This is a response thread, here are my lifetime predictions:
(I hope I've done a better job, and further down I'll explain my numbers)
3DS: 90-130m (110m)
PSV: 15-40m (27.5m)
Wii U: 70-110m (90m)
PS4: 80-120m (100m)
X1: 80-120m (427.5m)
Industy Total: 335-520m
Well, there's been a prediction thread by Captain Tom. To be fair I think his current gen predictions are reasonable, but his next gen ones aren't:
Captain Tom's prediction for next gen:
3DS: 50-70m
PSV: 20-30m
Wii U: 20-40m
PS4: 150m
X1: 75m
Industy Total: 315-365m (340m)
The issues I have are with his 3DS, Wii U and PS4 predictions.
3DS
The 3DS is already selling very well around the world, competing well with the DS (see goalpostcharz).
With an influx of games and massive holiday sales coming up for the 3DS and WiiU (Christmas is always big business for Nintendo), the numbers just don't hold up. The 1st 3DS holiday jump was of about 9m units worldwide, the second holiday jump was of about 5m units worldwide. The inter-holiday ramp is of about 8m units a year. The 3DS trend has been quite constant and predictable actually. Assuming a 7 year life of proper sales (the DS sold healthy from 2004 to 2011), I would bet the 3DS has another 4+5 (9m) to sell for this year, and another 4 cycles of 8+5 (13m) for a total of an extra 61m units left to sell, for lifetime sales revolving around the 90m mark. These are conservative numbers. Assuming the 3DS spikes due to a good library, much like the DS and the PS2's, being the undisputed market leader, it could easily reach 130m (removing 20m due to an early remodel for the 3DS).
The 3DS just started its 3rd year on the market and has already sold 30m units. I'm not sure how anyone could rationalize min lifetime sales of 50m, it beats me. 70m
PS4
The Playstation 4 is competing pretty much identically to the way the PS3 was competing last gen. A low-end disruptor (WiiU) is eating out sales from the younger-aged crowd that can enjoy games with animated violence but not necessarily gore, with games like Monster Hunter, or more mainstream games like Just Dance. At the same time it competes with the X1 in the same market as gen 6, nothing is changing there unless MS screws up big time, which it won't. If DRM is an issue they will address it.
Having said that, the PS4 will likely be more reasonably priced and better supported early on than the PS3, offering the PS4 a good early momentum. Having said that, it will be competing with the X1 just as early as before, and will lose edge with less exclusive material for big blockbusters like COD.
Expect the PS4 vs X1 trends to be somewhat similar to what we've been seeing these past two years, with Sony having a nice edge over the X1, but nothing that could hint at market domination (which would imply lifetime sales of 150m as with PS2, DS).
There is always a possibility of Nintendo stepping up their game (which is a no-brainer but let's make it a hypothetical), solidifying their ground with gamers that may like core games but don't necessarily want the HD-twin type blockbuster content, but more vg-type content like rpgs (PS2-type content).
With that competition from Nintendo, I give a low-end of 80m to the PS4, which is close to its actual lifetime PS3 sales at the moment. On the high end I give 120m because it could well outdo the PS3 but moderately due to evident competition. I would not reserve higher sales than that in the home console market in the competitive landscape of today, anything much higher than that is wishful thinking.
X1
Mostly explained above, the X1 will present a very similar level of competition to the PS4 as the 360 did to the PS3. With exclusive content to some blockbuster games, the X1 will most likely find an edge in the US and lose a bit of an edge in Europe. However they will not let something like DRM blow up their strategy, they are not morons. Expecting them to is wishful thinking.
WiiU
Again partially explained above, the WiiU takes a lot of cues from its handheld cousins. Some argue that Nintendo is not familiar with HD development, but few realize that the Wii was actually natively HD... it was only gimped in output. Dolphin will tell you that. So, the truth of the matter is that Nintendo does have experience with HD graphics, but they do have some learning in the high-details some of the more modern systems offer (the U being somewhat more powerful than the PS360). Still, it's not their first generational jump......... (seems like the obvious needs to be stated).
The U will most likely pick up in sales by year end after an obvious price cut (they don't let their consoles fail anymore, even if they're tighter on cash this time around). Once the sales of their upcoming 3rd party games like MK and Super Mario 3D trickle in, they will get exclusives from Capcom, just like it was for the 3DS. The twins will get their games, and the U will get its games. As such, I see the U bouncing back up very strong and mimicking the sales trends of the 3DS within a year.
For that reason, I give the U a similar prediction to the 3DS, with a bit of a cut (10m) due to a late recovery and a bit of a cut due to the more expensive nature of home consoles (10m). I was also tempted to cap it at 100m as I have difficulty seeing it surpass the Wii's actual lifetime sales, but the Wii's lifetime sales were cut short so I could be wrong with that. I'll leave it at 110m on the max cap.
