I agree, kber81.
No way Ridge Racer cost 15 million for development and marketing. The game's basically RR6 with some mild improvements. Anyway, the key to nex-gen development will be creating versatile game engines that can be used in multiple games. I'm not just talking about sequels either, even though that's the obvious way to reuse an engine. For example, Sony's London studios are reusing the Motorstorm engine to create a new Wipeout game. They'll probably also use it to create the inevitable Motorstorm sequel. I bet that 500,000 sales figure only applies if you create a brand new engine for every game. This sort of business model obviously won't work anymore.
This could hurt smaller devs who don't have the resources to create that initial engine in the first place. But that's where companies like Epic come in and save the day by selling the Unreal Engine. This is nothing new, companies have been doing this for ages. The most famous example I can think of in the console world is Rockstar using Criterion's Renderware platform to create the PS2 GTAs.
If anything, smaller devs have more opportunity now than they ever have before. With the popularity of XBLA, PSN, and VC, devs have a whole new cheap simple avenue to show off their skills. Not to mention that they can also develop for the DS, GBA, or PSP and prove themselves in those arenas before getting the funding from a big publisher to create a full game for one of the nex-gen systems. No one system is going to kill a developer because the gaming market is so diverse nowadays; there's such a wide range of platforms with such a wide range of associated development costs.
My Top 5:
Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger
My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3
and Wii 

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.