zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:
gigantor21 said:
zorg1000 said:
Cool chart
But one thing I took from this is u cant judge a console by its first year sales. N64 was tracking only 400k behind Wii arlt this point in USA but in the long run only sold about half. |
I think these numbers say a lot actually.
According to the chart, the system hasn't come anywhere near outpacing the Gamecube since January. Pikmin was the first game it had that cracked the top 10 in something like 7 months. And it's only sold about half as much as the GC in the same time frame. The PS3 performed much better in its first year despite being a $600 running gag with production problems--it's lowest selling quarter so far was 700k, while the WiiU has seen numbers as low as 160k before it's first birthday.
That's absolutely abysmal. If we're talking about the N64, it's not going to sell much more than that globally at this rate.
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If I recall correctly PS3 was tracking behind GC Iin the same time frame and is now 2x GC lifetime sales in USA. Also N64 only tracking 10% behind Wii up to this point then going on to sell less than 50% of Wii lifetime sales in USA. Those 2 things prove that first year sales dont have no bearing on lifetime sales.
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There's also never been a console that's sold as poorly as the Wii U out of the gates (from Nintendo or anyone else) in the game industry and gone on to be a relative success.
Even the PS3 at $600 was selling better than this.
Sony always had the safety blanket of virtually all major third party support backing them, all they had to do was get the price of the system down, which was inevitable. Wii U is a far trickier situation for Nintendo.
What they really need desperately is new breakout hit ... something that isn't Mario/Zelda/DK to come out and drive sales of the console to someone other than same group of 20 million Nintendo fans.
That's what Wii Sports did, and while that's probably impossible to replicate, Street Fighter II and GoldenEye are other examples of games that galvanized new audiences for Nintendo and caused a large uptick in sales. You cannot rely on Mario to do everything, all you're going to get is a console with a very narrow fanbase.
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All im saying is a product can go from desirable to undesirable and vice versa. A third example I have is that 360 was tracking behind Xbox and barrly above GC but not it has roughly 3x the install base of either of them in lifetime sales for USA.
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It can but that usually requires some kind of *new* break out hit software. Like Pokemon coming out of nowhere in the mid-1990s to make the Game Boy relevant again. Does Nintendo have something like that coming? Are they even trying?
The 360 also had a lot of manufacturing/supply problems early on. Comparing the Wii U to either the PS3/360 may ultimately be futile.
Is the Wii U ever going to have anywhere close to the third party backing the 360/PS3 enjoyed for years and years? If the answer is no, then there's gotta be something else here in this equation that's a game changer.
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Like u said, Nintendo has provided new break out hits many times Iin the past
Mario Bros, Pokemon, Nintendogs, Brain Training, Wii Sports are all examples of this. Its absolutely possible Wii U has one in its lifetime.
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Generally speaking those come early in the product cycle. Nintendogs, Brain Training, Wii Sports, Super Mario Bros. (USA) all launched in the first year, so did GoldenEye and Street Fighter II. And usually they are new franchises or effectively new franchises.
Pokemon is basically a miracle of epic proportions, I'm not sure if the game industry will ever see something like that again.
I think Nintendo bet the farm on Nintendo Land being that "new" break out hit. Or at the very least I think they were hoping it could be some kind of Smash Bros. + Wii Sports amalgam (how could that not be a huge hit?).
Maybe Nintendo's big bet for the back half of the Wii U's lifespan is making some kind of kids franchise using the NFC feature and that becoming huge, but they probably should not waste much more time getting it ready because Skylanders and Disney Infinity are already getting to that crowd, one wonders how many plastic figures parents will tolerate being scattered around their living room.
