How do the numbers more than double after 2015? That seems off.

If you are going to argue that "horsepower doesn't matter" then why should anyone bother upgrading now?   Why not just stick with a PS3, or 360, or one of these Android based consoles (OUYA and onward)?

The argument for the Wii U, is that gamers NEED to have a second screen in their living room.  That is IT for the Wii U.  So, you need to argue why this second screen is such a critical feature that it will win over hardcore gamers that you had stated it would, because the Wii U is supposed to be a "hardcore" console, according to your estimate.  The Wii U is supposed to outdo a PS4 that is more powerful, with much larger internal storage, and ONLY $50 more expensive.  The WiiU is supposed to do this without really an EA support and every third-party turning their nose on it, as far as next gen console content goes.  The Wii U gets current gen stuff, to some extent, but is this stuff really being shown that much better than current gen stuff?

Second screen and Nintendo's exclusives are what the Wii U has.  Is that enough?

Very well done and thought out article, but I have to point out one major flaw. You failed to mention one really big reason why the Wii sold so well, while previous Nintendo console sales were steadily going down with each generation, despite all of them having almost identical 1st party lineup and a much stronger lineup overall. Wii didn't sell only to previous Nintendo console owners.
Nitendo Consoles went all down for their own reason. The big reason was because they only tried to expand gaming once and that was the NES. That's why the wii was so sucessful it expanded. The other consoles were competeing with others.

In fact, it didn't really even sell to previous console owners period. It sold to an audience that was almost completely new to gaming. An audience that bought the console, not because they did some product research and found it matched their preference (as they really had none), but because it was affordable, cute, and was all the buzz their favorite talk show and news hosts raved all about it. So, grandma and grandpa, mommy and daddy, all went went out to buy these new cheap and popular toys for little Susie and Billy that would keep them entertained for years to come. Casual vs. Hardcore isn't the difference between what console someone has purchased, or the games for that matter; it's the difference between how much gaming they have done in the past. Wii owners, on the majority, have done none.
No,They bought it because of the promise of a new era. We can now play games like we are really there. We can acutally play with a toy gun and feel like it is real. The same with sword gameplay,racing and sports. Pressing butttons after being with motion controls felt ancient and backwards. Thing is nintendo stopped giving motion control type games after mario kart wii and wii fit. (Expection is Wii mote plus +)

This explains why the Wii has since become an extremely poor seller, why the 360 and PS3 have remained somewhat consistent, and why the Wii-U isn't selling anywhere close to Wii and will be lucky to even come close to GC numbers. You were right. The Wii sold on inclusiveness, but inclusiveness of families containing people who could care less about gaming. They simply own the console for the mass appeal. The Wii-U doesn't have that, and the audience it's trying to sell to is long since gone.

Wii U goes aganist everything Wii stood for. It is more Gamecube like than Wii like. Gamecube type games bring GC like sales. Also this  economic depression doesn't help. Also Wii sales fell off becuase they abandoned motion gaming and the console itself.  Nitnedo just stopped relasing games by 2011 and barely anything big on 2010. 

You're ideas of a unified games industry are great and all but, alas, they're futile. It jut won't happen. There's still always going to be some sort of huge division in the games industry. People who purchased a PS or Xbox system in the past are going to continue to do so. If Nintendo is trying to create some sort of revolution, they won't be the ones to finish it. They'll have to wait until they can create some new peripheral with mass appeal down the road, and sell it to that generation of casuals. It's not going to be the Wii-U.
It is totally possible. People have no brand loyality. Brand just makes a purchase  "feels" more safe if it has a reconizable brand name. People go where the games go. If all 3rd party games go to Nintendo then gamers will follow. Also their is no need to make a new peripheral, just continue the motion gaming revolution 

I don't mean to come off some sort of dick, btw. I did enjoy the article. I'm just giving my honest opinion.
Nah you're fine, just need  brush up on your history

Very well done and thought out article, but I have to point out one major flaw. You failed to mention one really big reason why the Wii sold so well, while previous Nintendo console sales were steadily going down with each generation, despite all of them having almost identical 1st party lineup and a much stronger lineup overall. Wii didn't sell only to previous Nintendo console owners. In fact, it didn't really even sell to previous console owners period. It sold to an audience that was almost completely new to gaming. An audience that bought the console, not because they did some product research and found it matched their preference (as they really had none), but because it was affordable, cute, and was all the buzz their favorite talk show and news hosts raved all about it. So, grandma and grandpa, mommy and daddy, all went went out to buy these new cheap and popular toys for little Susie and Billy that would keep them entertained for years to come. Casual vs. Hardcore isn't the difference between what console someone has purchased, or the games for that matter; it's the difference between how much gaming they have done in the past. Wii owners, on the majority, have done none. This explains why the Wii has since become an extremely poor seller, why the 360 and PS3 have remained somewhat consistent, and why the Wii-U isn't selling anywhere close to Wii and will be lucky to even come close to GC numbers. You were right. The Wii sold on inclusiveness, but inclusiveness of families containing people who could care less about gaming. They simply own the console for the mass appeal. The Wii-U doesn't have that, and the audience it's trying to sell to is long since gone.

You're ideas of a unified games industry are great and all but, alas, they're futile. It jut won't happen. There's still always going to be some sort of huge division in the games industry. People who purchased a PS or Xbox system in the past are going to continue to do so. If Nintendo is trying to create some sort of revolution, they won't be the ones to finish it. They'll have to wait until they can create some new peripheral with mass appeal down the road, and sell it to that generation of casuals. It's not going to be the Wii-U.

I don't mean to come off some sort of dick, btw. I did enjoy the article. I'm just giving my honest opinion.