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Forums - Sales - LEO-J prediction: IF PS4 launches in OCTOBER, PS4 WILL GO TO #1 BY THE END OF 2013

No chance in hell of this happening.



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Figgycal said:
Zero999 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
 

Things that confused consumers about the Wii U:

1. Tablet

2. Shares less multiplats with the 360 and PS3 whom share the wealth of the last third parties.

3. They can't tell whether it bests the 360 or PS3 in graphics even though its slightly higher.

4. Not enough of the high profile games people expected from launch and not enough third party support even in the current gen.

5. The price was the same or higher than current gen competition.

 

The PS3 pissed off consumers but in numbers it still outsold the Xbox 360's first year on the market. Crazy, eh? This is Sonys lowest selling gen....and nearly 80 million strong in sales. The lowest.

1- there's no tablet

2- it still has most of the big multis that are coming

3- pure lie

4- first part = true, second part = 1/4 true

5- relevance? as far as I know, a new console is suposed to be more expensive than old ones, and wii u is.

He said: "things that confused consumers about the wii U" not "facts".

Many people still don't know that the Wii U is the followup to the Wii - from their reveal it looked like a tablet add-on and the commercials I've seen haen't done a good job at showing the consumer otherwise. Plus it doesn't help that the system looks like a Wii either. A lot of sales of the Wii came from the casual market who don't follow gaming news - calling it the Wii 2 would've been the better way to go.

It does not have the biggest multiplats coming- not by a long shot. It's missing every EA game this year (including Battlefield 4, FIFA, etc), GTA 5, and a bunch of Ubisoft next gen titles.

It certainly won't best the PS4 and Xbox One in which it will be in direct competition with. Not that graphics really matter when it comes to gaming.

Again - it's missing a lot of the big 3rd party games and the ones it has already don't sell all that well, which means we're less likely to see more support.

Being that the Wii U was released ahead of the other next gen consoles and it can't even compete with them - I doubt that it will be able to compete with the PS4 and Xbox One when it will have even more competition.

bolded: gta 5 is not on ps4/xone either. and yes, i has the biggest multiplats: Call of retrocess, watch dogs, batman, AC4. and ubisoft's next gen titles are for 2014 if I recall. remember watch dogs?

bolded2: best in what sense? graphics - no.  sales - most probably yes.

bolded3: amazing "argument". the multis it's getting sell much more than "well".

bolded4: are you posting from an alternate future? who said wii u can't compete with machines that aren't out yet.



Zero999 said:

I keep hearing this "it has to average x units". it will sell great during the holydays and sell well before it. what's the point of pointing the average number?

Because the Wii U isn't selling anywhere close to that number which means the amount it needs during the holiday just keeps going up.  If we're going to the week ending Dec 28th, it needs 316k per week now to hit 10 million by the end of the year.  Even if it gets a decent boost in the US with Pikmin, that number will still go up to ~330k next week.  Considering the Wii U probably won't see those numbers till November at best (and by then, the average weekly number will be a whole lot more.), it just doesn't seem very realistic.  Even if it magically sold 200k a week starting the week ending the 17th, it would need to average 860k a week in December to hit 10 million.  Odds are Nintendo won't even be able to ship enough to make those numbers possible.  Retailers would have already ordered their units before December, and they would do it on the basis of what the Wii U had been selling.

Retailers (especially in Europe) who might still have units from last year aren't going to order a ton of stock on the hope that Mario comes to the rescue in December.

I guess I should also say the numbers in the OP are pretty ridiculous as well.



Kasz216 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
...

Things that confused consumers about the Wii U:

1. Tablet

2. Shares less multiplats with the 360 and PS3 whom share the wealth of the last third parties.

3. They can't tell whether it bests the 360 or PS3 in graphics even though its slightly higher.

4. Not enough of the high profile games people expected from launch and not enough third party support even in the current gen.

5. The price was the same or higher than current gen competition.

 

The PS3 pissed off consumers but in numbers it still outsold the Xbox 360's first year on the market. Crazy, eh? This is Sonys lowest selling gen....and nearly 80 million strong in sales. The lowest.

Correct me if i'm wrong... but isn't the Wii U ahead of the PS3 aligned launches wise?  Or did it catch up?

Wii U started ahead actually.


by my math (sales aligned by launch for each region to compare weeks on market in all markets) the ps3 passed the wiiU after 8 weeks. 

The only charts where wiiU stays ahead for any meaningful period are the ones that don't account for ps3 launching ~5 months late in europe so that wiiU in 3 markets is compared to ps3 in 2 markets.  but the wiiU did start ahead regardless, it launched quite well.

 

@thread - i'm surprised at how many people think leo could be right.  there is going  to be soo much crow and disappointment and thread necro'ing and trolling come january.  looks at historical numbers people and temper your expectations.  leo might as well be predicting 250M...  



Yakuzaice said:
Zero999 said:

I keep hearing this "it has to average x units". it will sell great during the holydays and sell well before it. what's the point of pointing the average number?

Because the Wii U isn't selling anywhere close to that number which means the amount it needs during the holiday just keeps going up.  If we're going to the week ending Dec 28th, it needs 316k per week now to hit 10 million by the end of the year.  Even if it gets a decent boost in the US with Pikmin, that number will still go up to ~330k next week.  Considering the Wii U probably won't see those numbers till November at best (and by then, the average weekly number will be a whole lot more.), it just doesn't seem very realistic.  Even if it magically sold 200k a week starting the week ending the 17th, it would need to average 860k a week in December to hit 10 million.  Odds are Nintendo won't even be able to ship enough to make those numbers possible.  Retailers would have already ordered their units before December, and they would do it on the basis of what the Wii U had been selling.

Retailers (especially in Europe) who might still have units from last year aren't going to order a ton of stock on the hope that Mario comes to the rescue in December.

I guess I should also say the numbers in the OP are pretty ridiculous as well.

the numbers it sold so far didn't magically change the dates that are scheduled to boost sales. the next to chart is pikmin 3, then it will be W101, followed by rayman, w101 in US, wind waker... and the holydays sales will be big for sure.



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Zero999 said:
Figgycal said:
Zero999 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
RolStoppable said:
Not going to happen. The PS4 is no Wii, there's really not much to get excited about. If Sony manages to ship 4m this year, they won't be able to sell them, so matching or exceeding the Wii U is completely out of the question.

Theres nothing to get excited about yet Sonys track record says if Microsoft drops the ball (which means they cannot stop sony from capitalizing) this gen they'll reach close to 100 million this gen or above in 7 years time. Sony is the only company that has been able to do it consistently until Microsoft halved their marketshare. The only special thing about the Wii was that it was a gimmick that casuals will most likely never  do again until another hit gimmick comes out. If you care to wager this, I would be so willing. 

okay, MS cut sony marketshare in half, I'm sure those 100M units for wii had no impact on it.

I know you're being sarcastic, but no it really didn't. Lol. I don't know in what world you're living in where the Wii wasn't bought mostly by casual gamers that weren't interested in gaming. It was a fad. Lol everyone I knew and their grandmothers had a Wii. Literally their 80 year old grandmothers - who used to think gaming is unholy. I have family in Haiti where they have electricity about 3 times a week that have Wii's lol- that's how casual it was.

I suppose that Microsoft making the jump from 30 mil consoles with the Xbox 1 to 77 mil this gen was also because of the Wii... lol

Sure, ps360 sales are ps2's 150M in falf for each, even though some good 40M of those sales were in emerging markets. and 80% of wii sales were from non gamers, okay.

your arrogance makes me laugh. the difference between wii and ps360 audiences is that ps360 is played generally by kids and teens while wii is played by kids, teens, adults and elderly alike. and by the way, the people you call "non-gamers", if they bought a video game to play it, then they're gamers.

I wholeheartedly disagree with that statement. Nintendo does appeal to a more diverse audience than the PS3 and 360, but to say the PS3 and 360 are generally played by kids? I really don't see it- if anything it's mostly played by teens. Nintendo appeals to a larger audience because their games are geared toward children that will grow up with those franchises and continue to play them into adulthood, but it's still predominately a console for kids and to say that somehow the PS3 and 360 are just that while the Wii isn't is factually incorrect. And furthermore - to say that the wii appeals to teens is also incorrect. The Wii was a joke in my high-school; people didn't think it was mature enough for them.

http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/newswire/2009/every-gaming-system-has-its-fans-but-women-like-wii.html

It's an interesting read, but to summarize: Wii is popular amongst adult women and little boys (age 6-11)  while being unpopular amongst teens. the 360 is most popular for 12-17 year olds and the Ps3 is most popular amongst 18-24 year olds.

I didn't call them non-gamers btw. I said casuals that don't normally play games- which is a true statement. I agree that anyone who plays games is a gamer.



Zero999 said:
Figgycal said:
 

He said: "things that confused consumers about the wii U" not "facts".

Many people still don't know that the Wii U is the followup to the Wii - from their reveal it looked like a tablet add-on and the commercials I've seen haen't done a good job at showing the consumer otherwise. Plus it doesn't help that the system looks like a Wii either. A lot of sales of the Wii came from the casual market who don't follow gaming news - calling it the Wii 2 would've been the better way to go.

It does not have the biggest multiplats coming- not by a long shot. It's missing every EA game this year (including Battlefield 4, FIFA, etc), GTA 5, and a bunch of Ubisoft next gen titles.

It certainly won't best the PS4 and Xbox One in which it will be in direct competition with. Not that graphics really matter when it comes to gaming.

Again - it's missing a lot of the big 3rd party games and the ones it has already don't sell all that well, which means we're less likely to see more support.

Being that the Wii U was released ahead of the other next gen consoles and it can't even compete with them - I doubt that it will be able to compete with the PS4 and Xbox One when it will have even more competition.

bolded: gta 5 is not on ps4/xone either. and yes, i has the biggest multiplats: Call of retrocess, watch dogs, batman, AC4. and ubisoft's next gen titles are for 2014 if I recall. remember watch dogs?

bolded2: best in what sense? graphics - no.  sales - most probably yes.

bolded3: amazing "argument". the multis it's getting sell much more than "well".

bolded4: are you posting from an alternate future? who said wii u can't compete with machines that aren't out yet.

Bolded: I'll give you that one. I was just speculating. I suppose being cheaper than the next-gen competition probably makes it more competitive, but if it doesn't get the multiplats- I don't see it happening.

I'm sticking with everything else.



Figgycal said:
Zero999 said:

Sure, ps360 sales are ps2's 150M in falf for each, even though some good 40M of those sales were in emerging markets. and 80% of wii sales were from non gamers, okay.

your arrogance makes me laugh. the difference between wii and ps360 audiences is that ps360 is played generally by kids and teens while wii is played by kids, teens, adults and elderly alike. and by the way, the people you call "non-gamers", if they bought a video game to play it, then they're gamers.

I wholeheartedly disagree with that statement. Nintendo does appeal to a more diverse audience than the PS3 and 360, but to say the PS3 and 360 are generally played by kids? I really don't see it- if anything it's mostly played by teens. Nintendo appeals to a larger audience because their games are geared toward children that will grow up with those franchises and continue to play them into adulthood, but it's still predominately a console for kids and to say that somehow the PS3 and 360 are just that while the Wii isn't is factually incorrect. And furthermore - to say that the wii appeals to teens is also incorrect. The Wii was a joke in my high-school; people didn't think it was mature enough for them.

http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/newswire/2009/every-gaming-system-has-its-fans-but-women-like-wii.html

It's an interesting read, but to summarize: Wii is popular amongst adult women and little boys (age 6-11)  while being unpopular amongst teens. the 360 is most popular for 12-17 year olds and the Ps3 is most popular amongst 18-24 year olds.

I didn't call them non-gamers btw. I said casuals that don't normally play games- which is a true statement. I agree that anyone who plays games is a gamer.

bolded: the pejorative arrogance makes me sad. nintendo games CAN be played by kids (some nintendo games, anyway) but the games are aimed for everyone. I don't understand this necessity to try proving (in vain), the old "nintendo is for kidies".

it's funny how you reacted about ps360 being played mostly by kids and teens. dude, that's the regular video game audience. certainly the number of adults that play video games is growing, but if a home has a video game then the most probable users are the kids and teens. wii changed that by including the adults and elderly from the get go.



Figgycal said:
Zero999 said:

bolded: gta 5 is not on ps4/xone either. and yes, i has the biggest multiplats: Call of retrocess, watch dogs, batman, AC4. and ubisoft's next gen titles are for 2014 if I recall. remember watch dogs?

bolded2: best in what sense? graphics - no.  sales - most probably yes.

bolded3: amazing "argument". the multis it's getting sell much more than "well".

bolded4: are you posting from an alternate future? who said wii u can't compete with machines that aren't out yet.

Bolded: I'll give you that one. I was just speculating. I suppose being cheaper than the next-gen competition probably makes it more competitive, but if it doesn't get the multiplats- I don't see it happening.

I'm sticking with everything else.

and I'm sticking to the fact that if the multis sell well this year, it will encourage the 2014 ones to come too.



Zero999 said:

the numbers it sold so far didn't magically change the dates that are scheduled to boost sales. the next to chart is pikmin 3, then it will be W101, followed by rayman, w101 in US, wind waker... and the holydays sales will be big for sure.

Pikmin would need to sell massive amounts of hardware in the US to get it back on track.  The extra ~25k in Japan and almost nothing in Europe mean very little in terms of getting it to 10 million.  I don't think you can realistically expect W101 or Rayman to do substantially better.

This seems like the same discussion from earlier in the year.  Except back then it was Pikmin and a price cut would be the turning point.  Although even then, the numbers looked fairly unrealistic for the Wii U to achieve.  Now Pikmin hasn't had a significant effect, a price cut doesn't look likely, and the period of poor sales will probably be about two months longer.