I started this as a response to another thread, but it kept growing and growing, so I decided it belonged as its own thread.

PART ONE - Analysis/predictions for this generation

To start, each generation, the market grows more and more. We'll be seeing the same this generation.

Looking at the past, the first generation saw very minimal sales - only a couple million units at best.

Second-gen saw much better - thanks to the Atari 2600 (which had 30m total sales). Total generation's sales probably finished close to 40m.

Third-gen, despite the crash of '83, did even better. The NES won outright, selling about 60m total, with the SEGA Master System pulling in 13m, and the Atari 7800 likely finished at about 1m, with the generation finishing at about 75m.

Fourth-gen saw the SNES, the Genesis, the Neo-Geo, and the Turbografx (as well as the Amiga and the CDi, but those were embarrassments). The SNES sold 49m, the Genesis 29m, the Turbografx 10m, and the NG was an uncertain amount behind that (likely somewhere around 5m due to its price). This left the generation at nearly 100m.

Fifth-gen brought 3D gaming - the PS1, N64, and the SEGA Saturn, mainly, as well as the 3DO, Atari Jaguar, and the Amiga CD-32. The PS1 pulled about 102m, the N64 about 35m, the Saturn just under 10m, the 3D0 about 2m, and the CD-32 and Jaguar were failures, bringing in less than 1m each (although for entirely different reasons). This generation finished at just under 150m.

Sixth-gen introduced the PS2, GCN, Xbox, and Dreamcast. The PS2 is still flourishing, with the GCN mucking along behind it. The Xbox and DC are dead. Sales are currently at about 125m for PS2, 22m for GCN, 24m for Xbox, and 10.5 for DC. This leaves the generation at about 185-190m when all is said and done, and the GCN and PS2 have officially kicked the bucket.

This generation, the market has grown much more than previously, thanks to the DS and the Wii. With easily five more years left in the generation's lifespan (and, if Nintendo does things with the Wii correctly, up to ten more years thanks to casuals and fitness freaks), we can expect the three systems to pull in a combined total of about 220m (minimum) to 400m (I'd say that's the absolute, utmost max). I'd estimate generation's end at 35m-50m for both the PS3 and 360 (PS3 can pull 100m if the right SKU and price-point is released, but I think the 360 is set at 50m max), and somewhere between 150 and 250m for Wii (it all depends on how Nintendo markets it, and whether they keep it alive past 2011 or not). Given the market that Nintendo has been marketing the Wii to, while still appealing greatly to oldschool gamers, and working to appeal to hardcore gamers a bit (more and more as time goes by), I'd say that the Wii could easily beat the PS2's lifespan.

This is realistics speaking, not fanboyism, as you can tell by the comparison of previous generations. We started with no more than 3m, which grew to 40m, then 75m, then 95m, then 150m, then 190m. Given how systems have sold, and why, we can count on a minimum of 220m this generation, and we KNOW we'll see these sort of numbers from each system.

My wide-range of generation's end (220m to 400m? That's a big difference) is due to a LOT of variables. The PS3 has lots of potential, what with being a blu-ray player as well. If Sony eventually gets its price down to the $200 point, they can assuredly revive the Playstation brand-name and cement their position as second this generation. We're looking at that price happening no earlier than Christmas '09, though, and it can only happen with a new <25gb model, but if it DOES happen, the PS3 can easily pull numbers nobody would have expected from it.

And the Wii is a tremendous mystery. Marketed and produced right, it can pull numbers so outrageous, Nintendo would be able to buy out most third-party devs by generation's end. Marketed and produced wrong, it will still most definitely pull magnificent sales-numbers (and most likely push beyond the PS2), but it wouldn't be a miracle child.

The 360 doesn't have anything gimmicky to bring people to it, though. It doesn't have power that nobody else can offer, it doesn't have disc replayability of a fledgling format that more and more people want, and it doesn't have motion control. Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying the 360 is bad. It's just not done anything new, and doesn't offer a unique experience of any sort. As a result, it is doomed to a lower potential sales range than the competition. It can still beat out the PS3 if done right, but the PS3 definitely has higher likelihood of getting up there.

It all depends on marketing strategies from here out, folks.

Me, I think the generation will end at a groundbreaking 300m total - about 185m for Wii, 70m for PS3, and the remainder 45m going to the 360. This will make each console a certain success, but each for different reasons. As a result, we will see each company again next generation.

Following this generation, each company will continue in the same paths they took this generation, to a degree. The Playstation-brand will become further entrenched in its "media-center" image, resulting in gaming being only a secondary function. The PS4 will again see a high price-point, but people will start viewing it in a better light, even though I think it'll go far more extreme ($1000 at launch?). The next Xbox will still be viewed as the "hardcore gamer's system", with mainly fighters, RPGs, racers, and FPS getting attention on it. Microsoft will continue trying to market it against the Playstation brand, but they won't be willing to take it to the levels that Sony will, so it will appeal far more to actual gamers than the Playstation 4 will. Meanwhile, Nintendo will bring the thunder, and their new system will bring everything the Wii had, but with enormous improvements behind the controls (I guarantee that they're doing intense R&D into their next system as we speak), and it will put out power to rival the competitors. I think the Wii2 will still be less powerful than the competition, but it'll be something like the 360 vs. PS3 - most people won't mind, or even know, the difference. It will market more to the core market, because the Wii will still be going strong, and still be selling to the more "casual" market. However, it will still market some at the casuals, and it will still be affordable. I think the Wii2 will again dominate next generation, but it's impossible to tell how.

I also think we'll see a new competitor arise for next generation. I expect it to be a new Phillips system (but honestly, we don't know who it'll be), and it will market heavily to casuals - direct competition for Nintendo. This is the biggest reason we won't know how well the Wii2 will do. As I expect this new system to market ONLY to casuals, I think it'll get the most casual of casuals - the ones that want the cheapest, most basic system for what they're looking for. As the new Xbox will market to more hardcore gamers, I expect it will sell MAINLY to them (wouldn't say ONLY, but hardcores will definitely make up 95% of its sales). However, the Wii2 will enjoy a middleground here - marketing to both. I expect it will sell somewhere around the combined total of all competitors, and the competitors will sell fairly evenly to their niche markets. As for Sony, they'll be slightly leaving the gaming industry behind, and their system will get mainly ports of titles from the other systems. It will sell pretty well, but not due to being a gaming machine. As a gaming machine, it WILL do well, but gaming will be a secondary focus.

 Numbers for next generation are entirely impossible to predict, and I'm not going to have anything to do with that yet. 

And there you have it, folks. Discuss.

(in before tl;dr)

I have no idea why Fitness freaks would love Wii that much.

sure, maybe Fitness wannabes who are too lazy to go to the gym, but hardcore fitness freaks???

Let's pray Wii doesn't last over 10 years, I think most people here would love to have Wii 2 instead after 6 years.

MUCH better graphics, HD graphics, better Wiimote, bigger harddrive, better onlineplay, NO friendcode...

I don't think I worded this well enough in the OP, so I'll restate it differently here.

I think we'll be looking at Nintendo going two different directions in 2011/2012. They will bring out the new Wii system that will market at all of us, and it will do something else new as well. It will be a great success.

However, they'll continue the Wii for a very long time, keeping it alive well into next generation.

I think the strategy will be a lot like the GBA/DS strategy - they introduced the DS as a "third pillar", not a replacement for the GBA (even though it became that). The next Wii will be the same - a "new pillar", a different direction for the company that will market at a different audience and do different things (but still be capable of everything that the Wii can do). So, those of us that want "MUCH better graphics, HD graphics, better Wiimote, bigger harddrive, better onlineplay, NO friendcode", well, we'll be able to have that... WHILE the Wii continues thriving.

However, partway/most of the way through the generation, they will finally cut support for the Wii and bring full focus on the Wii2, while dropping its price some (to appeal to the Wii's former audience).

2nd -> 3rd 88% growth (much more games were released compared to 1st gen)
3rd -> 4th 33% growth (normal growth)
4th -> 5th 50% growth (entering 3d era)
5th -> 6th 27% growth (normal growth)

Average growth 88+33+50+27=198 198/4= 50%
Extrapolation 190*1,5=285mln (until the last 360/PS3/Wii is sold)

If this generation didn't had a Wii-mote. The growth for the 7th generation would be minimal. The market would stagnate. I think the growth can be cut in half when looking at the last growth 27%. So this generation would only accomplish 14% growth if there wasn't a Wii-mote.

The problem is how big is motion control? Is it bigger than 3D? Almost every genre went from 2d to 3d. The Wii isn't delivering the new experience in many different genres. On the other side Wii games are easier to play, while 3D games were more complex.

6th -> 7th (min 217mln) and max (???mln)

What the future holds?
PS3: It's still struggling for Break Even. They will accomplish (2nd place). Sony wants it as long as possible on the market.
Wii: Well don't interrupt a winning formula. Nintendo won't take the first step into next generation.
360: It will likely and up in a 3rd place, although it's profitable Microsoft wants to benefit again with the first next gen console. They also have a vision: Our third Xbox will own them all. (Read it a few years ago, can't find article)

I think the numbers being thrown around in this thread are ridiculous. But I guess if some people still believe Super Mario Galaxy is going to do between 20-40 million units then I guess some people will believe and dream of anything. Good luck with the 185 million Wii prediction, that's almost 3 times the current installed base of the DS.

 The 400mln seems unlikely to me. Anyway these are numbers for the lifetime of a generation 10 years. By the of 2015.

I really agree with part one, and you do great explanations! Part two, is more random guessing without the reasoning and all that you had inthe first part.

I'll tell you what's going to happen, the 360 will come in third, maybe topping 40 million (face it people, it had a full year start on the competition and MS wasted it, it's doomed). I would be surprised if the Wii broke 120 million, I think this generation will be much shorter for the Wii then most expect. 2008-2010 you will be seeing mass adoption of HDTV and HD Media something the Wii cannot do, so I will be surprised if it passes 120. (Here comes 100 people saying HD adoption is slow, WRONG) (Here come's the fanboy name calling) The PS3 however, did extremely well in its first year if you consider it had to go up against the Wii's momentum, and the 360's year ahead, as well as a high price point. Sony is making great strides to lower the cost of the PS3, and I can gaurantee another price cut before the year is out. Anyways the PS3 has the most technology in it to ensure a longer lifetime. The Cell still has great potential, and the Blu-ray drive will give it the longest lifetime. The PS3 has the most features to offer, and therefore it will be the raining king at the end of the generation, and will most likely live an end life similar to the PS2 (it will keep selling well after the next-gen consoles release).

1st. PS3, longest lifetime, most to offer.
2nd. Wii, affordable, a little exciting, but it will be shortlived (Nintendo should have tried to break the HD-barrier)
3rd. 360 MS screwed up big with rushing it to the market, with no innovation (Microsofts style).

 Key word is current, also Wii is scaling up faster than DS WW, I mean think about it, Nitnendo has been selling faster than any system in history and they still can't meet demand WW, they still can't meet demand after 14 motnhs of outselling everything

I think 185 is too conservative, and 70 million for PS3 is way too high, also this gen is likely to experience much greater growth than anything that has happened

 You put waaay too much faith in tech, historically that has never made a difference, and HD adoptions is slow, less than 50% of HDTV owners even have HD service.

Technology won't decide PS3's lifespan games support will, look at PSP much more powerful than DS, and yet no one is buying the games, its been relegated to a media device

NES was a gen behind at launch, lasted 20 years, because of strong games support