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Forums - Sales - Pachter: Wii on top, 360 2nd, PS3 close 3rd for January NPD

Dolla Dolla on 13 February 2008

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=17328

Ahead of NPD's February 14th report of U.S. software and hardware sales for January, analysts from Wedbush Morgan and simExchange have called for a Wii-led month, with total sales down slightly from the year prior to approximately $500 million.

Last year's January sales report, however, was five weeks to this year's four, and, adjusted for the difference, says Wedbush's Michael Pachter, sales would actually be up 14 percent, rather than down its predicted 9 percent.

Pachter expects January software sales to be driven by Super Mario Galaxy, Wii Play, Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero III and Rock Band, with a light monthly release schedule topped mainly be Burnout Paradise and Advance Wars: Days of Ruin.

Both Pachter and fantasy market simExchange have released their predictions for hardware sales, which breaks down as follows:

Wedbush Morgan
Wii - 420,000
DS - 350,000
Xbox 360 - 290,000
PS3 - 240,000
PSP - 200,000
PS2 - 190,000
GBA - 5,000

simExchange
DS - 460,000
Wii - 403,000
Xbox 360 - 289,000
PSP - 250,000
PS3 - 200,000

Concluded Pachter, "While next generation console unit sales are more modest than they were in the analogous period of 2002 (when console prices averaged under $200), recent price cuts, greater handheld hardware sales, and new product introductions (slim PSP and the 40Gb PS3) along with the release of key games (Halo 3 and Guitar Hero III) triggered a spike in hardware sales over the last few months that we believe will continue into 2008."



For comparison (Edited to include TheSource's NPD Preview):

Console Pachter
SimExchange
VGC
Wii
420k
403k
327k
DS
350k
460k
547k
X360
290k
289k
286k
PS3
240k
200k201k
PSP
200k
250k
268k


*Note: I took the monthly for VGC, so it may not match up with the time periods for Pachter and SimExchange.

Threads of Interest:
The Movie Thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=6880
The Crow Eating Thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=3886
The Betting Thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=7104
Custom GIFs Thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=18963
The Greatest Game Ever Conceived On Any Platform
Tag: "I have tasted Obi-Wan's bitter tears"

Around the Network
dabaus513 on 13 February 2008

Looks like vg chartz is pretty close to their predictions sans the ds, but when it sells that much i guess its hard to determine the exact number.



 

 

 

FishyJoe on 13 February 2008

Do we know which weeks are being counted? Is January 4 or 5 weeks? And did you correct for Canada?

Here are VGC's numbers according to TheSource:

http://vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=835 

Context

Year over Year Change in Wk. Avgs.
Platform07 Jan08 JanAvg/weekAvg/week
Wii436,000327,02987.2k81.8k
PS3244,000201,78748.8k50.4k
Xbox 360294,000286,72058.8k71.7k
PS2299,000230,70759.8k57.7k
DS239,000547,38847.8k136.8k
PSP211,000268,71442.2k67.2k

 



Dolla Dolla on 13 February 2008

Thanks, Fishy. I updated VGC's numbers with TheSource's stats.

Also, January is a 4 week month instead of 5. Last year was 5 weeks.



Threads of Interest:
The Movie Thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=6880
The Crow Eating Thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=3886
The Betting Thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=7104
Custom GIFs Thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=18963
The Greatest Game Ever Conceived On Any Platform
Tag: "I have tasted Obi-Wan's bitter tears"

YoppaDo on 14 February 2008

Whoops! Looked at wrong data!

 

Pretty good predictions from vgchartz.



Around the Network
Avinash_Tyagi on 14 February 2008

remember to add for Canada



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Rath on 14 February 2008

Interesting that he has predicted Wii so high - usually he is saying how he thinks it will die out. o.O

Anyway, we will see when NPD comes.



bdbdbd on 14 February 2008
YoppaDo said:

Whoops! Looked at wrong data!

 

Pretty good predictions from vgchartz.


When they are in line with Pachters prediction? LOL Maybe they have checked their numbers from VGC (except for Wii and DS). If i'd be analysist, i'd check out what VGC shows and base my prediction on VGC numbers.

Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

Neos on 14 February 2008


Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!

 

Fastrabbit09 on 14 February 2008

so they are saying 420k wiis in US only while vgc has only 327 wiis in US+Canada+Mexico?

either they are overtracking or we are undertracking?



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp