impertinence said:
Fusioncode said:
impertinence said:
Fusioncode said:
impertinence said:
I don't typically predict numbers or even trends, but I have said I think we'll see a general contraction in the Video game market. This is because I don't think Nintendo will be able to ignite the market like they need to (this is based purely on percentages as not igniting a mass phenomenon is a lot easier than igniting one) and because I think the number of video game customers will shrink. You (and many others) blame this on tablets and phones. I think that factor is minimal, but I do think that the 'sameness' you've talked about is a double edged sword for MS and Sony. More PC like architectures and games will make the PC itself a more direct competitor and I think as this generation goes on more and more people will do what I would have done today if I was interested in a PS4: Spend the money on upgrading my HTPC instead and get the games through Steam and or piracy.
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This is a strange argument. The only thing PC-like about the new consoles is their system architecture, and that was done in order to make the systems easier to develop for. Even the WiiU uses PowerPC technology for their processor. We don't want another repeat of the PS3's CELL processor from last gen do we? Pretty much everything about the consoles is different. PC games are easily piratable, usually feature modding communities, and primarily sold through digitial means. PCs themeselves are ugradeable which allows them to have state of the art graphics. Consoles are also a much cheaper investment upfront. I see no reason for a vast majority of console gamers to make the switch to PCs.
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Yes, a PC like architecture will mean most 3rd party games will be on one or two of the consoles in question and also PC. For the same amount of money as either of them I could go out now and completely rebuild my computer that I have hooked up to my TV. I could then use that for everything I already do, and also play most of the games coming to those systems. My thinking is that dedicated HTPC's are going to be more common moving forward and will be direct competitors to consoles if they basically become TV connected computers. I see that as a more potential direct threat to the consoles than mobile devices.
Is the argument strange because you don't agree, or based on your unfounded assumption that I argue that the vast majority of console gamers will go set top PC?
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A lot of people go to console gaming because they don't want to deal with all the crap involved with building their own PC. I agree it's not very difficult, but most people don't know that. And I highly doubt anyone could build a computer from scratch for only $400 and have it perform at the same level as a PS4. If I had to estimate a cost it would be closer to $700-800.
You said that:
more and more people will do what I would have done today if I was interested in a PS4: Spend the money on upgrading my HTPC instead and get the games through Steam and or piracy.
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Are you talking about people buying HTPCs or building their own PCs in general? Or do you mean people will just build their own HTPCs to use as an entertainment center? For the record I don't see that happening either because the next gen consoles are already trying to capture that market. Microsoft seems to be marketing XBO exclusively as an all in one entertainment center. Not what I would have done but it looks to be working for them.
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I am talking about people building their own HTPCs which I think we become more common as getting content streamed and downloaded becomes ever easier. A lot of tech heads that the high end consoles aim for will have no problem with doing it, and more people will in the future. And if you care to look, there are already builds out there for $499 I think it was that perform better than both the PS4 and the Xbox One (according to the builders). Add to that the just released list of steambox builds that will be offered and the preasure on the dedicated console to do something that the PC doesn't gets even bigger.
Also, keep i mind that I am not predicting a mass exodus right now, but I think with the continued merger of the TV and the PC, consoles will need to be either less like PC or dead.
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The 2 main drivers in the console market are:
- Games: in the last generations, consoles have acquired many PC exclusives while PC hasn't acquired as many consoles' exclusives, not the other way arround. Moreover, games like Metal Gear Sold 5, Destiny or Final Fantasy XV are not planned to have a PC launch (and I'm not considering exclusives).
- Price: PCs cost much more. I'm not surprised that a guy who takes some time to make a 500 dollars PC configuration claims that it's better than a PS4 and XOne but, on the other hand, I'm sure that PC won't run smoothly 2016, 2017, 2018 games while PS4 and XOne will. PC demands a continuous investment to match consoles in the long-term or an insane initial investment (something like 4000 dollars).
Besides, consoles offer a simplicity PC doesn't. So, unless PC becomes a closed system (to avoid piracy and thus become attractive to all devs), much cheaper than what it is nowadays and demands games to maintain the lower specs along the time, I don't see it as a threat to consoles. In other words, unless PC becomes a console, I don't see it as a threat to consoles.
Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 70M WiiU: 25M
Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 50M WiiU: 18M
Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 90M XOne: 40M WiiU: 15M Switch: 20M
Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 110M XOne: 50M WiiU: 14M Switch: 65M