@bigjon

rather than just bumping the thread with an update of what (ps3+Xbox) - wii equals, I think you should also include market share per region, and total market share.

Even though I could easily do all of those myself, since you took it upon yourself to make this thread, I vote you do all 5 calculations every week

 Well in 2007 PS+360 sold about 7M combined in the last 10 weeks and Wii about 6.3M so if next year was exactly the same (which it won't due to increased monthly supply+stockpile+more airfreight than this year due to higher monthly supply) it would need to be 700k ahead of the 50% mark before the holiday season to keep it so it would need to sell about 6.47M (5.77+0.7) between now and mid-november which I believe will be hard to achieve.

I expect all 3 consoles to sell better this year, especially during the holiday, which would not only make this 700k lead above the 50% mark harder to reach but also make it less likely to be enough.

When I look at last year's yearly sales (about 7.6M PS3 8.1M 360 and 16.3M Wiis) and boost the PS3 and 360 to about 10M each (doable though more probably 9 for one and 9.5-10 for the other) I arrive at a combine 18-20M so the Wii would need to sell 24-26M this year to get 50% (barely) which is possible (24M should be easy with only one production boost, 26 possible but less likely).

So I think it can do it but it depends on it keeping doing as good as last year (i.e. selling everything by the end of the year even with the bigger supply regardless of whether there are patches in space and time where it will be available) and the PS360 not increasing by too much compared to last year which is why I am currently sceptikal.

 If MGS4/GT5 and GTA4 do not boost PS3 and PS3/360 sales enough to be significant then it will, otherwise no.

Nice thread, will be checking in later in the year and see what the magic number is :)

And amazing cake :D

ps360 only outsold the wii during holiday period because of supply constraints

i realize wii will still be constrained this holiday season as well, but if nintendo ups their supply, then they may have enough supply this holiday season to outsell the other 2 combined...it all depends on supply, not demand

I like this thread and will love the keep seeing the "magic number".

But still I would like to see ps3 selling well also so overall gaming market would be good. But of course would love to see wii hit 50% market share at one time.

hope the magic number goes into the negatives soon (surpassing it). Wii will dominate!

I dont think it'll happen this year. A little game called GTA 4 might move a few consoles.

I think it will be a close call this year. I did not get into guessing how many consoles GTA4 would move. I just stuck with a solid AVERAGE... the summer months will be much lower than this week, but I used this week.

I would put my money on December for 50% share.... I'm sure it will be some time between mid November and end of January (assuming there are no Jan shortages like this year) and December is in the middle of that.

More I think about, I hope the Wii passes the 50% Market before its second birthday... For it to have a 50% after just two years... wow...