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Forums - Sales Discussion - COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

tbone51 on 24 June 2013
outlawauron said:
tbone51 said:
outlawauron said:
Michael-5 said:

So wait, if Monster Hunter is already over 1,000 pre-orders, and typically a nintendo game sells 500-800x during week 1, then does that mean true Japanese pre-orders are in the range of 500-800k already? It's it's adding 70 units a day, and has 83 more days to go, that's another 4,900 more pre-orders, and it;s likely that pre-orders will spike right before the game releases.

So with at least 6,000 pre-orders, maybe 8,000 on COMG, and 500-800x games sold per COMG pre-order, that's a minimum of 3 million games sold week 1, max 6 million....

wow, this could easily become the biggest game in the series. Great move switching to Nintendo, clearly this was keeping the PSP alive and is killing the Vita.

There's something wrong with your math here. Somewhere, because there's no way in hell it'll do 3 million week 1 and it's highly unlikely it'll pass the last PSP release.

i agree with it not doing that high (imo it do between 1.10mil-1.40mil FW with digital sales) but how is it highly unlikely to surpass the PSP installments?

Because the 3DS isn't as big as the PSP. While it's catching up, you should see the progression of the PSP releases and their sales. I don't think that anyone can just assume it'll automatically top 5 million on a 11-12 million userbase. Especially now that the series has cooled down a bit.



True, True, but i see Monster Hunter like pokemon games! MH4 is a new generation like Pokemon X/Y is or Diamond/Pearl! The sales of those games are much better due to new mechanics/region/story/monsters/etc! Now MH3U on 3DS is closing in on 2.2mil and we all kno MH4 will do much better! Lets not forget that MH3U came out in japan when userbase was under 5mil (around there). Now its closing in on 11mil with a game thats a system seller and a month later another game that is a KILLER system seller! The least we should all expect from this title is 3mil putting it 3rd place of the series, but we dont kno how well MH will sell on 3ds so in reality its a huge "?" ! Time will tell though right lol, last thing! Nintendo system games are known to have legs, so with that you'll never kno



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Michael-5 on 24 June 2013
Farsala said:
Michael-5 said:

So it looks like the game adds double the pre-orders on weekends. If it adds a more realistic 50 units a week average, that's 4,000 more COMG pre-orders, plus 1,100 it already has and that's 5,100. A max for growth would be more like 6,500 now.


i think it will act more like a PSP game then a 3DS game. Or more like a MH game. MH3P did around 5000pts then opened to 2m. So if MH4 ends up at around 4k- 6k then I think it will be in the 2m range. 2k-4k would be more like 1.5m.

That's a better method of extrapolation, a direct comparision. WOW COMG really favors Monster Hunter then, this means that week 1 sales for MH4 are only guarenteed to top MH3U which opened to 600k.

Still, it's too early to estimate where Monster Hunter will end on COMG. 5,000 is where it will end with current pre-orders, if pre-orders rise sharply, it could end up much hugher then 6,500...

FaintZ said:


The first week record in Japan is 2,6 milion, Pokemon B/W.

And I don't think MH4 will sell more than the PSP games, so everything over 2 milion is out of reach.

In my opinion of course.

Yea, I see, it's hard to make any estimates off COMG...

MH3P sold 1.9 million units, and it was a remake/port. I think MH4 is guarenteed to break 2 million, probably 3 too.

Kresnik said:
Michael-5 said:

 


Please don't take this the wrong way, but I feel like you're going back into thinking-too-hard-with-numbers-about-the-situation like you did with Gran Turismo 5 to come to some of your conclusions :P

MonHun 4 is going to be a monster game when it releases, no doubt.  Perhaps it'll even beat MHP3's points on here and FW sales if it's very lucky.  However, 3m+ FW seems impossible to be.  I'm struggling to believe it'll get to 2m+ because Portable 3rd didn't and that was on a larger installbase and was basically the biggest name on the console at the time by a country mile.

Plus, digital sales will be more of a factor this time around if previous 3DS releases are anything to go by.

Obviously, there's plenty more excitement to come from MH4 in the charts here but I'd suggest that you might want to keep your expectations in line a tad more :P

Don't use Install base as an arguement for MH4's potential sales, it doesn't work (as you can see from my GT5 estimates). 3DS has a lot of units on shelves already, 12 million or so. PSP is now only just reaching 20 million. Whatever number it was at when MH3F released on PSP, I doubt it will make a difference. MH4 will push systems.

tbone51 said:

True, True, but i see Monster Hunter like pokemon games! MH4 is a new generation like Pokemon X/Y is or Diamond/Pearl! The sales of those games are much better due to new mechanics/region/story/monsters/etc! Now MH3U on 3DS is closing in on 2.2mil and we all kno MH4 will do much better! Lets not forget that MH3U came out in japan when userbase was under 5mil (around there). Now its closing in on 11mil with a game thats a system seller and a month later another game that is a KILLER system seller! The least we should all expect from this title is 3mil putting it 3rd place of the series, but we dont kno how well MH will sell on 3ds so in reality its a huge "?" ! Time will tell though right lol, last thing! Nintendo system games are known to have legs, so with that you'll never kno

I 100% agree, for this game to be the 3rd best selling Monster Hunter, it only has to beat Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate at 1.9 million Japan, 2.15 million WW, and Monster Hunter Freedom 2 at 1.75 million Japan 2.52 million WW.

If MH3U, a port/remake can be the 3rd best selling Monster Hunter in Japan, then this game is sure to get at least 3 million lifetime in Japan. However MHF1 & 3 both sold about 5 million WW, that's going to be tough for the 3DS game to beat, but I think it's very possible. Like you said Nintendo games have legs, and at this point it's pretty guarenteed that 3DS will have more units on shelves then PSP by the end of 2014.

Still, it's a big "?", I don't see MH4 selling well outside of Japan anymore, so for this game to be the leading game in the series it has to top 4.86 million for Japan and beat Monster Hunter Freedom 3, and get another 500k outside of Japan, beating MHFU at 5.36 million.

The very least, Japan's 3DS support will explode this fall with Monster Hunter AND Pokemon releasing a month apart.



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outlawauron on 24 June 2013
Michael-5 said:
Farsala said:
Michael-5 said:

So it looks like the game adds double the pre-orders on weekends. If it adds a more realistic 50 units a week average, that's 4,000 more COMG pre-orders, plus 1,100 it already has and that's 5,100. A max for growth would be more like 6,500 now.


i think it will act more like a PSP game then a 3DS game. Or more like a MH game. MH3P did around 5000pts then opened to 2m. So if MH4 ends up at around 4k- 6k then I think it will be in the 2m range. 2k-4k would be more like 1.5m.

That's a better method of extrapolation, a direct comparision. WOW COMG really favors Monster Hunter then, this means that week 1 sales for MH4 are only guarenteed to top MH3U which opened to 600k.

Still, it's too early to estimate where Monster Hunter will end on COMG. 5,000 is where it will end with current pre-orders, if pre-orders rise sharply, it could end up much hugher then 6,500...

FaintZ said:


The first week record in Japan is 2,6 milion, Pokemon B/W.

And I don't think MH4 will sell more than the PSP games, so everything over 2 milion is out of reach.

In my opinion of course.

Yea, I see, it's hard to make any estimates off COMG...

MH3P sold 1.9 million units, and it was a remake/port. I think MH4 is guarenteed to break 2 million, probably 3 too.

Kresnik said:
Michael-5 said:

 


Please don't take this the wrong way, but I feel like you're going back into thinking-too-hard-with-numbers-about-the-situation like you did with Gran Turismo 5 to come to some of your conclusions :P

MonHun 4 is going to be a monster game when it releases, no doubt.  Perhaps it'll even beat MHP3's points on here and FW sales if it's very lucky.  However, 3m+ FW seems impossible to be.  I'm struggling to believe it'll get to 2m+ because Portable 3rd didn't and that was on a larger installbase and was basically the biggest name on the console at the time by a country mile.

Plus, digital sales will be more of a factor this time around if previous 3DS releases are anything to go by.

Obviously, there's plenty more excitement to come from MH4 in the charts here but I'd suggest that you might want to keep your expectations in line a tad more :P

Don't use Install base as an arguement for MH4's potential sales, it doesn't work (as you can see from my GT5 estimates). 3DS has a lot of units on shelves already, 12 million or so. PSP is now only just reaching 20 million. Whatever number it was at when MH3F released on PSP, I doubt it will make a difference. MH4 will push systems.

tbone51 said:

True, True, but i see Monster Hunter like pokemon games! MH4 is a new generation like Pokemon X/Y is or Diamond/Pearl! The sales of those games are much better due to new mechanics/region/story/monsters/etc! Now MH3U on 3DS is closing in on 2.2mil and we all kno MH4 will do much better! Lets not forget that MH3U came out in japan when userbase was under 5mil (around there). Now its closing in on 11mil with a game thats a system seller and a month later another game that is a KILLER system seller! The least we should all expect from this title is 3mil putting it 3rd place of the series, but we dont kno how well MH will sell on 3ds so in reality its a huge "?" ! Time will tell though right lol, last thing! Nintendo system games are known to have legs, so with that you'll never kno

I 100% agree, for this game to be the 3rd best selling Monster Hunter, it only has to beat Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate at 1.9 million Japan, 2.15 million WW, and Monster Hunter Freedom 2 at 1.75 million Japan 2.52 million WW.

If MH3U, a port/remake can be the 3rd best selling Monster Hunter in Japan, then this game is sure to get at least 3 million lifetime in Japan. However MHF1 & 3 both sold about 5 million WW, that's going to be tough for the 3DS game to beat, but I think it's very possible. Like you said Nintendo games have legs, and at this point it's pretty guarenteed that 3DS will have more units on shelves then PSP by the end of 2014.

Still, it's a big "?", I don't see MH4 selling well outside of Japan anymore, so for this game to be the leading game in the series it has to top 4.86 million for Japan and beat Monster Hunter Freedom 3, and get another 500k outside of Japan, beating MHFU at 5.36 million.

The very least, Japan's 3DS support will explode this fall with Monster Hunter AND Pokemon releasing a month apart.

You realize that every PSP MH outside of the newest were all port/expansions/re-releases with extra content. That's what makes their sales even more amazing, imo.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

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outlawauron on 24 June 2013
tbone51 said:
outlawauron said:
tbone51 said:
outlawauron said:
Michael-5 said:

So wait, if Monster Hunter is already over 1,000 pre-orders, and typically a nintendo game sells 500-800x during week 1, then does that mean true Japanese pre-orders are in the range of 500-800k already? It's it's adding 70 units a day, and has 83 more days to go, that's another 4,900 more pre-orders, and it;s likely that pre-orders will spike right before the game releases.

So with at least 6,000 pre-orders, maybe 8,000 on COMG, and 500-800x games sold per COMG pre-order, that's a minimum of 3 million games sold week 1, max 6 million....

wow, this could easily become the biggest game in the series. Great move switching to Nintendo, clearly this was keeping the PSP alive and is killing the Vita.

There's something wrong with your math here. Somewhere, because there's no way in hell it'll do 3 million week 1 and it's highly unlikely it'll pass the last PSP release.

i agree with it not doing that high (imo it do between 1.10mil-1.40mil FW with digital sales) but how is it highly unlikely to surpass the PSP installments?

Because the 3DS isn't as big as the PSP. While it's catching up, you should see the progression of the PSP releases and their sales. I don't think that anyone can just assume it'll automatically top 5 million on a 11-12 million userbase. Especially now that the series has cooled down a bit.

True, True, but i see Monster Hunter like pokemon games! MH4 is a new generation like Pokemon X/Y is or Diamond/Pearl! The sales of those games are much better due to new mechanics/region/story/monsters/etc! Now MH3U on 3DS is closing in on 2.2mil and we all kno MH4 will do much better! Lets not forget that MH3U came out in japan when userbase was under 5mil (around there). Now its closing in on 11mil with a game thats a system seller and a month later another game that is a KILLER system seller! The least we should all expect from this title is 3mil putting it 3rd place of the series, but we dont kno how well MH will sell on 3ds so in reality its a huge "?" ! Time will tell though right lol, last thing! Nintendo system games are known to have legs, so with that you'll never kno

I think that's very reasonable. I don't see it getting past 4 million without a cheaper re-release (which MH3U has and it has greatly boosted its legs).



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

Moren on 24 June 2013
Kresnik said:

Please don't take this the wrong way, but I feel like you're going back into thinking-too-hard-with-numbers-about-the-situation like you did with Gran Turismo 5 to come to some of your conclusions :P

MonHun 4 is going to be a monster game when it releases, no doubt.  Perhaps it'll even beat MHP3's points on here and FW sales if it's very lucky.  However, 3m+ FW seems impossible to be.  I'm struggling to believe it'll get to 2m+ because Portable 3rd didn't and that was on a larger installbase and was basically the biggest name on the console at the time by a country mile.

Plus, digital sales will be more of a factor this time around if previous 3DS releases are anything to go by.

Obviously, there's plenty more excitement to come from MH4 in the charts here but I'd suggest that you might want to keep your expectations in line a tad more :P

Portable 3rd was heavily supply constrained at release though.

Although I agree 3M+ FW is way too high, some of the lower end expectations here are too funny.



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SnakeDrake on 24 June 2013

That quote tree.



 

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Michael-5 on 24 June 2013
outlawauron said:
Michael-5 said:
tbone51 said:

True, True, but i see Monster Hunter like pokemon games! MH4 is a new generation like Pokemon X/Y is or Diamond/Pearl! The sales of those games are much better due to new mechanics/region/story/monsters/etc! Now MH3U on 3DS is closing in on 2.2mil and we all kno MH4 will do much better! Lets not forget that MH3U came out in japan when userbase was under 5mil (around there). Now its closing in on 11mil with a game thats a system seller and a month later another game that is a KILLER system seller! The least we should all expect from this title is 3mil putting it 3rd place of the series, but we dont kno how well MH will sell on 3ds so in reality its a huge "?" ! Time will tell though right lol, last thing! Nintendo system games are known to have legs, so with that you'll never kno

I 100% agree, for this game to be the 3rd best selling Monster Hunter, it only has to beat Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate at 1.9 million Japan, 2.15 million WW, and Monster Hunter Freedom 2 at 1.75 million Japan 2.52 million WW.

If MH3U, a port/remake can be the 3rd best selling Monster Hunter in Japan, then this game is sure to get at least 3 million lifetime in Japan. However MHF1 & 3 both sold about 5 million WW, that's going to be tough for the 3DS game to beat, but I think it's very possible. Like you said Nintendo games have legs, and at this point it's pretty guarenteed that 3DS will have more units on shelves then PSP by the end of 2014.

Still, it's a big "?", I don't see MH4 selling well outside of Japan anymore, so for this game to be the leading game in the series it has to top 4.86 million for Japan and beat Monster Hunter Freedom 3, and get another 500k outside of Japan, beating MHFU at 5.36 million.

The very least, Japan's 3DS support will explode this fall with Monster Hunter AND Pokemon releasing a month apart.

You realize that every PSP MH outside of the newest were all port/expansions/re-releases with extra content. That's what makes their sales even more amazing, imo.

I did no know that....wow.

So Monster Hunter 4, could do a lot better then any of us suspect? I mean it's the first "new" generation game since Tri for Wii/ 3 for PSP. No wonder Monster Hunter 3 sold the best for PSP in Japan.

Anyway come September 12th, and October 12th, 3DS should get a huge boost in sales.

---

I was thinking, why don't we see too many PS1/PS2 JRPG's on the 3DS? I mean we saw a lot of PS1 remakes on PSP, why not any more on 3DS? I mean, I could see Final Fantasy VII-IX selling very well on the 3DS, Saga Frontier, Arc the Lad, XenoGears, Chrono Cross, Brave Fencer Musashi, Kingdom Hearts I & 2, Star Ocean 3, Romancing Saga, etc. All these games sold as good or better then the Monster Hunter games on PS2 (only MH2 did modestly well).

I mean 3DS got Tales of the Abyss which sold 85% as well WW on the 3DS as it did on the PS2 (wait VGC doesn't have data for the PS2 game outside of Japan). Star Ocean for PSP did better then Star Ocean for SNES, FF3 did better on DS then it did on NES, and all those FF/DQ remakes sold fairly well too!

Plus the new games in the old franchises, like Dragon Quest IX sold the best on DS.

Then again, some remakes like Front Mission bombed, so you never know. Anyway. just a rant, I'd like to see more retro style RPG's on the 3DS before everyone switches to shovelware on iPads....



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Vote for the March Most Wanted / February Results

outlawauron on 24 June 2013
Michael-5 said:
outlawauron said:
Michael-5 said:
tbone51 said:

True, True, but i see Monster Hunter like pokemon games! MH4 is a new generation like Pokemon X/Y is or Diamond/Pearl! The sales of those games are much better due to new mechanics/region/story/monsters/etc! Now MH3U on 3DS is closing in on 2.2mil and we all kno MH4 will do much better! Lets not forget that MH3U came out in japan when userbase was under 5mil (around there). Now its closing in on 11mil with a game thats a system seller and a month later another game that is a KILLER system seller! The least we should all expect from this title is 3mil putting it 3rd place of the series, but we dont kno how well MH will sell on 3ds so in reality its a huge "?" ! Time will tell though right lol, last thing! Nintendo system games are known to have legs, so with that you'll never kno

I 100% agree, for this game to be the 3rd best selling Monster Hunter, it only has to beat Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate at 1.9 million Japan, 2.15 million WW, and Monster Hunter Freedom 2 at 1.75 million Japan 2.52 million WW.

If MH3U, a port/remake can be the 3rd best selling Monster Hunter in Japan, then this game is sure to get at least 3 million lifetime in Japan. However MHF1 & 3 both sold about 5 million WW, that's going to be tough for the 3DS game to beat, but I think it's very possible. Like you said Nintendo games have legs, and at this point it's pretty guarenteed that 3DS will have more units on shelves then PSP by the end of 2014.

Still, it's a big "?", I don't see MH4 selling well outside of Japan anymore, so for this game to be the leading game in the series it has to top 4.86 million for Japan and beat Monster Hunter Freedom 3, and get another 500k outside of Japan, beating MHFU at 5.36 million.

The very least, Japan's 3DS support will explode this fall with Monster Hunter AND Pokemon releasing a month apart.

You realize that every PSP MH outside of the newest were all port/expansions/re-releases with extra content. That's what makes their sales even more amazing, imo.

I was thinking, why don't we see too many PS1/PS2 JRPG's on the 3DS? I mean we saw a lot of PS1 remakes on PSP, why not any more on 3DS? I mean, I could see Final Fantasy VII-IX selling very well on the 3DS, Saga Frontier, Arc the Lad, XenoGears, Chrono Cross, Brave Fencer Musashi, Kingdom Hearts I & 2, Star Ocean 3, Romancing Saga, etc. All these games sold as good or better then the Monster Hunter games on PS2 (only MH2 did modestly well).

I mean 3DS got Tales of the Abyss which sold 85% as well WW on the 3DS as it did on the PS2 (wait VGC doesn't have data for the PS2 game outside of Japan). Star Ocean for PSP did better then Star Ocean for SNES, FF3 did better on DS then it did on NES, and all those FF/DQ remakes sold fairly well too!

Plus the new games in the old franchises, like Dragon Quest IX sold the best on DS.

Then again, some remakes like Front Mission bombed, so you never know. Anyway. just a rant, I'd like to see more retro style RPG's on the 3DS before everyone switches to shovelware on iPads....

Square has slowed down on the remakes after the giant amount of criticism they received this past generation. Not all of it was undeserved, but they're concentrating on bigger consoles titles for the time being.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

EricFabian on 24 June 2013
Michael-5 said:

It's at 119 points with 4 days to go. Gained 14 points yesterday, so it could get up to 170 points before it releases.

Heck the PSP version could break 100! I might get this for PSP if it localizes.


hey calm down 14 points in the weekend. Today it will get 6/7 points



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Boutros on 24 June 2013