Going by week-over-week sales thus far for 2008, as well as trends that have been forming over the last few months... February and March will probably look fairly close to the last week of January for overall sales ratios of each system, with continued tipping in favor of PS3 over 360, and Wii over both of them. Traditionally, March is the slowest month of consoles, so the Wii will likely pull ahead more than usual that month. Particularly with Brawl coming out (brilliant move, releasing it in the slowest month; a death sentence for any typical game, a system moving one for a much-hyped title). By the end of March, we'll be seeing a ratio something like Wii 45.6% PS3 20.3% 360 34.1%
From April onwards is a bit of a crapshoot, since we don't know yet how much Wii production increase will be after this fiscal year is over. Regardless of how much they go up by, however, they'll still be holding their own against MS and Sony's consoles. April through September tend to be average months at best for console sales, but the supply constraints on the Wii ensure that it continues to sell no matter what the season. Assuming we get 1.8 million systems in circulation per month those months (a reasonable worst-case guess), we should see a ratio by the start of October of Wii 49.8% PS3 20.4% 360 29.8%
So short of catastrophic readjustment that puts the market out of favor of the Wii, we can expect the Wii to hit 50% market share by some time in October at worst.
Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.
