Many people don't pre-order games like Pokemon. Or, as repeated many times in this thread, most Nintendo games for that matter. Also, I suspect that the Pre-Orders for X/Y on VGC are low, in some way.

looks like Pokemon be a sucess hurt people feelings. Maybe we should ban Pokemon X/Y?

Ok but XY will still destroy your prediction no matter wat. I forget if you said 6mil lifetime or was it 10mil lifetime? either way its going to surpass that

It was 12M lifetime. Yours was 20M? Or was it 18M?

it was 12mil? I guess somebody else said 10mil. I said it'll do a minimum of 15mil but can do over 20mil if nintendo advertises the hell out it! My lifetime prediction was 18.5mil from Jan. I just remembered you kept saying it'll decline cuz Diamond/Pearl was higher than Black/White

If it's 15M, that'll be a decline then. So, 18.5M, huh. And yes, it'll be a decline - because that's what's happening to most of the Nintendo franchises. Plus, the trend is downwards for Pokemon. So far from the 30M it debuted with.

Why are you counting the original? Obviously it went down, pokemon wen it came out was the thing in the decade, like how Super Mario Bros was in the 80s, anyway BW almost did 15mil so XY will not decline and surpass your prediction by millions. Also DS been out for 10 years now, 3ds games will keep on increasing and their are games on 3ds that have or will have more sales than the DS version!

Install base means little in this case, because although with much higher install base (BW was released later in DS's life compared to D/P) it could not beat D/P overall sales, and D/P died off after a few years of its original release. I wouldn't look into install base here, because the same fans of Pokemon will likely be buying the games at launch anyway. The numbers will be around their usual vicinities. 

XY going to kill BW #s

It's probably gonna sell more than that. maybe close to or more than 3 million i Japan alone then a few million in the US, and Europe each and then a million or so in the rest of the world.