1. This matters much less than you might think. For example, MK8 sold 1.33 million to MK7's 2.79 (VGChartz) or 47.7% despite the Wii U only having 14.7% of the install base of the 3DS. This trend is also seen in Smash Bros, Mario 3D Land/World, and many others. Thus, the low sales of the Wii U didn't actually hold Splatoon back that much.

2. I disagree, the 3DS had a very weak launch lineup, especially for Japan, and that continued for much of 2011. The Switch, however, has gotten much better first year games, so it matching 3DS this year, which it still probably won't (3DS sold 4.3 million in Japan in 2011), doesn't mean it'll will reach the same figures life-time. Also, Japan's console makret has been declining for many years, and so far it's too early to say that that shall drastically change soon. I'd say Switch will sell 15-20 million in Japan.

3. I know that this game is launching early in the Switch's life so it will certainly have good legs, especially with it being Nintendo, but saying they'll be good enough to shift at least 4 million after the first week is expecting too much. Sequels to popular games always have much shorter legs in Japan; just look at Yokai Watch 2, Pokemon Gold/Silver, Monster Hunter Freedom 2, et cetera...

4. Don't expect that just beacuse COMG is suggesting it. So far every Switch game has had a low ratio (Zelda 1:699, 1-2 Switch 1:585, DQH 1:853, Puyo Puyo 1:803, the exception though is Bomberman at 1:1144 which is still pretty average). In addition to this, currently COMG is the only place where you can pre-order Spla2n in Japan, thus the figure may be artificially inflated as those who want the game a lot are forced to go there.

Splatoon 2 is obviously gonna do well, but don't get too carried away. 5 million is pessimistic?!! Come on...

If comg was the only place in Japan you could pre order DQ11 it's numbers would obviously be massively higher. Splatoon vs DQ11 on comg isn't a fair comparison.

Also splatoon 2 is gen 9 not gen 8 so of course it will be the highest selling title of its gen for now.

83 days left
MHXX - 324(+8)
SPLA2N- 258(+22)

How do we know anything about Splatoon's ratio? Over 90% of the first game's sales came after its launch. This is an untested franchise - we know almost nothing about what to expect from it! Other than enormous lifetime sales of course.

Just looking at the raw numbers -- MH3G, MK7, and SM3DL first week sales -- 1 million seems like a tall order. Consider me skeptical.

So your saying people are coming in just to pre order in a small group of stores because other retailera havent open up yet? Its basically 10-12 stores, these are just the normal comg consumers. Nobody outside of that particular location is coming in just to pre order a game.

That said there are what? 600-700 people that have switches. Splat2 has almost 300 pre orders from this number. DQ has barely more than that combined with probably over 10k people with ps4/3ds. (Install base is currently 28x that of switch nationwide) and its freaking DQ. One of the 5 biggest ips in japan. 

Discrediting splatoon will be a huge mistake noone should make (look at ffxv vs splat1 for reference)

Lastly gen 8/9 whatever splat2 is going to outsell everything and compete with the likes of pokemon/dq/mh/ac. And it has a good chance of winning imo. 

Moderated (No Reply Rule) ~ CGI

How do these points relate to sales? Splatoon 2 is killing it... People laughed and said no way when I told them Splatoon would have the second best selling game on Switch.

You choose now to put this into effect? :p

The last 2 days have been insane for Splatoon 2.

It's incredible how Splatoon 2, a game in a new IP that appeared in a flop console, has almost as many points as a main game in one of the biggest franchises in Japan since the 80's (Dragon Quest), and at this pace it seems that there's even a chance  that Splatoon 2 will surpass both versions of DQXI combined.

I guess Japan really likes tentacles  

In general we can say 1 point = 1k of sales

But there are cases that it goes under or over that. 

Eh, honest talk, i don't really care how those games performed. This is what i looking at:

Switch first month sales in USA - 906,000
Zelda first month sales in USA on Switch - 925,000 <---- even with the Wii U version

Splatoon will release when Switch will be in the 1.7-2 million range. That's more than enought for Splatoon 2 to sells over one million. Let's be serius, A LOT of Switch sales in japan so far comes from Splatoon 2 EVEN if the game is not even released, this is not the west, here Zelda barely has more than half of attach rate. Switch jumped from 50,000 to 78,000 the week of the Splatoon firetest, yes, this was also thanks the new shipments, but still.

honestly i can't believe people are still so much dubius about the Splatoon potential. Imo, 50% attach rate first week is not hard to see.

I can agree with the fourth point, indeed i expect a lower ratio for Splatoon 2 compared to Splatoon 1.

For the other points:

The problem here is that you haven't to only watch the Wii U sales, you have to analyze the intere situation.

We are talking about a game, released in the last truly year of the system (Wii U was pretty much death after January 2016...) which he has to fight against Nintendo who decided to kill the console as soon as possible. Wii U got shipments problem in Japan since January 2016, and Nintendo didn't care to fix this situation, if Nintendo was going to keep the Wii U alive for at least another year, Splatoon would have sold even more than what he did.

Now, the game will release at the start of the life of a new system, which is going to be a huge success (according to your predictions, it will outsell the Wii U by at least x4.5).

You know why the comparation with Yokai Watch 2 doesn't looks right? Because: Yokai Watch 2 was released when 3DS was at 16 million units sold, was on the same platform of the first Yokay Watch, AND it also got a thid version, who eated the sales of the firts 2 version. Yet, Yokai Watch 2 sold from 1.3m first week to 3.2m lifetime.

Splatoon has not another version which will hurt his legs, instead it will get DLC which will help even more the game, will have Tournaments too which are gonna help it's legs, and unlike Yokai Watch 2, it is gonna sells for years, just like Animal Crossing or Mario Kart, this time there is litterally nothing which is gonna stop it.

Really can't understand how this is hard to believe, have i said 5 million is pecsimist? Whatever, pecsimist or not, i think is easy gonna happen.