neither ps3 nor 360 will sell more than 60million consoles

wii will sell more than ps2

thus wii will end the generation with >50% market share

may be by summer end if GTA4-MGS4-GT5P in ps3 and GTA4-price drop in 360 doesn't boost sales. But in christmas it will be back under 50% again. Especially if ps3 sales begin to rise with big titles

Whenever Nintendo amps production, end of this year/early 09.

the chances are low but its possible
i think the ps2 will be the last true market domination console

Going by week-over-week sales thus far for 2008, as well as trends that have been forming over the last few months... February and March will probably look fairly close to the last week of January for overall sales ratios of each system, with continued tipping in favor of PS3 over 360, and Wii over both of them. Traditionally, March is the slowest month of consoles, so the Wii will likely pull ahead more than usual that month. Particularly with Brawl coming out (brilliant move, releasing it in the slowest month; a death sentence for any typical game, a system moving one for a much-hyped title). By the end of March, we'll be seeing a ratio something like Wii 45.6% PS3 20.3% 360 34.1%

From April onwards is a bit of a crapshoot, since we don't know yet how much Wii production increase will be after this fiscal year is over. Regardless of how much they go up by, however, they'll still be holding their own against MS and Sony's consoles. April through September tend to be average months at best for console sales, but the supply constraints on the Wii ensure that it continues to sell no matter what the season. Assuming we get 1.8 million systems in circulation per month those months (a reasonable worst-case guess), we should see a ratio by the start of October of Wii 49.8% PS3 20.4% 360 29.8%

So short of catastrophic readjustment that puts the market out of favor of the Wii, we can expect the Wii to hit 50% market share by some time in October at worst.

Market Dominance is all relative. What market, and what dominance?

@facher83, probably ww and over half of the sold consoles in market

WiiFit and to a certain extent Wii Sports allows Nintendo to reach a completely new demographic. Nintendo have had similar success with the DS and will do the same with the Wii. Within a couple of year it will sell for around $150 and Nintendo will sell bucket loads. I expect the Wii to reach 100m units sold by the end of 2010. 50% will be easy.

WOW

Hamister,

u have only 7 posts and u already have made an insanely good prediction for march 2009 !!!

GG MAN !!!!!

Wii could have 50% marketshare Ww before end of the year, depending how much Nintendo will up their production, introduce new colors if demand slows (unlikely, but still),introduce HDD, can they supply enough SSBB/MKWii games and consoles with their releases and onward from there.

Marketshare for Wii from Jan '07 to Feb '08 has changed like this (these are "about" values at the beginning of month, give or take couple days):

--> Jun 36,34% --> Jul 38,69 --> Aug 40,44% --> Sep 41,79% -->

Oct 42,05% --> Nov 42,18% --> Dec 42,80% --> Jan 43,62% -->

Feb 43,80%

Like people have said it is easier to get marketshare high at the beginning of new generation, than take it later.

Edit:typos