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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu early numbers in for 2/3/08

Avinash_Tyagi on 06 February 2008
DarkNight_DS said:
How can Wii Fit sell between 56-97k when it's not showing up on anyone's list? It looks like they didn't ship any units in last week... strange.

 Well no they did ship some, but I think they did undership last week, Iwata's interview seems to indicate they didn't think it would be such a huge success, because it was an expensive perhiperal, so maybe they are low



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Road on 06 February 2008

About the math

1,8M/30 = 60k x 7 = 420k per week. Is Nintendo stocking 80k Wii per Week?

I don't think so. I think Nintendo has overestimated Japan since holidays and was expecting that SSBB would meet their hardware expectations. They should just start shipping more to NA if they want to keep breaking records.



bigjon on 06 February 2008
ZenfoldorVGI said:
bigjon said:
Louie said:
bigjon said:
Oh... so these aren't the official numbers?

Yea there is no way the PS3 only had a 5k increase in HW, I expected the Wii to be well over 130k too... mainly due to NA's hw lowness.. if this is true where is that 1.8 million production? It certainly is not sitting on theshelves.

Well, last years Wii sales have stabilized at around 260k units a Week. Last weeks sales have been 312,000 units worldwide and this week will see sales of around 340,000 units.

That´s a big increase over last years sales. As I said before it is probably Nintendos limit at the moment.


I would think that there limit would be 450k... then I realized that my simple calculation was flawed I was doing 1.8/4.... but January had 4.4 weeks so its max should be about what? 400k or so...


Yeah, assuming no stockpiles, we should track at around 400k a week, guestimate.(actually, it's probably about 380)

 

That does put each week at 360 or 370k in the margin for error though. The dissapointment this week, was we assumed lower numbers from earlier in the year were being stockpiled for the Brawl release and apparently they weren't. I think the december shipments, for January, were being shipped out the door as they were made, in smaller shipments, and Nintend must just now be getting over the holiday console rush.


It is very possible that they made spread there brawl stockpile out over several weeks. Nintendo probably assumed most of the Brawl early adapters had a Wii and are shipping out a larger than normal allotment of Wiis for those who are going to buy a Wii just for brawl. It makes sense really, why would some stand in line for hours to get a game he might not even be able to get a Wii to play it on. I think we could see elevated (90-100k) hardware for Wii in Japan for 2-3 more weeks.

How's that theory sound ; )



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

fkusumot on 06 February 2008

Well, the DS had a good run.


I Blame Wii Fit!

ZenfoldorVGI on 06 February 2008
bigjon said:
ZenfoldorVGI said:
bigjon said:
Louie said:
 



 




It is very possible that they made spread there brawl stockpile out over several weeks. Nintendo probably assumed most of the Brawl early adapters had a Wii and are shipping out a larger than normal allotment of Wiis for those who are going to buy a Wii just for brawl. It makes sense really, why would some stand in line for hours to get a game he might not even be able to get a Wii to play it on. I think we could see elevated (90-100k) hardware for Wii in Japan for 2-3 more weeks.

How's that theory sound ; )

I think that's quite possible. A shipment of say 80,000 extra units alloted to Japan, with about 20k a week increase in the stability number, over the next 4 weeks, including last one, would give a decent boost to the Japanese Wii supply, while allowing steady supply to NA up until Brawls release. I was coming to that same theory when I read your post.

I wonder if they'll pull from others, when Brawl is release in the US.



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

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ZenfoldorVGI on 06 February 2008
fkusumot said:

Well, the DS had a good run.

Lol, I think their is a DragonQuest game coming soon.



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

Morgyn on 06 February 2008

3 x PS3 games in the top 10? Has that ever happened before?



DMeisterJ on 06 February 2008

Wow. I definetly have a problem with those numbers. As should and red-blooded Wii owner. So DMC 4 only pushed 3,000 more units than last week. and SSBB only did an extra 15k?

@ Avinash_Tyagi

How could you say that if PS3 numbers didn't rise it's in trouble, when according to Fam. The Wii only rose 10k for the SSBB release. I could have sworn that the whole "nintendo was stockpiling" excuse cropped up last week.



bigjon on 06 February 2008
fkusumot said:

Well, the DS had a good run.

you know that the reason that the DS had so few games in the top 10 becasue there were 8 or 9 major new releases and none of them were on the DS. The DS's newest release did make the top 10. It is not like DS games are flopping, it is just it is in a down time for new releases. It will be time to worry when the flops start coming.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Louie on 06 February 2008
 

Edit: Read my post beneath, I reworked everything.