By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu early numbers in for 2/3/08

Avinash_Tyagi on 06 February 2008
greenmedic88 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
greenmedic88 said:
Not software, hardware. Have enough hardware units available to be moved with a key soft release. Standard practice. Good games sell hardware/conventional wisdom.

I hope you're not trying to argue that there is reason for not moving as many units of Brawl as possible upon launch, or using sales that are below expectation to assume supply constraints.

The other explanation is that Brawl is not moving hundreds of thousands of consoles because software has not been moving as many hardware units as is typical for consoles. Hardware has been moving itself.

If they could move more hardware in tandem with a Brawl launch, they would. I fail to see the flaw in that.

I meant hardware, and like I said it doesn't matter, Nintendo could release 10K every week, and people would still wait to buy it, if they wanted to play Brawl. You don't have any proof that this is due to low demand or that Nintendo isn't stockpiling, all you have is speculation based on a premise that doesn't have any support, you assume that Nintendo will ship their hardware as you think they will.


 If not, then you are simply speculating that the vast majority of people in Japan who are buying Brawl don't already have a Wii, or that they didn't buy one in advance knowing full well that the game was coming out. 

 Unlike the PS3, I really don't believe anyone has been "holding out" on buying a Wii until certain games were released. The initial price was low enough (price is seen as a lower priority among Japanese gamers anyway) and there has been enough excitement over the platform even well before there were any killer apps other than Wii Sports.

 I'm sure that as more consoles are sold, Brawl will continue to sell at roughly a 1:3.3 attach rate which is very high. That is about the attach rate Melee saw with the GC. But I don't think millions of gamers are holding off on a purchase of a Wii in order to buy Brawl. Apparently, Nintendo doesn't either or they would have released more hardware inventory along with the launch. 


 Again you are speculating that they have the hardware to release, how do you know that they had any extra shipments to go to Japan, and you are speculating that if they do have the hardware that they would release it all in one shot, we've seen this before, with Wii fit, even after they saw it was a success, they slowly released it instead of flooding the market.

 

Also people don't seem to be waiting for the PS3, they just don't want it, judgeing by these numbers 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Around the Network
ameratsu on 06 February 2008

if those ps3 numbers are accurate that's pretty disappointing.



Demon's Souls Official Thread  | Currently playing: Left 4 Dead 2, LittleBigPlanet 2, Magicka

greenmedic88 on 06 February 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
greenmedic88 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
greenmedic88 said:
Not software, hardware. Have enough hardware units available to be moved with a key soft release. Standard practice. Good games sell hardware/conventional wisdom.

I hope you're not trying to argue that there is reason for not moving as many units of Brawl as possible upon launch, or using sales that are below expectation to assume supply constraints.

The other explanation is that Brawl is not moving hundreds of thousands of consoles because software has not been moving as many hardware units as is typical for consoles. Hardware has been moving itself.

If they could move more hardware in tandem with a Brawl launch, they would. I fail to see the flaw in that.

I meant hardware, and like I said it doesn't matter, Nintendo could release 10K every week, and people would still wait to buy it, if they wanted to play Brawl. You don't have any proof that this is due to low demand or that Nintendo isn't stockpiling, all you have is speculation based on a premise that doesn't have any support, you assume that Nintendo will ship their hardware as you think they will.


If not, then you are simply speculating that the vast majority of people in Japan who are buying Brawl don't already have a Wii, or that they didn't buy one in advance knowing full well that the game was coming out.

Unlike the PS3, I really don't believe anyone has been "holding out" on buying a Wii until certain games were released. The initial price was low enough (price is seen as a lower priority among Japanese gamers anyway) and there has been enough excitement over the platform even well before there were any killer apps other than Wii Sports.

I'm sure that as more consoles are sold, Brawl will continue to sell at roughly a 1:3.3 attach rate which is very high. That is about the attach rate Melee saw with the GC. But I don't think millions of gamers are holding off on a purchase of a Wii in order to buy Brawl. Apparently, Nintendo doesn't either or they would have released more hardware inventory along with the launch.


Again you are speculating that they have the hardware to release, how do you know that they had any extra shipments to go to Japan, and you are speculating that if they do have the hardware that they would release it all in one shot, we've seen this before, with Wii fit, even after they saw it was a success, they slowly released it instead of flooding the market.

 

Also people don't seem to be waiting for the PS3, they just don't want it, judgeing by these numbers


Unless the VGC numbers are blatantly undertracked, or Nintendo is not producing 1.8m per month, they are not selling at the current rate of production. 

Sales for the last month are well under 1.8m. Obviously Nintendo isn't going to dump that entire excess inventory on the Japanese market with the idea in mind that Brawl is going to move 100k consoles by itself, but no one finds it a little bit off that the biggest release for the Wii to date was only accompanied by about 100k hardware sales total?

Anyone? 



naznatips on 06 February 2008
greenmedic88 said:

Unless the VGC numbers are blatantly undertracked, or Nintendo is not producing 1.8m per month, they are not selling at the current rate of production.

Sales for the last month are well under 1.8m. Obviously Nintendo isn't going to dump that entire excess inventory on the Japanese market with the idea in mind that Brawl is going to move 100k consoles by itself, but no one finds it a little bit off that the biggest release for the Wii to date was only accompanied by about 100k hardware sales total?

Anyone?


All reports comming out of Japan are that Wiis and Brawl are currently entirely sold out.  So, whether you want to believe it or not, that's all that was shipped.  



greenmedic88 on 06 February 2008

Then Nintendo must be stockpiling the remainder of production. That is the only plausible explanation.

I have no problem believing Brawl sold out. If anything, they should have shipped more copies for the initial run (biggest release for the Wii to date). I was expecting close to 1.2m first week sales for Brawl if they had prepared for a simultaneous WW release.



Around the Network
Avinash_Tyagi on 06 February 2008

So Naz you'll believe but when I say it you argue lol



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

naznatips on 06 February 2008
greenmedic88 said:
Then Nintendo must be stockpiling the remainder of production. That is the only plausible explanation.

I have no problem believing Brawl sold out. If anything, they should have shipped more copies for the initial run (biggest release for the Wii to date). I was expecting close to 1.2m first week sales for Brawl if they had prepared for a simultaneous WW release.


Sales on Wiis have been in line with Nintendo's latest reported production amounts.  It's reasonable to assume that the Wii is by and large sold out worldwide, and they haven't had a chance to stockpile after the holidays.  



johnsobas on 06 February 2008

i love the "believe it only when i want to" attitude that half the people have on this site. Unbelievable.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

greenmedic88 on 06 February 2008
naznatips said:
greenmedic88 said:
Then Nintendo must be stockpiling the remainder of production. That is the only plausible explanation.

I have no problem believing Brawl sold out. If anything, they should have shipped more copies for the initial run (biggest release for the Wii to date). I was expecting close to 1.2m first week sales for Brawl if they had prepared for a simultaneous WW release.


Sales on Wiis have been in line with Nintendo's latest reported production amounts. It's reasonable to assume that the Wii is by and large sold out worldwide, and they haven't had a chance to stockpile after the holidays.


Latest production rate: 1.8m/month. True or false.

Current rate of sales for Jan 2008 as tracked by VGC: 1,287,869. True or false.

1.8m > 1,287,869. True.

 

Explain.



darconi on 06 February 2008
greenmedic88 said:
naznatips said:
greenmedic88 said:
Then Nintendo must be stockpiling the remainder of production. That is the only plausible explanation.

I have no problem believing Brawl sold out. If anything, they should have shipped more copies for the initial run (biggest release for the Wii to date). I was expecting close to 1.2m first week sales for Brawl if they had prepared for a simultaneous WW release.


Sales on Wiis have been in line with Nintendo's latest reported production amounts. It's reasonable to assume that the Wii is by and large sold out worldwide, and they haven't had a chance to stockpile after the holidays.


Latest production rate: 1.8m/month. True or false.

Current rate of sales for Jan 2008 as tracked by VGC: 1,287,869. True or false.

1.8m > 1,287,869. True.

 

Explain.


 For Christmas, Nintendo had special air freight shipping on the wii vs normal ship transit just like Sony did the first year for the PS3.  Maybe they ended up selling a good portion of their January stock in December because of the quicker shipping?