Wooahhh, slow down. Those are some pretty weird sales. PS4 has GIGANTIC hype, but only for gamers here on forums, so it should over 2m easily. And while Wii U has what I think is the best holyday season ever, it won't sell over 5m the rest of the year.

I think Wii U will be at 5-6m by the end of this year, PS4 under 4m, maybe under 3m, and Xbox One close to 3m but won't reach.

I won't own one until next year but I see it being a little more successful than the N64 and having a good number of quality titles. There will probably be a few games that make very good use of the gamepad, and then the rest will just use it for a map/off screen play.

Are you saying you only expect around 20 million units sold?

Well, honestly, it does have that chance. Nintendo wanted 5.5mil last FY and missed by 2.05million consoles. Their next forcast is 9 million. Let's face it, Nintendo will not ship 8.9million in 9 months. They will probably miss that by quite a bit too. I'm thinking 7mil this FY IF they have a huge holiday season. (HUGE! as in unprecedented sales for a console in it's position). That means in 2 FY it would only have about 10mil in sales. (I'm pegging for less than that. Wii U will have a 4 million gap when Ps4 launches and it won't increase and Sony will meet their projections of 5million).  Even if it shows growt YoY again it would still be well short of GC numbers and it would need something to spur growth again... I don't know if it will see another increase in it's 4th year. And how much longer do you think it will be untill Nintendo introduces another console?

I was thinking it would sell 40mil total at the begining of this year... now I'm not sure it can sell 35mil total

I doubt it will surpass lifetime sales of what the PS3/Xbox360 have now, but I have faith that it will go past 60m. Just like the PS3 and 3DS, the massive need for change will result in the Wii U getting exclusive games that no-one can resists, much like The Last Of Us, Uncharted, and God Of War did for PS3.

That is what I am assuming right now. To do any better it needs to retain some of the Wii audience. They dropped the Wiimote so Wii Sports is out of the question, so I think we'll have a better idea when Wii Fit U comes out. Plus with rumours of VR glasses for both MS and Sony, I imagine one of them will take off and claim the casual crowd this gen.

What makes you think it will be at the 33m mark?

I don't think hitting 7m this FY is such a crazy idea. They're releasing tons of big hitters and have a very affordable console. I guess we'll just have to see what the software does for it this holiday.

It will not hit 60mil. The Wii had the shortest life span and it was number 1 last gen. The Wii U will not have nearly as long as the Wii which didnt have nearly as long as the Ps360 and it would need the ps360 type lifespan for 60million. Not only that but the games you listed are Sony 1st party titles and Nintendo isn't known for making games like that.

The gamecube released several big hitters by this point in its life, whereas the WiiU has not, yet I'm pretty sure the Wii U is tracking close to the GC's hardware sales at this point. Also, The GC suffered partially because a lot of people had a PS2 because it came out a year earlier and really took off. This holiday I see as a soft relaunch of the Wii U, so it's essentially starting at the same time as the other consoles only with a 4m+ lead. There's also the fact that many of Nintendo's franchises are likely more popular than they were with the GC thanks to the Wii introducing them to a huge install base. Plus the WiiU gamepad could recapture some of the casual audience once the console gains some momentum, which is something the GC controller never had a chance of doing.

I don't know. The only thing I know is that by 2016 I already will have enjoyed Zelda Wii U, man.....sometimes I wish I could time travel.