Right now it's looking like this:

Wii U: 40 million
Xbone: 60 million
PS4: 110 million

Sureley it was clear we were talking about North America?

Its going back to normal, after the Wii expanded it. 

Expect more than the PS2 gen but less than the Wii gen.

A lot of the market has shifted to mobile. 

No doubt it will shrink due to competition from gaming on mobile, tablets and Apple-TV.

To be on topic...

I think the ball is currently with Sony. They need to not screw up, but, this is Sony.

I dont think its gonna be easy for them. Wii U will bounce back and Xbox One WILL sell well in US/UK.

I know you did, I remember that. You and Patcher were the first ones to say how 3DS and Vita would be hurt by smartphones.

Today, in hindsight, it's pretty obvious. The highend smartphones are such powerful and useful machines for people, and when even smaller school kids own them it's obvious many won't need to invest in a dedicated handheld.

Wii U will bounce back but like you said, to more normal last gen sales. It won't grab many casuals because the casuals, like you said, have since long gone to mobile.

Wii U will totally remain a niche console for Nintendo games and will offer competition to PS4 and Xbone only on the entry level gamer, the young gamers who get their first console from their parents. In the traditional hardcore market the third party already decided the victory for PS4 and Xbone.

I do think it will be easy for Sony.

Getting a bad rep should not be underestimated. We're right now witnessing a bad rep unlike almost anything in electronics in the past decade. What I believe will be the effect is that PS4 will take a comforable and stable sales lead early in the generation and thus quickly become the standard console, even in USA.

The TV strategy for any console maker will fall flat on its belly. It will not capture any new customers whatsoever. Not until Apple enters that market with a TV-gaming device, then it will explode. Watching TV on your console is a total non-issue until Apple sells this idea like only they can. Mark my words.

I would say that at this point, its very unlikely they wont win next-gen.

Were agreed then, thats the point i was making, things change, US is not on LOCK for anyone. 

You are much more of an optimist then i am.   I'm not sure i'd count the Wii U bouncing back as likely.  I mean, some bounce maybe but i question whether it would be enough to be a challenge to anything.