thekitchensink said: "Just as we have barely stepped into 2008, EGM's usually reliable Rumor Mill section is making mention that, "a secret unannounced first-party sequel originally planned for the Xbox 360, is now going over to the next Xbox". " at EGM being 'reliable'

 That's where I stopped reading.

I just don't believe MS can ever win a gen as long as they continue to put up dismal sales in Japan.

jankazimierz said: Yeah, if they can release a superior console with BD at the same price as the PS3 AND make better games WITHOUT delays, than Sony will be scrambling to compete, and Im not sure what else they could do but be forced to release a new console before their 2016 date. It might make things ugly with the game industry though, as we already see alot of people going to the "casual" side of gaming cause of the high prices and confusion (different sku's, backwards compatibility issues) from the different systems.

MS will get a marginally more powerful machine than the PS3 for a marginally higher price if they release in 2009. They will also piss off millions of customers and alienate their ever-growing fanbase.

Why not wait another year and launch a machine the will decimate the PS3 for $300 in 2010? It makes a lot more sense. 

It will be interesting to see where this America and Japan divide in gaming takes the game industry. MS needs to hire Toshiba to market the 360 in japan under the "toshiba" brand, and they need to make a slim version, then it might do better. :)

yeah, i agree Rocketpig, If they wait till 2010 then they can say they use a 5 year life cycle (2005-2010), which was the norm i think in the past (96-01-06 for nintendo and sony I think)

How is the history of launch prices versus the price of the predecessor at that time? I don't think anybody will launch a new console with a price close to their old console. So X360 has to go down a lot in price before 720 "can" launch at a reasonable price.

 Hey kids it everyone's favorite time!  IT'S HISTORY TIME!!!! YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!

 

Today's lesson is called "Future Proof" or "Why you are inbred retard if you think this phrase is anything more than a marketing tool."

 

"But Professor Crab," you might write me, "my favoritist company in the WHOLE WIDE WORLD tells me that the console I just sold my kidney for is Future Proof.  I grew up with them and I trust them, you are a bad bad man for saying they are lying.  I hope you die."  Signed "NamingMyFirstBornKutaragi".

 

Well boys and girls, lets take a little look at what history has to say.  Here are the earliest launch dates for all of our favorite consoles for the last few generations. 

 

SNES 11-21-1990 (JP)

N64 06-23-1996 (JP)

Game Cube 09-14-2001 (JP)

Wii 11-19-2006 (NA)

 

Playstation 12-03-1994 (JP)

PS2 03-04-2000 (JP)

PS3 11-11-2006 (JP)

 

Genesis 10-29-1988 (JP)

Saturn 11-22-1994 (JP)

Dreamcast 11-27-1998 (JP)

 

Xbox 11-15-2001 (NA)

360 11-22-2005 (NA)

 

Wow, I know that's a lot of numbers.  Don't be afraid, they are our friends.  Let's look at them.

 

What do you notice about these numbers?  That's right!  There is only one place where there is a gap of over 6 years.  Now, I know you might be saying to yourself, "Well Gee, Sony looks like they keep to a 6 year cycle".  Not so little trooper, look a little closer.  The Playstation 2 launched a little late, just passed the 1999 holiday season and the Playstation 3 was delayed a full year.  If you tap that little noggin of yours, you'll notice that most console makers are on about a 5 year turnaround.  There were only 4 years between the first Xbox and the 360, but, if Microsoft was to keep the same cycle, the next Xbox would have to come out the end of next year.  Now, how long does it take to make a game?  Anyone?  Anyone?  That's right, a while.  How long does it take to make a game for a new system?  Bingo!  Longer.  If I was going to hold to the 5 year cycle and was going to develop a launch game for it, when would I start working on it?  One year before release, or two?  Ding, Ding, Ding!  You are smart kids.

 

The bonus question is, what indication do we have that this cycle is changing?  Wow, right again!  None at all! 

 

Your homework kids is to go home and pray to god that the article writer's computer spontaneously strangles him with with his mouse cord. 

rocketpig said: jankazimierz said: Yeah, if they can release a superior console with BD at the same price as the PS3 AND make better games WITHOUT delays, than Sony will be scrambling to compete, and Im not sure what else they could do but be forced to release a new console before their 2016 date. It might make things ugly with the game industry though, as we already see alot of people going to the "casual" side of gaming cause of the high prices and confusion (different sku's, backwards compatibility issues) from the different systems. MS will get a marginally more powerful machine than the PS3 for a marginally higher price if they release in 2009. They will also piss off millions of customers and alienate their ever-growing fanbase. Why not wait another year and launch a machine the will decimate the PS3 for $300 in 2010? It makes a lot more sense.

Last spring M$ was talking about 2011, but 2010 is definately possible. I see it depending on when competition is going to release theirs. M$ can target 2011, but since they can rush the development, they do it if necessary. They propably want to be the first in the market, but not too early. After all, it's not just the customers you fuck up for being too early, you fuck up your business partners; publishers and developers. Price of 360 and 720 will also be a factor. Late 2010, 360 will easilly be priced at 149 and depending on chosen strategy and cost of manufacturing, 720 could easilly be sold at 299. Then M$ could have high and low end consoles for their customers. As for the things you were thinking when replying my earlier post, i think: 720 will have BD drive for optical media. It's starting to be cheap after 2-3 years. Even that it includes optical drive, it focuses on DLC and will have better features connecting to MSN. I'd expect pretty similar online services than what Wii has. I think this is general trend in next generation, but it will have single processor inside, instead of of multi-processor core, for ease of development and cheaper production (note: dual-core isn't out of the question if it's planned for multitasking). Biggest technological leap will be in GPU:s. I'd say CPU will be twice as powerful as PS3:s CPU, but GPU will be at least 3-4 times the performance of current GPU:s. Since i expect DLC being the focus, i'd expect large HDD:s and them being the most expensive single part in the console. The controller will be tricky. I don't think M$ wants to target the "hardcore" anymore and neither i think they want to copy the Wii Remote. So i'd expect something that is more like gloves, which can be positined in 3D space (kinda like GPS). And as for Japan, as someone said, i belive M$ will licence their next console to some japanese manufacturer, maybe Matsushita, since they have some experience "Panasonic box with a twist. Ippooi nura deku". After all, even Nintendo licenced NES to Mattel for UK. LOL@ProfCrab: There's only one flaw in the development time logic: it would mean that M$ would have nearly ready hardware for their next console, or at least they would definately know what the hardware will be.

I think all consoles should obey a 5 year rule. ie. Release a new console every 5 years. This is an interesting topic, so I'll read through it tomorrow. (Got to go to bed for now).

Am I the only one thinking that another MS console within the next two years would still be this generation?

Its competition would be the Wii and PS3 not the Wii 2 and PS4. If MS do release a console so soon then the Wii 2 and PS4 will only be launching at the time MS release their fourth console. They've only been out a year and Sony and Nintendo aren't going to release new consoles when they've only been out 2-3 years.

It'd look like this:

Wii/PS3/XBox 360/XBox 720
Wii 2/PS4/XBox 1080

Attempting to cut this generation short would fail. Sony and Nintendo would have no need to rush out another console when the Wii's on fire and the PS3 is still pretty cutting edge. All Microsoft would be doing is resetting their current gen hardware sales to zero and many 360 customers would opt for a cheap PS3 or Wii instead of the next xbox due to the RRoD and feeling like MS had screwed them over.