Timed Monopoly: Why it's Too Soon for the Next Xbox

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rocketpig said:

jankazimierz said:
Yeah, if they can release a superior console with BD at the same price as the PS3 AND make better games WITHOUT delays, than Sony will be scrambling to compete, and Im not sure what else they could do but be forced to release a new console before their 2016 date. It might make things ugly with the game industry though, as we already see alot of people going to the "casual" side of gaming cause of the high prices and confusion (different sku's, backwards compatibility issues) from the different systems.

MS will get a marginally more powerful machine than the PS3 for a marginally higher price if they release in 2009. They will also piss off millions of customers and alienate their ever-growing fanbase.

Why not wait another year and launch a machine the will decimate the PS3 for $300 in 2010? It makes a lot more sense. 

Last spring M$ was talking about 2011, but 2010 is definately possible. I see it depending on when competition is going to release theirs. M$ can target 2011, but since they can rush the development, they do it if necessary. They propably want to be the first in the market, but not too early. After all, it's not just the customers you fuck up for being too early, you fuck up your business partners; publishers and developers. Price of 360 and 720 will also be a factor. Late 2010, 360 will easilly be priced at 149 and depending on chosen strategy and cost of manufacturing, 720 could easilly be sold at 299. Then M$ could have high and low end consoles for their customers. As for the things you were thinking when replying my earlier post, i think: 720 will have BD drive for optical media. It's starting to be cheap after 2-3 years. Even that it includes optical drive, it focuses on DLC and will have better features connecting to MSN. I'd expect pretty similar online services than what Wii has. I think this is general trend in next generation, but it will have single processor inside, instead of of multi-processor core, for ease of development and cheaper production (note: dual-core isn't out of the question if it's planned for multitasking). Biggest technological leap will be in GPU:s. I'd say CPU will be twice as powerful as PS3:s CPU, but GPU will be at least 3-4 times the performance of current GPU:s. Since i expect DLC being the focus, i'd expect large HDD:s and them being the most expensive single part in the console. The controller will be tricky. I don't think M$ wants to target the "hardcore" anymore and neither i think they want to copy the Wii Remote. So i'd expect something that is more like gloves, which can be positined in 3D space (kinda like GPS). And as for Japan, as someone said, i belive M$ will licence their next console to some japanese manufacturer, maybe Matsushita, since they have some experience "Panasonic box with a twist. Ippooi nura deku". After all, even Nintendo licenced NES to Mattel for UK. LOL@ProfCrab: There's only one flaw in the development time logic: it would mean that M$ would have nearly ready hardware for their next console, or at least they would definately know what the hardware will be.