With the prelim data in, and the first week of Smash Brothers Brawl data officially in, I am going to attempt to project how well Smash Brothers will sell. To predict yourself, take a look at this:

Italicized numbers are estimates, but for week two I am more confident because of the preliminary data figure, which is why I bolded it.

SSB is Super Smash Brothers for N64 (late January 1999).

SSBM is Super Smash Brothers Melee for GC (mid November 2001)

SSBB is Super Smash Brothers Brawl for Wii (February 1 2008)

For reference, weeks nine and ten for both SSB and SSBB are boosted from Golden Week. SSBM saw boosts from the Dec-Jan season.

Also at launch:

SSB launched to 4099k total N64s in Japan in 1999 (N64 had been out since June 1996)

SSBM launched to 475k total GCs in Japan in 2001 (GC had been out since Sept 2001)

SSBB launched to 5205k total Wiis in Japan in 2008 (Wii had been out since Dec 2006)

Note that Smash Brothers went on to outsell Super Mario 64 and all other N64 titles in Japan except for Mario Kart 64. For Gamecube, Smash Brothers Melee was the only million selling title in Japan. For Wii, Smash is to be the 5th million seller for Wii in Japan, and it should stay ahead of Mario Party 8 for the duration of its life among the current million sellers. The title will likely outsell Mario Kart and Super Mario Galaxy lifetime in Japan. Short term, Brawl may (for a few weeks, depending on legs) exceed Wii Fit sales in Japan, although it is unlikely to do so lifetime.

Regardless, it is looking as though Brawl will be Nintendo's first game starring its franchise characters in Japan to sell over 2 million copies since Mario Kart 64 launched in 1997.

You get a typo on when GC launched

Nice read. But how praytell do you go about predicting future sales, more than a couple days in advance? Like what's the spike from week 8 to 9?

Thx for the interesting predicition of you.

@ Rol

That was only one example. I mean, I just wanted to know how he went about predicting the sales for anything past this week?

I can't see the table past week 9 for some reason. Anyhow, it stands to reason that Brawl will crush its predecessors because the installed base of the Wii is fantastic and is growing rapidly compared to the N64. Plus, the N64 smash didn't have the advantage of being a sequel.

So the question is will SSBB break the 2M mark in Japan within those ten weeks?

According to your predictions it makes it to 1.96M.

i love your info thanks again

 In the short run yes, in the long run, well we'll have to see but I don't believe so

Also remember that Melee was released just before the holiday season(thus the very similiar to SMG legs... up down up down...