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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo's FY2014 Projections for Wii U Software: DAFUQ?

 

Do YOU think the WiiU will see 50m software units by this time next year?

They'll sell more than that 21 25.61%
 
They'll be right on that target 10 12.20%
 
They'll sell less, but not much less 20 24.39%
 
Not a chance in hell 25 30.49%
 
See results 6 7.32%
 
Total:82
Soundwave on 24 April 2013
TheLastStarFighter said:
People seem to forget about the existing titles. NintendoLand and NSMBU have tie rates over 60%. With Nintendo games it's not uncommon for that to continue. New buyers this Christmas will want some 2D Mario regardless of new games that may come out. Even if tie rates drop to 50% you're still looking at 10 million more sales for those old titles if Nintendo sells the hardware they expect.

If We see MarioKart, MarioU, Pikmin3, WiiFitU and other 1st party titles, plus AAA third party launched same day as other systems like COD, AC4, Watch_Dogs and maybe GTA5 there is no reason to think Nintendo wouldn't hit their expectations.

The real question is if they move their expected hardware. I think they will, but if the hardware sales continue to be slow then they won't hit software targets regardless of the tie ratio of the big titles.


Nintendo's missed their hardware targets for basically all their hardware lines the past 3 years.

Yes, even with Mario Kart 7 and Mario 3D Land and Kid Icarus and Resident Evil they missed their 3DS hardware forecast for that fiscal year (and they missed it again this year).

So I would view that hardware forecast with a lot of skepticism.

Like I said, hardware/software forecasts given by company's at the beginning of the fiscal year are usually their "best case scenario". As the year goes on generally they revise downwards.

Nintendo really needs something NEW, like a Brain Training or Wii Sports to come out of nowhere. That's the type of thing that actually crushes hardware/software targets, these existing franchises, while great, can only do so much, and the existing IP that Nintendo I think benefitted tremendously from the blue ocean crazes of 4-5 years ago.



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TheLastStarFighter on 24 April 2013
Soundwave said:
TheLastStarFighter said:
People seem to forget about the existing titles. NintendoLand and NSMBU have tie rates over 60%. With Nintendo games it's not uncommon for that to continue. New buyers this Christmas will want some 2D Mario regardless of new games that may come out. Even if tie rates drop to 50% you're still looking at 10 million more sales for those old titles if Nintendo sells the hardware they expect.

If We see MarioKart, MarioU, Pikmin3, WiiFitU and other 1st party titles, plus AAA third party launched same day as other systems like COD, AC4, Watch_Dogs and maybe GTA5 there is no reason to think Nintendo wouldn't hit their expectations.

The real question is if they move their expected hardware. I think they will, but if the hardware sales continue to be slow then they won't hit software targets regardless of the tie ratio of the big titles.


Nintendo's missed their hardware targets for basically all their hardware lines the past 3 years.

Yes, even with Mario Kart 7 and Mario 3D Land and Kid Icarus and Resident Evil they missed their 3DS hardware forecast for that fiscal year (and they missed it again this year).

So I would view that hardware forecast with a lot of skepticism.

Like I said, hardware/software forecasts given by company's at the beginning of the fiscal year are usually their "best case scenario". As the year goes on generally they revise downwards.

Nintendo really needs something NEW, like a Brain Training or Wii Sports to come out of nowhere. That's the type of thing that actually crushes hardware/software targets, these existing franchises, while great, can only do so much, and the existing IP that Nintendo I think benefitted tremendously from the blue ocean crazes of 4-5 years ago.

I really need to see what Nintendo is bringing, software-wise, for the coming Christmas season.  They need some titles with strong brand value, and titles that excite and capture imagination.  I also want to know what direction PS4 and 720 are going... if they will be expensive, have pricey subscription models, interesting software and so on.  I think 9 million units is fairly modest if the software is strong and other new competition is expensive.  If the new software bores and the new competition is really exciting and affordable, Nintendo will have a more difficult time.  My expectation is that Nintendo will be OK, but it's too early to tell.



Soundwave on 24 April 2013
TheLastStarFighter said:
Soundwave said:
TheLastStarFighter said:
People seem to forget about the existing titles. NintendoLand and NSMBU have tie rates over 60%. With Nintendo games it's not uncommon for that to continue. New buyers this Christmas will want some 2D Mario regardless of new games that may come out. Even if tie rates drop to 50% you're still looking at 10 million more sales for those old titles if Nintendo sells the hardware they expect.

If We see MarioKart, MarioU, Pikmin3, WiiFitU and other 1st party titles, plus AAA third party launched same day as other systems like COD, AC4, Watch_Dogs and maybe GTA5 there is no reason to think Nintendo wouldn't hit their expectations.

The real question is if they move their expected hardware. I think they will, but if the hardware sales continue to be slow then they won't hit software targets regardless of the tie ratio of the big titles.


Nintendo's missed their hardware targets for basically all their hardware lines the past 3 years.

Yes, even with Mario Kart 7 and Mario 3D Land and Kid Icarus and Resident Evil they missed their 3DS hardware forecast for that fiscal year (and they missed it again this year).

So I would view that hardware forecast with a lot of skepticism.

Like I said, hardware/software forecasts given by company's at the beginning of the fiscal year are usually their "best case scenario". As the year goes on generally they revise downwards.

Nintendo really needs something NEW, like a Brain Training or Wii Sports to come out of nowhere. That's the type of thing that actually crushes hardware/software targets, these existing franchises, while great, can only do so much, and the existing IP that Nintendo I think benefitted tremendously from the blue ocean crazes of 4-5 years ago.

I really need to see what Nintendo is bringing, software-wise, for the coming Christmas season.  They need some titles with strong brand value, and titles that excite and capture imagination.  I also want to know what direction PS4 and 720 are going... if they will be expensive, have pricey subscription models, interesting software and so on.  I think 9 million units is fairly modest if the software is strong and other new competition is expensive.  If the new software bores and the new competition is really exciting and affordable, Nintendo will have a more difficult time.  My expectation is that Nintendo will be OK, but it's too early to tell.

I think you basically know what you're gonna get from Nintendo in the best case scenario. That would be Mario Kart. And Mario 3D. And maybe Smash Bros. can eek in for March 2014 or something.

And they will be fun games that are well reviewed and of high quality that sell reasonably well.

I don't anticipate a ton of surprises.

They should be "OK" next fiscal year, the 3DS should be sold for pure profit for the entire next fiscal year, I don't think they'll come close to the 100 billion yen operating profit Iwata wants, but 1/3 of that should be doable and a nice chunk of change.

I think more of the challenge for Nintendo is going to be accepting that the DS/Wii era is over and it's increidbly unlikely that they will ever sniff that type of profit again. If they can get to 15-16 million 3DS' shipped next year and 7.5 million Wii Us as their bottom line on top of a bunch of sales from Pokemon X/Y, Zelda: Link to the Past II, Mario Kart U, Mario EAD Tokyo, and Monster Hunter 4, that's fine.



the_dengle on 24 April 2013

Bear in mind this probably includes all digital sales -- not only of retail titles, but also those smaller $15-and-under games, including $5 Virtual Console titles.

So it sounds ridiculous but I suppose it's possible.



Mr Khan on 24 April 2013
Soleron said:
The real craziness is the hardware projection of 9m compared to 3.45m so far. 38m software makes sense for 9m hardware units.

So either EVERYTHING is coming out (Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Zelda, Smash Bros) or they're delusional.

Likely a little of both. Nintendo has a history of over-optimistic projections, but they'd also be suicidal not to go in this holiday with all guns a-blazing.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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scottie on 24 April 2013

So wait, that time period when we've all identified that there are lots of big games coming out, Nintendo predicts that they'll sell a lot of games?

Mental.



reviniente on 24 April 2013

They'll fall short of their target, ever so slightly. Like they've been doing so for a while.



Soundwave on 24 April 2013

They actually weren't even close to the forecast they gave at the start of last year.

They were forecasting 18 million 3DS (actual result = 13.9 million 3DS) and 11 million Wii + Wii U (not even close), which was then revised to 5.5 million Wii U (actual result = 3.6 million Wii U).

Hitting the targets they set at the beginning of the year, is going to be tough to say the least, as they are optimistic in nature and partly by design -- you want to be bullish on sales expectations at least early in the year to give stockholders hope.

It's kind of like a parent telling his kids they're going to Disneyland, then downgrading it gradually to Lego Land, then finally settling on going to the movies. You want to do it gradually, lol.



DieAppleDie on 24 April 2013

ok, targets are ALWAYS overly optimistic
they have to by definition



Pineapple on 24 April 2013

Oh, as it turns out, 38 million is exactly what the GameCube shipped in the FY from April 2002 to April 03. In other words, Nintendo is suggesting a low software sales as those of the GameCube. 

It is really not - at all - an optimistic projection. Compared to te hardware number, it's downright ridiculous. If they meet their hardware projections, they'll blow past the software projection, possibly by more than 10 million. 

Source for the GC numbers: http://www.vgchartz.com/article/3035/big-4-videogame-hw-amp-sw-shipments-from-1983-to-2009and-beyond/