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Forums - Microsoft - BLINDSIDED: Why the XBONE will win next gen.

kitler53 said:
very well written. i expect you'll catch a lot of flies in this trap...

Sadly no. This is just further proof that positive xbox threads get no attention.



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Both the X1 and PS4 will be winners this new gen IMO. They'll both sell 80+ million consoles with equally great libraries of games. The only real loser is going to be the WiiU, unless something drastic occurs.



I still don't see the interest in having an all in one box when mostly anyone has already 10 boxs under their TVs.

The exclusive argument, too, makes as much sense as any other console. Almost the same for "free" games.

But it is, indeed, cheap for the all in one stuff. But most people don't need the all in one stuff anyway.

I see your point and that's a good thread, and it's good to see some love for One here.



What is suggesting that the Xbox One will outsell the PS4 in its first week other than on a technicality since it launches in Europe on the same day as America?

Short of the live TV integration, that might work well in some cases, but certainly not in most cases, the PS4 can do everything the One can do, possibly even the voice commands

Oh and it is confirmed that you need a cable box. All the Xbox does is show that, hence the HDMI in, then controls it with an IR blaster



I have a different view...

The problem for me is that the idea of an "all in one box" that isn't actually all in one... is part of the problem.

I will get to that in a minute.. but I really do think MS are going for a market that just isn't there, well not for $500. If we take stuff like BBC iplayer, netflix, love film etc, all of this can be done on modern smart TV's for around £400-500, you can also buy little android devices that plug in that only cost £20 that do the same thing.

As for some other aspects of their TV strategy, its not a cable box (requires input from another device), it's not got a very big hard disk (that cannot be upgraded so its not that useful for PVR - Sky boxes are 1GB I think upwards), and overlay content has to be made by 3rd parties - which will cost them and they won't necessarily care for different programs/countries - no incentive unless MS gets someone to make it all.

Yes kinect movement is nice, but not essential (there are some more expensive smart TV's that can do this now).

I think if MS really wanted to get into the TV unit business, they should have purchased love film (or whichever one isn't owned by amazon)... they should have purchased a big Music company and they should have purchased a big film company (MGM for example) with a massive back catalogue of films. Yes it would have been expensive, but I really believe the future is exactly what Sony and MS are trying to do and that is turn their companies into service led.. i.e the software (live/PSN) is available on all types of devices and you can buy content and play it back on your phone/tv or PC. That is where the real money is to be made... it's just that MS have made a device but not really been ready for what they are intending it for. Perhaps the core gamers that have been outraged at them have knocked them back a bit, and perhaps MS have lost a bit of focus.

Actually I see Sony in the best position to do this right now... they have much of this stuff in place, but whether they actually can connect the dots, I am not sure... but for me I don't think a device that is $500 is going to win the hearts and minds of those people who would not normally buy a console for the living room. To me it doesn't feel like the next "Blu Ray/DVD" needed device. Neither does the PS4. That's why i expect a similar total number of consoles sold across the board...



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

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theprof00 said:

7. XB1 is already breaking pre-order records and is certain to outsell ps4's first week by a good margin. If you're a console gamer (and we know you are) you're going to want the system that everyone else is getting. Judging by first week sales, that's going to be xb1.

I guess you are talking USA right? No chance it will outsell PS4 in Europe/worldwide, in USA it might be close... but I still think PS4 will edge it. Would love to see what your source is for that?



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

To be honest the strategy behind X1 is very elaborate.

I used to work in the advertising field here in Belgium were TV audience measurement is among the most precise, if not the most precise, in the world.

A sample of households is being offered gifts in exchange for hosting a "media-measurement-box" which allows to know who is in the living room when the TV is on, and what channel is on.

It is very expensive to maintain a sufficient sample and the revenue gained from the collected data is invaluable.

Xbox One has the bias of doing a similar measurement on a biased sample : mainly gamers. But once the data is combined and extrapolated with other collected data and general knowledge about the audience it can be far more accurate than any TV data.

Google does such data-crossing and was the most successful in estimating electoral votes in the last US presidential campaign, way ahead of any traditional agency, despite also having a huge sample bias : people who have internet.

So believe me or not, Xbox One will have more than enough revenue from advertisement to eventually re-inject into market penetration. If MS feels that a certain country requires further sampling it will have more than enough means and motivation to subsidize SKUs, supply-side software, or simply advertise and position itself beautifully.

And Xbox One is only the first step of a very long term winning strategy.

As gamers, should we only care about games ? Of course not. Our privacy is very important and tbh even if I love my Xbox 360 I am very glad the "fans" reacted the way they did earlier this year.

It sends a proper message to Microsoft not to be too ambitious either. At least to stay less intrusive than smartphone suppliers and internet navigators. Games being mainly for kids it needs to remain somewhat sanctified.



theprof00 said:

I just read a thread about a member here losing faith in the xbox one and frankly it was the last straw. It's time to stand up for the little guy and point out some things that apparently only myself and a handful of other people in the world can see.

Strategy:
Microsoft is entering many different markets, and have developed the xbox one in such a way that as the console performs, so do the underlying technologies.
Here are the markets it is either establishing a position in or fortifying.
1. Consumer trend tracking and statistics
2. Blu-ray
3. Cloud and cloud-based retail application
4. "Hands-free" navigation
5. Home network
6. DVR and television programming
7. Television production
8. Streaming UGC

 

Now let's take a look at XB1's relative strengths:
1. It is the only "all in one" product on the market that can also play AAA video games. Unlike competing products like AppleTV, WDTV, Roku, GoogleTV, Chromecast, YouView- the XB1 provides a complete suite of functions atop competitive offerings. While many of these competitors do provide things like "snap-in" and gesture/phone navigation and gaming, they still lack the heavy hitter games that move boxes like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto.
Additionally, Tivo/DVR functions on most of these boxes require an upgrade of a harddrive. This generally results in increasing the price from anywhere around 79$ to 149$.

2. Clear identity. Face it, there is literally no product on the planet that provides a similar experience to the xbox one... in fact, even if a product was developed that could use gestures, play AAA games, record live tv, and have the kind of integration and streaming that xb1 has, it would cost much much more. One could argue that playstation is capable of doing the same with its offering, but for a great number of people (50% of 160m, according to current xbox360/ps3 numbers) the most important features are kinect, and the xbox franchises. I challenge you to point out a console that has kinect-like functionality with as robust an entertainment offering and game library as xb1 provides.

3. Look at it this way. The xb1 basically is a smart-phone for your home. We've become conditioned to all the apps and functions that our phones provide. It's only natural that we would see something similar come to the livingroom, complete with its own social-subscription though at a far cheaper price than a typical monthly verizon bill would come to, yet can do so much more (author's note: even phone calls!)

4. MS owns some of the best selling franchises on the planet. While arguable, when speaking of AAA-console-generation-exclusives MS owns the best selling games in nearly every genre. Authors note: I have excluded casual games such as phone or wii-games as they do not directly compete with MS' offering.

5. Ease of use/pricing. There is no better time to get into all these markets for consumers. It's unlikely you bought any kind of gesture control previously (as appletv sales suck balls) and doubly unlikely you have a computer for streaming (as again, PC market is tanking), so why not up and fix all of that with one simple box? (author's note: yet to be confirmed if you still require a cable box to watch tv with xb1) For 499$, you save yourself precious livingroom space, as in order to get what xb1 offers you would need:
1. Googletv 99$ with a hard drive 49$
2. DVR cable box 1.79$ per month
3. Xbox360 99$ + kinect 99$
4. subscriptions to netflix and hulu 15$ per month
5. HD Cables 99$
6. Bluray player 99$

That's at least 2 boxes more (5 v 3) and still come out to the same price during the first month. There is so much value in the system, it's almost unheard of. It makes sense when you hear MS slogan: "All in One, xbox one"

6. Free games. Nuff said.

7. XB1 is already breaking pre-order records and is certain to outsell ps4's first week by a good margin. If you're a console gamer (and we know you are) you're going to want the system that everyone else is getting. Judging by first week sales, that's going to be xb1.

8. Just kidding, that's more than enough reasons. I'll let you pick up your brain off the floor now.

Thats funny that you mention blu-ray....



theprof00 said:

I just read a thread about a member here losing faith in the xbox one and frankly it was the last straw. It's time to stand up for the little guy and point out some things that apparently only myself and a handful of other people in the world can see.

Strategy:
Microsoft is entering many different markets, and have developed the xbox one in such a way that as the console performs, so do the underlying technologies.
Here are the markets it is either establishing a position in or fortifying.
1. Consumer trend tracking and statistics
2. Blu-ray
3. Cloud and cloud-based retail application
4. "Hands-free" navigation
5. Home network
6. DVR and television programming
7. Television production
8. Streaming UGC

 

Now let's take a look at XB1's relative strengths:
1. It is the only "all in one" product on the market that can also play AAA video games. Unlike competing products like AppleTV, WDTV, Roku, GoogleTV, Chromecast, YouView- the XB1 provides a complete suite of functions atop competitive offerings. While many of these competitors do provide things like "snap-in" and gesture/phone navigation and gaming, they still lack the heavy hitter games that move boxes like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto.
Additionally, Tivo/DVR functions on most of these boxes require an upgrade of a harddrive. This generally results in increasing the price from anywhere around 79$ to 149$.

All in one is really only a plus IMO when the target consumer values a majority of all those things. For example, smartphones made sense because the average consumer all valued an MP3, cell phone, internet in the same way.

You can't just magically say "all in one" and expect a product to be a success. I mean, you can come up with so many of those. Why not combine a stove with a refridgerator? A TV on a lamp? Converging products have to actually make sense.

2. Clear identity. Face it, there is literally no product on the planet that provides a similar experience to the xbox one... in fact, even if a product was developed that could use gestures, play AAA games, record live tv, and have the kind of integration and streaming that xb1 has, it would cost much much more. One could argue that playstation is capable of doing the same with its offering, but for a great number of people (50% of 160m, according to current xbox360/ps3 numbers) the most important features are kinect, and the xbox franchises. I challenge you to point out a console that has kinect-like functionality with as robust an entertainment offering and game library as xb1 provides.

Points 1 and 2 conflict. I'm not sure what Xbox One is. A gaming console? A DVR? A Windows 8 for the TV? Because Microsoft is trying to sell the product to two radically different types of consumers, the messaging becomes confusing and jarring.

At best, it's really selling two messages. A hardcore gaming console and a TV computer.

3. Look at it this way. The xb1 basically is a smart-phone for your home. We've become conditioned to all the apps and functions that our phones provide. It's only natural that we would see something similar come to the livingroom, complete with its own social-subscription though at a far cheaper price than a typical monthly verizon bill would come to, yet can do so much more (author's note: even phone calls!)

The major benefit of converging things on a smartphone is that space and weight is incredibly important for mobile devices. It makes sense to have one smartphone, versus a MP3 and a cellphone.

The problem is what if we lived in a world where the people who buy MP3s just never bought nor cared about cellphones and the people who bought cellphones never cared nor bought a MP3? Why would they want to pay a premium for a device that does both?

4. MS owns some of the best selling franchises on the planet. While arguable, when speaking of AAA-console-generation-exclusives MS owns the best selling games in nearly every genre. Authors note: I have excluded casual games such as phone or wii-games as they do not directly compete with MS' offering.

That's debateable.

5. Ease of use/pricing. There is no better time to get into all these markets for consumers. It's unlikely you bought any kind of gesture control previously (as appletv sales suck balls) and doubly unlikely you have a computer for streaming (as again, PC market is tanking), so why not up and fix all of that with one simple box? (author's note: yet to be confirmed if you still require a cable box to watch tv with xb1) For 499$, you save yourself precious livingroom space, as in order to get what xb1 offers you would need:
1. Googletv 99$ with a hard drive 49$
2. DVR cable box 1.79$ per month
3. Xbox360 99$ + kinect 99$
4. subscriptions to netflix and hulu 15$ per month
5. HD Cables 99$
6. Bluray player 99$

That's at least 2 boxes more (5 v 3) and still come out to the same price during the first month. There is so much value in the system, it's almost unheard of. It makes sense when you hear MS slogan: "All in One, xbox one"

First, what if consumers already have these devices (like a BluRay)? You're not really saving consumers money then and you're having them pay for a redundant device.

6. Free games. Nuff said.

I think there's more than just that.

7. XB1 is already breaking pre-order records and is certain to outsell ps4's first week by a good margin. If you're a console gamer (and we know you are) you're going to want the system that everyone else is getting. Judging by first week sales, that's going to be xb1.

I would want more explanation and quantitative analysis if you're claiming that it's "certain to outsell ps4". 

8. Just kidding, that's more than enough reasons. I'll let you pick up your brain off the floor now.

I think my brain lost a few cells reading this list.





RolStoppable said:
kitler53 said:
very well written. i expect you'll catch a lot of flies in this trap...

I am not sure about that. Reading a theprof00 thread is like listening to a woman talking. After a few seconds the brain goes into mhm-yes-mhm-yes mode for self-protection and as a result even the people who read the entire original post will have little to no recollection of what they just read.

Aww Rol! I love when you visit my threads. Haven't seen you around lately, stranger! Put the WiiU down sometime and pay attention to your internet friends @.@