Less than that if the Nintendo exclusives atract enough atention to the console.

It should be pretty solid.

Don't see it north of 50 million, but that would be awesome.

Ah, Socom. Such a shame you had to go. While it's obvoius that these games had shooting implemented, no one can deny that R&C and J&D are platformers, although more explosive ones. But just like that, it can be said that Nintendo games can change too. Metroid 3 was 1st person shooting, other m was a 3 way mix, Zelda has its sword fighting, Kid Iccarus is fast based 3rd person shooting, Star Fox Adventures was 3rd person shooting part time.

What I'm trying to say is that Nintendo CAN change, they just never had a reason to. If People demand change, Nintendo will show its corporate side and change. And if the changes create games that bring people to buy consoles, as The Last Of Us and Halo did for PS3/Xbox, then Nintendo will gain the Wii U's success.

I don't see it north of 30million in 3 years. Gamecube sold 3.8mil by the end of it's first FY and 6.68 by the following October. Wii U was 350k short its first FY and only shipped 160k the first quarter. That means it will need to ship 3 million this quarter ending sept 30 to be even with gamecube. Luckily for Wii U though Gamecube had a very underwhelming 3rd and 4th quarter. So even though they will be probably be 2.5mil behind going into the holidays they have a chance to make it back up. But still, beating the Gamecube just means more than 21.75mil units world wide. Not much of an accomplishment. Even then when I look at the numbers and estimate what I think are reasonable sales for it's position I still find it coming up 500k short from Gamecube by it's second FY. I honestly think Nintendo will ship less than 6million this year. I mean, it would be about 4mil during the holidays which would be better than last year by 33% and a million for 4th quarter which would be about a 200% increase. I think when Nintendo estimated the 9mil this year they didn't expect to go any lower than the 390k for the quarter. They were probably expecting it to level of and probably being able to ship more than that it's first two quarters. 

id say 30m was a healthy estimate for the console, more than that and i would be surprised, less than that and i wouldn't be surprised very much.

They won't be able to ship that many let alone sell them. New consoles are ALWAYS supply constrained, and if the rumour from CBOAT on Gaf about ESRAM having poor yields is anything to go by then Microsoft in particular are going to have problems.

Every gen all of the platform holders claim to have loads of stock on the way but launch sales always fall short of the numbers people are expecting. Remember, the PS3 did around 1.7m and the 360 did 1.5m during their launch periods last gen. Both the PS4 and One will also do under 2m, just like their predecessors.

Sony has over 1million preorders that they will fill plus extra for first come first serve in first week. You are comparing a ps3 that was launched in maybe 4 countries compared to a ps4 that will have over 30. Plain and simple fact is: you are wrong. Sony will meet their 5million projection and they will ship 4 million this holiday.

One can only hope.

Well we'll have to wait and see whether I'm right or wrong, but I'm quite confident.

I see it in elo hell