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Forums - Sales Discussion - COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

Conegamer on 24 June 2013

Good stuff all round at the top, even Pikmin joining in!



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Farsala on 24 June 2013
gigantor21 said:
Farsala said:
Kresnik said:

Also lol, two people moved their pre-orders from one version of BlazBlue to another :P


And that is why I think 1 pt is one preorder at a comg store.

I can't imagine any individual store being big enough to have 1100+ physical copies of Monster Hunter at launch.

It is a small chain of stores, and one that likes MH at that.



Farsala on 24 June 2013
Michael-5 said:
outlawauron said:
Michael-5 said:

So wait, if Monster Hunter is already over 1,000 pre-orders, and typically a nintendo game sells 500-800x during week 1, then does that mean true Japanese pre-orders are in the range of 500-800k already? It's it's adding 70 units a day, and has 83 more days to go, that's another 4,900 more pre-orders, and it;s likely that pre-orders will spike right before the game releases.

So with at least 6,000 pre-orders, maybe 8,000 on COMG, and 500-800x games sold per COMG pre-order, that's a minimum of 3 million games sold week 1, max 6 million....

wow, this could easily become the biggest game in the series. Great move switching to Nintendo, clearly this was keeping the PSP alive and is killing the Vita.

There's something wrong with your math here. Somewhere, because there's no way in hell it'll do 3 million week 1 and it's highly unlikely it'll pass the last PSP release.

It added 66 units today didn't it? I rounded it to 70, but I also rounded the number of days left from 83 -> 80.

70*80 is 4,900. Plus the 1,100 it already has that's 6,000 COMG pre-orders.

This is pretty insane, but I'm looking at old daily changes to see it 66 was unusually high, and it's not......wait no! It is! The last week it added 74, 41, 35, 37, 32, 36, 75, 65....

So it looks like the game adds double the pre-orders on weekends. If it adds a more realistic 50 units a week average, that's 4,000 more COMG pre-orders, plus 1,100 it already has and that's 5,100. A max for growth would be more like 6,500 now.

So that means that Monster Hunter 4 could open to as little as 2.5 million, or as much as 5.0 million, depending on the extrapolation factor (500-800x number of week one sales) and which estimate for COMG you take. Either way, not bad, and this could end up above the PSP installments.

----

Where is Pokemon X/Y? Shouldn't it appear on the chart some point soon? It releases only 30 days after Monster Hunter.


i think it will act more like a PSP game then a 3DS game. Or more like a MH game. MH3P did around 5000pts then opened to 2m. So if MH4 ends up at around 4k- 6k then I think it will be in the 2m range. 2k-4k would be more like 1.5m.



FaintZ on 24 June 2013
Michael-5 said:
outlawauron said:
Michael-5 said:

So wait, if Monster Hunter is already over 1,000 pre-orders, and typically a nintendo game sells 500-800x during week 1, then does that mean true Japanese pre-orders are in the range of 500-800k already? It's it's adding 70 units a day, and has 83 more days to go, that's another 4,900 more pre-orders, and it;s likely that pre-orders will spike right before the game releases.

So with at least 6,000 pre-orders, maybe 8,000 on COMG, and 500-800x games sold per COMG pre-order, that's a minimum of 3 million games sold week 1, max 6 million....

wow, this could easily become the biggest game in the series. Great move switching to Nintendo, clearly this was keeping the PSP alive and is killing the Vita.

There's something wrong with your math here. Somewhere, because there's no way in hell it'll do 3 million week 1 and it's highly unlikely it'll pass the last PSP release.

It added 66 units today didn't it? I rounded it to 70, but I also rounded the number of days left from 83 -> 80.

70*80 is 4,900. Plus the 1,100 it already has that's 6,000 COMG pre-orders.

This is pretty insane, but I'm looking at old daily changes to see it 66 was unusually high, and it's not......wait no! It is! The last week it added 74, 41, 35, 37, 32, 36, 75, 65....

So it looks like the game adds double the pre-orders on weekends. If it adds a more realistic 50 units a week average, that's 4,000 more COMG pre-orders, plus 1,100 it already has and that's 5,100. A max for growth would be more like 6,500 now.

So that means that Monster Hunter 4 could open to as little as 2.5 million, or as much as 5.0 million, depending on the extrapolation factor (500-800x number of week one sales) and which estimate for COMG you take. Either way, not bad, and this could end up above the PSP installments.

----

Where is Pokemon X/Y? Shouldn't it appear on the chart some point soon? It releases only 30 days after Monster Hunter.


The first week record in Japan is 2,6 milion, Pokemon B/W.

And I don't think MH4 will sell more than the PSP games, so everything over 2 milion is out of reach.

In my opinion of course.



gigantor21 on 24 June 2013
Farsala said:
gigantor21 said:
Farsala said:
Kresnik said:

Also lol, two people moved their pre-orders from one version of BlazBlue to another :P


And that is why I think 1 pt is one preorder at a comg store.

I can't imagine any individual store being big enough to have 1100+ physical copies of Monster Hunter at launch.

It is a small chain of stores, and one that likes MH at that.

Oh, I thought you meant just one of them, not the whole store chain. :p



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Kresnik on 24 June 2013
Michael-5 said:

<Lots of maths>


Please don't take this the wrong way, but I feel like you're going back into thinking-too-hard-with-numbers-about-the-situation like you did with Gran Turismo 5 to come to some of your conclusions :P

MonHun 4 is going to be a monster game when it releases, no doubt.  Perhaps it'll even beat MHP3's points on here and FW sales if it's very lucky.  However, 3m+ FW seems impossible to be.  I'm struggling to believe it'll get to 2m+ because Portable 3rd didn't and that was on a larger installbase and was basically the biggest name on the console at the time by a country mile.

Plus, digital sales will be more of a factor this time around if previous 3DS releases are anything to go by.

Obviously, there's plenty more excitement to come from MH4 in the charts here but I'd suggest that you might want to keep your expectations in line a tad more :P



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Kresnik on 24 June 2013

DemoniOtaku said:

Gundam breaker on vita wasn't announced for later on the summer?


It got announced the same time as the PS3 version but then the PS3 version got given a release date and the Vita version didn't.  

It's a shame it's not releasing day-and-date, because One Piece Pirate Warriors 2 showed that a Vita version of games like this can do extremely well (100k physical + ~20% digital = 120k.  Not too shabby at all).



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DemoniOtaku on 24 June 2013
Kresnik said:

DemoniOtaku said:

Gundam breaker on vita wasn't announced for later on the summer?


It got announced the same time as the PS3 version but then the PS3 version got given a release date and the Vita version didn't.  

It's a shame it's not releasing day-and-date, because One Piece Pirate Warriors 2 showed that a Vita version of games like this can do extremely well (100k physical + ~20% digital = 120k.  Not too shabby at all).

Well... Since the beginning it was announced for Vita later... I think the game was being developed for PS3 and then they decided to port it to Vita... but didn't delayed the PS3 version... just announced Vita's...



 

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outlawauron on 24 June 2013
tbone51 said:
outlawauron said:
Michael-5 said:

So wait, if Monster Hunter is already over 1,000 pre-orders, and typically a nintendo game sells 500-800x during week 1, then does that mean true Japanese pre-orders are in the range of 500-800k already? It's it's adding 70 units a day, and has 83 more days to go, that's another 4,900 more pre-orders, and it;s likely that pre-orders will spike right before the game releases.

So with at least 6,000 pre-orders, maybe 8,000 on COMG, and 500-800x games sold per COMG pre-order, that's a minimum of 3 million games sold week 1, max 6 million....

wow, this could easily become the biggest game in the series. Great move switching to Nintendo, clearly this was keeping the PSP alive and is killing the Vita.

There's something wrong with your math here. Somewhere, because there's no way in hell it'll do 3 million week 1 and it's highly unlikely it'll pass the last PSP release.

i agree with it not doing that high (imo it do between 1.10mil-1.40mil FW with digital sales) but how is it highly unlikely to surpass the PSP installments?

Because the 3DS isn't as big as the PSP. While it's catching up, you should see the progression of the PSP releases and their sales. I don't think that anyone can just assume it'll automatically top 5 million on a 11-12 million userbase. Especially now that the series has cooled down a bit.



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Kresnik on 24 June 2013
DemoniOtaku said:

Well... Since the beginning it was announced for Vita later... I think the game was being developed for PS3 and then they decided to port it to Vita... but didn't delayed the PS3 version... just announced Vita's...


No, they announced them both at the same time last year (check the date of this article), but then by March they'd announced the date of the PS3 version but hadn't said a word about the Vita version (even Siliconera was confused whether the date was for Vita too).

No matter, it'll come when it comes.  I suspect they're prioritising PS3 version too.



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