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Forums - Sony - Sony's Q2 FY2013 Earnings (PS3 2m / PSPVita 800k / ~$200m Loss)

Seece said:
justinian said:
Seece said:
justinian said:

Forbes?? Who gives a shit what a Forbes contributer says?

I was mainly refering to Nomura' s Rick Sherlund. Bill Gates' friend. A man that if he says something that isn't close to being true can see him lose all credit.

He said nothing about it making a loss, he simply advised MS to sell it to Samsung. Exactly what I was saying aobut the investors, they don't like that Xbox is apparantly causing MS to lose focus with Windows and Office (which is total BS).

"Xbox is cool, but BY OUR ESTIMATES Microsoft has not made any money on this" Sherlund - August 2013.

http://playeressence.com/rick-sherlund-owns-pachter-xbox-is-cool-but-microsoft-has-not-made-any-money-off-this/

This guy is like me, an idiot because he contradicts what you are saying about xbox making billions. And yes, I have reason to believe the estimates of a man with such a reputation (also very close to MS) and such a background than yours "and other people not here".

NOTE: I did said that according to analyst MS were not making any money or making a loss. I am with those whose estimates point more in the direction that they are not making any money.

HA, changing the goal posts I see. It's true over the life of the Xbox franchise Microsoft have not made a profit on it, the original xbox made heavy losses and the 360's first couple of years with RROD were hefty losses. Since then, over the last 6 years, they've profited. That's all that matters, not what happened 6+ years ago, it's irrlevent today.

Over the last 6 years MS have made over $3 billion in the EDD. Fact. You have nothing to back up your claim Xbox isn't making any money other than "oh they have other products in there"

Yeah, great research there bud, flawless.

You know very well when EDD loses money it is all Xbox and when EDD makes money it is no Xbox.  Geez.  

In reality though the Xbox is by far the biggest piece of that division and although over the whole life of Xbox it is still in the red, but it is recent past that matters and future projections.  Xbox for a number of years now has been profitable (very nice profits some of those years) and forward looking projections are healthy.  Sure some analysts dont think MS should be in the Video Game business just like some analysts dont thing General Electric should have a financial services division.

With MS financial shape compared to Sony, I really believe MS has the flexibility to respond very aggressively to the market.  They can have a very nice first 6 months with the Xbox One selling at a small or near profit and if they think the longer term trend is to fall behind the PS4 they can be aggressive in pricing come E3 and 2nd half 2014.  Much more so then Sony doing the same thing.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

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Seece said:
forest-spirit said:
Nothing on total PS3 shipments yet? C'mon Sony, spill the beans already. :/ I mean, shipments should have reached 80m by now, right? Sounds like something you'd announce...

I will get shredded for this, but there is a chance 360 is still ahead.

Q4 (March 31st) 2012 was the last time we got an LTD for PS3, 63.9m. Sony then forecast 13m for the PS3 that year.

If Sony hit that forecast LTD would have reached 76.9m

Last Q PS3 shipped 1.1m, making it 78m, this quarter they shipped 2m, making it 80m.

That's IF they hit their FY forecast target, we've heard nothing. Up till now I've believed they did hit that target, but them expecting 10m PS3's this FY shows me they're too optimistic.

They've often missed PS3 forecasts by 500k - 1m. If they hit 12.4m last year instead of the 13m they targetted, then they're on par with 360. 79.4m.

Fact is, Sony is still silent. They've not said PS3 is at 80 and they've not said it's overtaken Xbox 360. Until they do I'm gonna assume 360 is ahead.

Sony will not miss the opportunity to announce they're second worldwide with PS3, anyone who thinks otherwise is foolish IMO.


It's certainly not weird to question whether or not PS3 has hit 80m and/or passed 360 when Sony is silent as a rock about it. Passing 360 and hitting 80m are two major milestones and you'd definitely expect Sony to say...something.



Munkeh111 said:
Seece said:
So PS3 is around 80 million exactly, very interesting.

(could be swung either way but I doubt it)

They apparently said 75m in Feb (from wiki with this source http://sg.entertainment.yahoo.com/news/sony-announce-launch-playstation-reports-170937556.html)

And since then they have shipped about 5m consoles. For comparison, wiki says the 360 has shipped 79.4m as of the end of Septmber. So they have basically sold the same and probably won't overtake the Wii

Problem with this is we don't know when that 75m was. If it was Dec 31st or a week before that was published. Microsoft for instance just said they hit 80mill, making people to believe they'd ship 1.8m this quarter, turns out they did 1.2m and they added 600k from October shipments.

Even if it's 75m Dec 31st, we know they did 1.1m and 2m the last 2 quarters, but we don't have any idea what they did in Q1, which featured a boost in PS2 as they tied up lose ends.

Lets say the 75m was Dec 31st.

75m + 1.1m + 2m = 78.1m plus whatever the shipped in Q1 this year, the previous Q1 (I'm talking calender years if this is confusing you) they shipped 1.9m. So if it was flat YoY it would be exactly 80 million. Problem is tho it likely wasn't flat, as the last 2 quarters have shown they're much lower than most expected.

Like I said it rests on how well PS3 did last FY, which Sony have shed no light on. If they hit the target they're ahead of 360, if they missed it by a 600k or more then they're behind. Either scenario is entirely believeable. Hence, open ended.



 

Seece said:
Munkeh111 said:

They apparently said 75m in Feb (from wiki with this source http://sg.entertainment.yahoo.com/news/sony-announce-launch-playstation-reports-170937556.html)

And since then they have shipped about 5m consoles. For comparison, wiki says the 360 has shipped 79.4m as of the end of Septmber. So they have basically sold the same and probably won't overtake the Wii

Problem with this is we don't know when that 75m was. If it was Dec 31st or a week before that was published. Microsoft for instance just said they hit 80mill, making people to believe they'd ship 1.8m this quarter, turns out they did 1.2m and they added 600k from October shipments.

Even if it's 75m Dec 31st, we know they did 1.1m and 2m the last 2 quarters, but we don't have any idea what they did in Q1, which featured a boost in PS2 as they tied up lose ends.

Lets say the 75m was Dec 31st.

75m + 1.1m + 2m = 78.1m plus whatever the shipped in Q1 this year, the previous Q1 (I'm talking calender years if this is confusing you) they shipped 1.9m. So if it was flat YoY it would be exactly 80 million. Problem is tho it likely wasn't flat, as the last 2 quarters have shown they're much lower than most expected.

Like I said it rests on how well PS3 did last FY, which Sony have shed no light on. If they hit the target they're ahead of 360, if they missed it by a 600k or more then they're behind. Either scenario is entirely believeable. Hence, open ended.

It also doesn't really matter. Both consoles have sold plenty...



Munkeh111 said:
Seece said:
Munkeh111 said:

They apparently said 75m in Feb (from wiki with this source http://sg.entertainment.yahoo.com/news/sony-announce-launch-playstation-reports-170937556.html)

And since then they have shipped about 5m consoles. For comparison, wiki says the 360 has shipped 79.4m as of the end of Septmber. So they have basically sold the same and probably won't overtake the Wii

Problem with this is we don't know when that 75m was. If it was Dec 31st or a week before that was published. Microsoft for instance just said they hit 80mill, making people to believe they'd ship 1.8m this quarter, turns out they did 1.2m and they added 600k from October shipments.

Even if it's 75m Dec 31st, we know they did 1.1m and 2m the last 2 quarters, but we don't have any idea what they did in Q1, which featured a boost in PS2 as they tied up lose ends.

Lets say the 75m was Dec 31st.

75m + 1.1m + 2m = 78.1m plus whatever the shipped in Q1 this year, the previous Q1 (I'm talking calender years if this is confusing you) they shipped 1.9m. So if it was flat YoY it would be exactly 80 million. Problem is tho it likely wasn't flat, as the last 2 quarters have shown they're much lower than most expected.

Like I said it rests on how well PS3 did last FY, which Sony have shed no light on. If they hit the target they're ahead of 360, if they missed it by a 600k or more then they're behind. Either scenario is entirely believeable. Hence, open ended.

It also doesn't really matter. Both consoles have sold plenty...

Indeed.



 

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justinian said:

C'mon. I did not change the post. Re-read my post.

You put up a fair and decent fight without delving into the inane, as so many people do causing me to loose interest and not respond.

For that you have my respect.

Edit: My argument is not with the EDD making money. It's about the xbox making money. I agree that it is but as it stands estimates put that at about 25% of EDD. Not the billions that you claimed. I will only however produce this when from a more reliable source.

well, without the losses for kin and zune, payments to nokia and maybe more, the profits of edd would have been higher. and the money has to come from something and if all that stuff made a loss in the last years it is very likely that xbox made a very nice profit in the last years (obviously not in the first). and something like skype isn't so long a part of microsoft and i think it also burned a lot of money at least in the first year. in that year, profit of the division went from 1.x billion to i think only a few hundred million.

maybe xbox is only 25% of the whole division right now with skype and what windows phone is nowadays (with huge payments to nokia the last years)  but the years where skype wasn't even a part of microsoft or where it was much smaller in 2011, xbox was a much bigger percentual part of edd.

just check something like fy11, xbox was the driving force for edd and was much more than 25% of the division. and exactly in this fiscal year, the profit jumped also a lot. don't really remember the numbers anymore and are also to lazy to check all of that but i think xbox was very profitable the last years, just the profit margin is maybe not enough for some...

 

 



Seece said:

 

I will get shredded for this, but there is a chance 360 is still ahead.

Very creative, if not desperate math to keep XBox360 ahead. Look, it is very simple:

PS3 sales up to Oc1,2013: 83.5mio - FY12 PS2 sales.

So in order to sell less than XBox360, Sony would have had to sell more than 4.1mio PS2s. 4.1mio was total sales of PS2 in FY11, into a market that was crumbling fast (FY09: 7.3mio, FY10 6.4mio, FY11 4.1mio). I think a good estimate for FY12 shipments would be anywhere from 2m (pessimist) to 3.5m (optimist) given the rapid market shrinking. (And yes, the PS3 is overtracked here but that is another discussion)



drkohler said:
Seece said:

 

I will get shredded for this, but there is a chance 360 is still ahead.

Very creative, if not desperate math to keep XBox360 ahead. Look, it is very simple:

PS3 sales up to Oc1,2013: 83.5mio - FY12 PS2 sales.

So in order to sell less than XBox360, Sony would have had to sell more than 4.1mio PS2s. 4.1mio was total sales of PS2 in FY11, into a market that was crumbling fast (FY09: 7.3mio, FY10 6.4mio, FY11 4.1mio). I think a good estimate for FY12 shipments would be anywhere from 2m (pessimist) to 3.5m (optimist) given the rapid market shrinking. (And yes, the PS3 is overtracked here but that is another discussion)

So you're going on record to say Sony smashed their FY target and being up YOY last year despite ... actually being down each quarter in Japan, EU and US. That's what you're saying, and you have no proof. Okay.

What I said made use of the infomation they had and assumed Sony hit their FY target.

You described what you're doing perfectly, creative maths. Not using logic :)



 

RolStoppable said:
tiffac said:

They will probably "bundle" the Vite TV numbers with the PSP/Vita numbers to reach that 5M sale xD

No doubt about Vita TV going to be combined with regular Vita sales, but Vita TV isn't going to add much to the tally. I expect sales on the same level as the PSP go, or worse. It's also Japan-only for the time being.

Yikes, I hope not but I understand what you are saying since the VTV has more chances of success outside of Japan which has become the handheld gaming capital of the world. lol!



Not what I was hoping for. Not a massive loss for the gaming division is alright I guess. Next quarter will be, though?

Good PS3 shipments. Shame about the muddling of PSP & Vita.