In-depth analysis of industry, predictions

[Doktor85]

2nd -> 3rd 88% growth (much more games were released compared to 1st gen)
3rd -> 4th 33% growth (normal growth)
4th -> 5th 50% growth (entering 3d era)
5th -> 6th 27% growth (normal growth)

Average growth 88+33+50+27=198 198/4= 50%
Extrapolation 190*1,5=285mln (until the last 360/PS3/Wii is sold)

If this generation didn't had a Wii-mote. The growth for the 7th generation would be minimal. The market would stagnate. I think the growth can be cut in half when looking at the last growth 27%. So this generation would only accomplish 14% growth if there wasn't a Wii-mote.

The problem is how big is motion control? Is it bigger than 3D? Almost every genre went from 2d to 3d. The Wii isn't delivering the new experience in many different genres. On the other side Wii games are easier to play, while 3D games were more complex.

6th -> 7th (min 217mln) and max (???mln)

What the future holds?
PS3: It's still struggling for Break Even. They will accomplish (2nd place). Sony wants it as long as possible on the market.
Wii: Well don't interrupt a winning formula. Nintendo won't take the first step into next generation.
360: It will likely and up in a 3rd place, although it's profitable Microsoft wants to benefit again with the first next gen console. They also have a vision: Our third Xbox will own them all. (Read it a few years ago, can't find article)