
think-man said:
Hard to say, but you can pretty much guarantee every WiiU owner will buy pretty much every 1st party game (cause they ain't buying the third party games) so they'll sell very good.

Hard to say what 3D World's legs will be, but there are 4m owners out there and it's sold to around 12% of the userbase? Surely it'll see a similar attach rate as the userbase grows?



 

think-man on 05 December 2013
Seece said:
think-man said:
Hard to say, but you can pretty much guarantee every WiiU owner will buy pretty much every 1st party game (cause they ain't buying the third party games) so they'll sell very good.

Hard to say what 3D World's legs will be, but there are 4m owners out there and it's sold to around 12% of the userbase? Surely it'll see a similar attach rate as the userbase grows?


It'll have legs, not huge legs like many thought though. 



 

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Seece on 05 December 2013
think-man said:
Seece said:
think-man said:
Hard to say, but you can pretty much guarantee every WiiU owner will buy pretty much every 1st party game (cause they ain't buying the third party games) so they'll sell very good.

Hard to say what 3D World's legs will be, but there are 4m owners out there and it's sold to around 12% of the userbase? Surely it'll see a similar attach rate as the userbase grows?


It'll have legs, not huge legs like many thought though. 

I suppose even a 20% attach rate would be 3m which is acceptable, probably be closer to 30% though on such a small userbase.



 

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zorg1000 on 05 December 2013
think-man said:
Hard to say, but you can pretty much guarantee every WiiU owner will buy pretty much every 1st party game (cause they ain't buying the third party games) so they'll sell very good.

I agree, Gamecube had an install base of 22m and had 3 games sell over 5 million, 13 games sold over 2 million and almost 50 games sold over 1 million. So even if Wii U only sells 15m than it should still have some pretty decent selling games.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 05 December 2013
Seece said:
think-man said:
Seece said:
think-man said:
Hard to say, but you can pretty much guarantee every WiiU owner will buy pretty much every 1st party game (cause they ain't buying the third party games) so they'll sell very good.

Hard to say what 3D World's legs will be, but there are 4m owners out there and it's sold to around 12% of the userbase? Surely it'll see a similar attach rate as the userbase grows?


It'll have legs, not huge legs like many thought though. 

I suppose even a 20% attach rate would be 3m which is acceptable, probably be closer to 30% though on such a small userbase.

4m id say is pretty possible on a 15m install base. Sunshine sold 6.3m on an install base of 22m.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Lonely_Dolphin on 05 December 2013

Thought this was gonna be another toastboy thread lolz. Guess you should never judge a thread by it's title! Anywhos, I think 5 million is about the max any game could sell on a 15 million install base, though of course the Wii U will surely sell more than that.



zorg1000 on 05 December 2013
Einsam_Delphin said:
Thought this was gonna be another toastboy thread lolz. Guess you should never judge a thread by it's title! Anywhos, I think 5 million is about the max any game could sell on a 15 million install base, though of course the Wii U will surely sell more than that.


Give more detailed predictions!!!



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

leo-j on 05 December 2013

If Wii u sells 15 million lt nintendo will drop the console immediately, and move to a super HD console, no way Wii u only sells 15 M



 

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