The Wii's Magic Number -

[Srilumpa]

bigjon said:

 

1. I based my numbers off weeks in the Year. I just subracted the 10 holiday weeks, so actually my calc ended in mid october, I was giving the 31st as a nice round number.

2. If nintendo stockpiles 360k a month(less then I used in my main post due to the fact there are 4.33 weeks per month) they will have over 3 million Wii in their holiday stockpile in addition to the 2.3+ they get from production, so for 10 weeks that is over 5.5 million "natural Wiis" and another 3 million stockpile. If nintendo can sell 8.5-9 million Wiis, in the 10 week holiday period, I can see the 360/PS3 keeping pace at best. So they will maintain their marketshare they gained in 08 in the holidays season.

I think 09 could be really good for Wii, that is when all of the 3rd party games that were started late will come to fruition and be released.

 Well in 2007 PS+360 sold about 7M combined in the last 10 weeks and Wii about 6.3M so if next year was exactly the same (which it won't due to increased monthly supply+stockpile+more airfreight than this year due to higher monthly supply) it would need to be 700k ahead of the 50% mark before the holiday season to keep it so it would need to sell about 6.47M (5.77+0.7) between now and mid-november which I believe will be hard to achieve.

I expect all 3 consoles to sell better this year, especially during the holiday, which would not only make this 700k lead above the 50% mark harder to reach but also make it less likely to be enough.

When I look at last year's yearly sales (about 7.6M PS3 8.1M 360 and 16.3M Wiis) and boost the PS3 and 360 to about 10M each (doable though more probably 9 for one and 9.5-10 for the other) I arrive at a combine 18-20M so the Wii would need to sell 24-26M this year to get 50% (barely) which is possible (24M should be easy with only one production boost, 26 possible but less likely).

So I think it can do it but it depends on it keeping doing as good as last year (i.e. selling everything by the end of the year even with the bigger supply regardless of whether there are patches in space and time where it will be available) and the PS360 not increasing by too much compared to last year which is why I am currently sceptikal.

 If MGS4/GT5 and GTA4 do not boost PS3 and PS3/360 sales enough to be significant then it will, otherwise no.