VXIII said: gum said: Vxii   http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php?reg=Global&ending=Yearly 2013 is not finished you know and with the holidays, Pokemon, Zelda or MH don't worry it will end selling really well this year too. Be careful how you interpret those numbers... It's an indication nothing more. 3DS is going to be huge during the holidays for sure. However, the decline is also too significant to ignore considering a price cut and the XL redesign have already taken place.

I'm not sure you understand what that graph says.  It doesn't indicate anything, other than 3DS sold better than DS through years one and two.  The third data point is incomplete, so no trend can be interpreted.  That's not a continuous graph, but rather a connection of descrete data points with straight lines.

Exclusives, and Kinect 2 being a killer app type feature, could possibly do it.  Outside of that, Microsoft has a number of things working against them.  Hey, maybe ever ONE being a dev box may produce miracles or something

It isn't price here, it is the reality that the Kinect 2 camera had better be a killer feature.  On the price side, Sony is going to be able to beat Microsoft on the price game, by being less expensive.

If Sony comes out of the box and gets over a million console lead over the ONE with the PS4, it is over for Microsoft pretty much.

And I wouldn't bank on Microsoft even being a lock for North America or other regions it has, because of its price point.

It is, of course, much too early to say Sony will win the gen. Right now their approach seems solid, with a reasonable price, a good system and strong 3rd party support. At the very least they should do well, especially when you look at the solid sales of the PS3.

XBox should not be disregarded. The XBox brand is the "it" brand for video games in the US right now. The $500 price tag will kill sales for the One at launch with an equally good alternative available for $100 less. However, MS could change the price at any time and even the playing field if they so choose. Since neither system has even launched yet MS could even change price before launch so it's silly to say what the lifetime sales will be at this stage.

Wii U is currently selling poorly, but I wouldn't count it out either. It presents the cheapest option and the most unique hardware, as well as the most established exclusive software. Nintendo has also shown a great history of developing the "next big thing". The DS was thought to be lost cause against PSP until titles like Brain Age and Nintendogs came along. Wii Sports totally changed things for the whole industry, and so did Wii Fit. While those trends may or may not be dying or dead, it would hardly be surprising if Nintendo released the next hot seller sometime soon that made Wii U and its dual-screen action a must-have item.

So sure, PS4 looks in good shape right now. But things could change with an XBOne price drop. They could definitely change if Nintendo dropped the price and released something innovative on Wii U in the near future. This is especially true for Japan, since PS4 seems to be getting off to a very weak/late start there. I can see several scenarios playing out where PS4 does not lead the industry. Though I can see few where it bombs, either.

I would also add here that Nintendo is with the second screen, the way that Microsoft is with Kinect 2.0. Both MUST be a must-have differentiator, or they don't win. Off chance of exclusive or something else, but the second screen and Kinect 2.0 are the big deal. Nintendo is only $50 less expensive with inferior hardware.

Reality check:

Virtual boy sales from July - Dec 95 = 350,000 (Jp/NA only) or 70,000/mth 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_Boy

WiiU sales from Jan - June '13 = 550,000 (all markets) or 92,000/mth

http://ca.ign.com/articles/2013/07/31/exactly-how-bad-is-the-nintendo-situation

You take Europe and the rest of the world out of that equation and it's selling Virtual Boy numbers.  In fact, for the last four month worse than Virtual Boy dispite being available in far more regions.

Elder Scrolls franchise has stolen the buzz that Zelda once had, and the Wii U, as it is now, isn't getting an Elder Scrolls game.

Id say dont waste your time but if you dont care then go for it. However, i warn you that you are talking to someone who thinks nintendo is profiting on wii u sales already and will drop the price alongside a flagstaff title and it will increase the sales to unprecedented levels of 700% and maintain those sales through its lifespan

Normally, casual buyers are not the core market.  The core market is what makes up early adopters and they buy early.  YES, you can end up showing casuals buying early, as with the Wii.  But, if buying early matters, wouldn't they have bought the Wii U?  They haven't.  As it is now, following sales trends, as they are now, the Wii U isn't showing signs of turning it around (despite having a Mario released with it).  It would be your job to argue the Wii U to dominate to show WHAT titles or features will make the Wii U dominate.  What do you see it as be?  What is out there that will capture the casual market?

Damnit.

Party's over, let's go home people.