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Forums - Nintendo - Nintendo US Year 1 Console Sales (N64 vs. GCN vs. Wii vs. Wii U)

zorg1000 on 13 September 2013
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:
gigantor21 said:
zorg1000 said:
Cool chart

But one thing I took from this is u cant judge a console by its first year sales. N64 was tracking only 400k behind Wii arlt this point in USA but in the long run only sold about half.

I think these numbers say a lot actually.

According to the chart, the system hasn't come anywhere near outpacing the Gamecube since January. Pikmin was the first game it had that cracked the top 10 in something like 7 months. And it's only sold about half as much as the GC in the same time frame. The PS3 performed much better in its first year despite being a $600 running gag with production problems--it's lowest selling quarter so far was 700k, while the WiiU has seen numbers as low as 160k before it's first birthday.

That's absolutely abysmal. If we're talking about the N64, it's not going to sell much more than that globally at this rate.

If I recall correctly PS3 was tracking behind GC Iin the same time frame and is now 2x GC lifetime sales in USA. Also N64 only tracking 10% behind Wii up to this point then going on to sell less than 50% of Wii lifetime sales in USA. Those 2 things prove that first year sales dont have no bearing on lifetime sales.


There's also never been a console that's sold as poorly as the Wii U out of the gates (from Nintendo or anyone else) in the game industry and gone on to be a relative success.

Even the PS3 at $600 was selling better than this.

Sony always had the safety blanket of virtually all major third party support backing them, all they had to do was get the price of the system down, which was inevitable. Wii U is a far trickier situation for Nintendo.

What they really need desperately is new breakout hit ... something that isn't Mario/Zelda/DK to come out and drive sales of the console to someone other than same group of 20 million Nintendo fans.

That's what Wii Sports did, and while that's probably impossible to replicate, Street Fighter II and GoldenEye are other examples of games that galvanized new audiences for Nintendo and caused a large uptick in sales. You cannot rely on Mario to do everything, all you're going to get is a console with a very narrow fanbase.

All im saying is a product can go from desirable to undesirable and vice versa. A third example I have is that 360 was tracking behind Xbox and barrly above GC but not it has roughly 3x the install base of either of them in lifetime sales for USA.

It can but that usually requires some kind of *new* break out hit software. Like Pokemon coming out of nowhere in the mid-1990s to make the Game Boy relevant again. Does Nintendo have something like that coming? Are they even trying?

The 360 also had a lot of manufacturing/supply problems early on. Comparing the Wii U to either the PS3/360 may ultimately be futile.

Is the Wii U ever going to have anywhere close to the third party backing the 360/PS3 enjoyed for years and years? If the answer is no, then there's gotta be something else here in this equation that's a game changer.

Like u said, Nintendo has provided new break out hits many times Iin the past

 Mario Bros, Pokemon, Nintendogs, Brain Training, Wii Sports are all examples of this. Its absolutely possible Wii U has one in its lifetime.



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Soundwave on 13 September 2013
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:
gigantor21 said:
zorg1000 said:
Cool chart

But one thing I took from this is u cant judge a console by its first year sales. N64 was tracking only 400k behind Wii arlt this point in USA but in the long run only sold about half.

I think these numbers say a lot actually.

According to the chart, the system hasn't come anywhere near outpacing the Gamecube since January. Pikmin was the first game it had that cracked the top 10 in something like 7 months. And it's only sold about half as much as the GC in the same time frame. The PS3 performed much better in its first year despite being a $600 running gag with production problems--it's lowest selling quarter so far was 700k, while the WiiU has seen numbers as low as 160k before it's first birthday.

That's absolutely abysmal. If we're talking about the N64, it's not going to sell much more than that globally at this rate.

If I recall correctly PS3 was tracking behind GC Iin the same time frame and is now 2x GC lifetime sales in USA. Also N64 only tracking 10% behind Wii up to this point then going on to sell less than 50% of Wii lifetime sales in USA. Those 2 things prove that first year sales dont have no bearing on lifetime sales.


There's also never been a console that's sold as poorly as the Wii U out of the gates (from Nintendo or anyone else) in the game industry and gone on to be a relative success.

Even the PS3 at $600 was selling better than this.

Sony always had the safety blanket of virtually all major third party support backing them, all they had to do was get the price of the system down, which was inevitable. Wii U is a far trickier situation for Nintendo.

What they really need desperately is new breakout hit ... something that isn't Mario/Zelda/DK to come out and drive sales of the console to someone other than same group of 20 million Nintendo fans.

That's what Wii Sports did, and while that's probably impossible to replicate, Street Fighter II and GoldenEye are other examples of games that galvanized new audiences for Nintendo and caused a large uptick in sales. You cannot rely on Mario to do everything, all you're going to get is a console with a very narrow fanbase.

All im saying is a product can go from desirable to undesirable and vice versa. A third example I have is that 360 was tracking behind Xbox and barrly above GC but not it has roughly 3x the install base of either of them in lifetime sales for USA.

It can but that usually requires some kind of *new* break out hit software. Like Pokemon coming out of nowhere in the mid-1990s to make the Game Boy relevant again. Does Nintendo have something like that coming? Are they even trying?

The 360 also had a lot of manufacturing/supply problems early on. Comparing the Wii U to either the PS3/360 may ultimately be futile.

Is the Wii U ever going to have anywhere close to the third party backing the 360/PS3 enjoyed for years and years? If the answer is no, then there's gotta be something else here in this equation that's a game changer.

Like u said, Nintendo has provided new break out hits many times Iin the past

 Mario Bros, Pokemon, Nintendogs, Brain Training, Wii Sports are all examples of this. Its absolutely possible Wii U has one in its lifetime.

Generally speaking those come early in the product cycle. Nintendogs, Brain Training, Wii Sports, Super Mario Bros. (USA) all launched in the first year, so did GoldenEye and Street Fighter II. And usually they are new franchises or effectively new franchises.

Pokemon is basically a miracle of epic proportions, I'm not sure if the game industry will ever see something like that again.

I think Nintendo bet the farm on Nintendo Land being that "new" break out hit. Or at the very least I think they were hoping it could be some kind of Smash Bros. + Wii Sports amalgam (how could that not be a huge hit?).

Maybe Nintendo's big bet for the back half of the Wii U's lifespan is making some kind of kids franchise using the NFC feature and that becoming huge, but they probably should not waste much more time getting it ready because Skylanders and Disney Infinity are already getting to that crowd, one wonders how many plastic figures parents will tolerate being scattered around their living room.



swii26 on 13 September 2013

Kinda crazy how things change going from the best console launch (with shortages) to the worst.



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Soundwave on 13 September 2013
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

Nobody wants a Wii period. 2006 was a long time ago in pop culture terms. The O.C. is not the biggest TV show for teens anymore, Paris Hilton is not the "hot" celebrity everyone just has to follow, even something like Twilight has become a bit passe. Baggy  jeans gave way to skinny jeans. Atkins diet came and went. Facebook was some new thing your parents didn't know about yet. Trends have changed. I mean sh+t, eight years ago the most interesting thing you could do on your phone was play Snake on it and check your voicemail.

Nintendo *has* tried to replicate the success of their earlier blue ocean hits. Nintendogs + cats, Brain Training 3DS, Nintendo Land ... it ain't working dude. The 3DS is selling reasonably alright as a hardware, so by your logic then Brain Training should do fine, it's not that long ago that it was pushing 20 million units every time out. That's the reason why there isn't a Wii Sports 3 right now -- because Nintendo knows deep down that it wouldn't be the same hit it was seven years ago.

Nintendo Land was their attempt to put a different spin on that idea, and it failed as a system driver.

Casual gamers got a taste of $1 games that scratch their gaming itch, why should they go back to $50-$60 games? They're not that invested in gaming, it's just a fun little pass time that they maybe get around to doing a few times a week at best. Guess which business model is cannibalizing which market.

Did you even read what I wrote? Nintendo sees those titles as token games nowadays. They only make some of them, because they feel that they are obligated to make them, but their overall software and hardware strategy is going into a completely different direction where they went as far as putting "U" into the Wii U's name to emphasize their dedication to the hardcore gamer.

And no, the 3DS isn't selling "reasonably alright" when you put it up against the DS. A fact of which you remind us constantly, so you of all people should know.

Also, those casual gamers you speak of played free browser games on the PC before the Wii came out. They bought Wiis, because it was a console made for them (and anyone else who enjoyed video games). The things that mattered were emphasized while the bullshit was removed, hence why the Wii sold faster than any other console before it. The Wii U does the opposite, that's why it tanks in sales. Something like Wii Sports is not available on the PC, tablets and smartphones, therefore those devices can't act as substitutes for Nintendo products and thus they aren't cannibalizing Nintendo's market. Instead, Nintendo is destroying their market on their own by stopping to do what made them successful.

So what do you want them to do? Make Wii Sports 3 and everything will be OK? The 3DS has Brain Training and Nintendogs and Style Savvy too ... so why is it not selling like the original DS?

You think casuals really want to play the same type of thing they were playing seven years ago? You think they really give two craps about whether or not that experience is now in HD? $50 for Wii Fit U + paying another $300 for a new box so I can play a few new mini-games on my Wii Fit board that's buried under a pound of dust? Who's doing backflips in excitement over that idea?

The challenge with that market is coming up with the NEXT new thing. Once you find it you have a few years to mine that goldmine, but once it goes dry ... it's dry.

And finding that NEXT new thing is extremely difficult. It's like walking up to J.K. Rowling and saying "well just create another franchise with wizards and stuff in it, it'll be just as successful as Harry Potter. Simple." Things don't work like that. If it was that easy everyone would do it.

There's nothing special about having an intuitive interface today either ... I mean so what? A 3 year old can use an iPad, it's no big deal any longer that the Wiimote is easier to use than a 15 button Dual Shock. Hell, Microsoft even offering games with zero buttons if that's what floats your boat. "Bullshit removed" gaming is not a selling point any more. Every modern gaming platform has an assortment of "motion/touch" based gaming for those who can't deal with complex game pads.

Sony is actually probably the only smart one in understanding that they can't compete with Apple for the casual crowd, so they didn't bother to weigh their console down with a $100 control input like Nintendo/MS have done. As a result the PS4 probably is going to sell far better out of the gates than any recent game machine. They know the core gamer is where they need to make hay and wisely have opted to make a console for that audience and kept costs reasonable by sticking with a regular ol' controller and not trying to shoe horn in some expensive gimmick that most games won't even use.



Soundwave on 13 September 2013
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

So what do you want them to do? Make Wii Sports 3 and everything will be OK?

You think casuals really want to play the same type of thing they were playing seven years ago? You think they really give two craps about whether or not that experience is now in HD? $50 for Wii Fit U + paying another $300 for a new box so I can play a few new mini-games on my Wii Fit board that's buried under a pound of dust? Who's doing backflips in excitement over that idea?

The challenge with that market is coming up with the NEXT new thing. Once you find it you have a few years to mine that goldmine, but once it goes dry ... it's dry.

And finding that NEXT new thing is extremely difficult. It's like walking up to J.K. Rowling and saying "well just create another franchise with wizards and stuff in it, it'll be just as successful as Harry Potter. Simple." Things don't work like that. If it was that easy everyone would do it.

There's nothing special about having an intuitive interface today either ... I mean so what? A 3 year old can use an iPad, it's no big deal any longer that the Wiimote is easier to use than a 15 button Dual Shock. Hell, Microsoft even offering games with zero buttons if that's what floats your boat. "Bullshit removed" gaming is not a selling point any more. Every modern gaming platform has an assortment of "motion/touch" based gaming for those who can't deal with complex game pads.

Sony is actually probably the only smart one in understanding that they can't compete with Apple for the casual crowd, so they didn't bother to weigh their console down with a $100 control input like Nintendo/MS have done. As a result the PS4 probably is going to sell far better out of the gates than any recent game machine. They know the core gamer is where they need to make hay and wisely have opted to make a console for that audience and kept costs reasonable by sticking with a regular ol' controller and not trying to shoe horn in some expensive gimmick that most games won't even use.

It's like nothing gets through to you. There isn't really any fix for the Wii U, because that ship had sailed by E3 2012. It was a done deal before the system even launched. Now it's just a matter of riding it out with the least amount of damage to the Nintendo brand as a whole. A humble Nintendo that makes games that people want to buy would certainly be better than an arrogant Nintendo that tries to push their initial strategy through. Get the system to sell 30-40m units in its lifetime, then for the next generation come out with hardware that the market won't reject.

Casual gamers play the same type of thing over and over again. Just look at FIFA, Madden and CoD sales. Nintendo isn't close to a yearly rhythm with their IPs, so releasing sequels wouldn't be an issue. At no point did I say that HD graphics would excite Wii owners. Likewise, at no point did I say that Nintendo should have made a $300 console. Rather those things are among the reasons why I was against the Wii U from the start. I am not like you who thought the system had a good chance to succeed and is now blaming the casuals because it didn't. The failure was long in the making, because Nintendo turned their back on Wii owners and designed an anti-Wii that was supposed to bring back hardcore gamers.

Removing bullshit isn't a simple equation of adding motion or touch based controls. Removing bullshit means a pure gaming machine without hassles like paying for useless hardware (whether that is a controller or processing power that is overkill), mandatory installs for software or anything else that makes the console more like a PC. When consoles become as annoying as PCs, you might as well put up with a PC. Online multiplayer behind a paywall is bullshit too.

So why aren't casual players ponying up for Nintendogs (30 million sold on DS) and Brain Training (20 million+) on the 3DS?

*crickets*

What's the barrier there? The 3DS is basically the exact same design as the DS, just with the added novelty of a 3D screen that can be shut off at any time.

Also FIFA/Madden/COD and Wii Sports/Wii Fit/Nintendogs are completely different audiences, lol. How many grandmas and soccer moms are lining up for the new Madden?

Just because the COD/Madden fanbase are "jocks" instead of "nerds" who don't give two poops about things like Zelda or Final Fantasy doesn't mean they're not hardcore players.

When Wii Sports came out there was *nothing* like it on any other platform. Even a lot of PS3/360 fans bought a Wii too to have something around for family/friend gatherings/parties. But today? There's a Wii Sports equivalent on every system and about a 100 different third party knock-offs of the mini-game idea.

It's not easy to create a phenomenon, making a "new" Wii that's just as successful as the first is far harder than making the next Playstation 2. Timing has to be on your side, the audience has to be hungry for what you're offering, and competitiors can't be offering the same type of experience. That's far more difficult.

The Wii U isn't designed for hardcore gamers either ... the only game that Nintendo's released for Wii U in a year that's expressly aimed at the hardcore player is Ninja Gaiden 3, which is a port of a crap PS3/360 game. Nintendo Land, NSMBU, Sing Party, Game & Wario are all aimed at the casual play/"get Uncle Jack off the couch and playing!" audience.