I'm not sure how many games the PSN or the XBLA have sold so far but I think it would be a neat comparison. Also remember that these are games that take next to no effort. You just put them on a server and let people download them, the games are already made so its almost entirely profit. 10 million games means at least 50 Million in profit.

I think it's too many. VC games are overpriced.

Let's see again. 40 % of 20M has internet connection, so the base falls down to 8M.

Out of the 8M, a lot are surely not interested in playing old games all over again. New games are much better, they don't want to play with a gamecube controller, the reason they bought Wii was the Wiimote, and there is no motion sensing in VC.

Let's say the above is 33 %, even though that does no have to be correct at all. Then we are down to 5.3M.

Then there are kids who don't get to PAY for internet games, as the parents don't understand the point of VC, or just people who don't understand the point of VC.

Let's say that is 10% which leaves us down to 4.3M potential owners.

Nintendo reported that the most bought games were the N64 then Snes, then NES and then some of the others. So let's say the average is 666 points pr download, even though that is too low.

So then, we get 3 downloads pr card. Now, if every one of these 4.3M owners had bought a card, we would have had 12.9M sales, or 12M if we take in count that the number of points is wrong. Now, I am sure a lot of people have not used all of their numbers, so I guess that brings the total sales down to 11, since perhaps 1/12 of the points aren't used. I'd guess 2/3 of the 4.3M has used money on the Browser. So that takes away 0.7M more, and brings it down to 10.3M. Of course, a lot of people have bought more than those 3 games, but they are a minority, I am sure.

So Nintendo has sold OVER 10M. I am sure I have forgotten some factors though.

I never said that the service wasn't profitable or worth setting up. I said that 10-million isn't an amount to really be proud of considering the amount of hardware they have sold. I mean there are 20-million Wii's and only about 10% are downloading content.

As for whether people are willing to download classics. Fact is  the hardcore gamers are going to want to buy at least one classic. I can gaurantee every hardcore Nintendo gamer is going to want at least a single classic game. That means only 10% of the user base is hardcore.

 The attach rate of VC games shows the success of Nintendo's online network and the installed user base of hardcore Nintendo fanboys. How many hardcore gamers are there how many online gamers are there how many buyers are willing to purchase online games.

 That is all important!
 

 Ah yes, 12 million is that magic number that brings VC sales from "poor" with 10 million...just 2 more million and it'd be fine.

10 million's fine...they're making profit and the service exists for those that want it.

Those that say the games are too expensive don't need to buy the games or are used to ROMs.

I'll admit, I've got ROMs, but I still buy some VC games because it's great to have them on my Wii, which is small, portable and (obviously) hooks up to a TV natively.

flaw: not everyone uses those cards.  most people with credit cards would simply buy the games using that rather than go to the store and pay more for the card and have to get more points than they may want...considering average age of wii owner is 29, there is likely not an insignificant amount of vc purchasers that have never bought one of those cards

what is hardcor?

If I had a faster internet connection I would buy a lot of VC games.

you make way too many leaps in your logic that aren't logically implied

a) i'm a hardcore Nintendo gamer that has yet to buy a single vc game...i just haven't gotten around to it due to lack of time, but i will eventually

b) not sure where u are getting the 10% number from, but there is no basis to say 10% (2 million) is the amount of vc purchasers

c) these are purchases SO FAR...many just haven't gotten around to it yet; others aren't on the internet; others don't have the controllers to do it yet; etc

How fast is your connection Supermario128?

Also, to anyone who thinks this is bad... you have to remember that some of these companies never made money off these games when they were first released. Re-releasing the games onto the VC allows them to recoup old losses. As long as the service brings in around 50-150 million a year, it's a success.