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Forums - Sony - The Last of Us outpacing Uncharted 3

nnodley on 07 April 2013
Jay520 said:
There are a few things I gather from this. The first is that the game is probably overtracked - I believe this is the case. And the second is that it has high preorders at the moment because it was announced much earlier than Uncharted 3. So it seems somewhat understandable that its preorders are matching Uncharted 3. At this point, Uncharted 3 had been available for pre-order for a fairly shorter time.

This is illustrated by the way the two curves differ from each other. The UC3 curve appears to be concave up while the TLoU curves appears to be concave down. If this trend continues then in a few weeks the lines will cross and UC3 will overtake TLoU. Also, I think a higher proportion of TLoU buyers will be more informed gamers, so a higher proportion of sales will be pre-orders without necessarily having high legs; similar to games like hardcore RPGs which can have high pre-orders and low legs.

Those are good pre-orders though and I do expect the game will be a success (around 3m, give or take 500k), but I doubt it will be comparable to Uncharted for several reasons.

Well your analysis is utter shit.  :-p  Just kidding

 

But I don't think it's overtracked by that much if it is.  TLOU will be available for preorder for about 7 or so months more than Uncharted 3, but I don't think preorders picked up for TLOU until a release was announced and the collectors editions too.  Naughty Dog deserves to have TLOU sell really well and it will, but I'm hoping the preorders are correct.

I think it will do around 1 million first week and end somewhere between 4.5-6.0 million.



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Kantor on 07 April 2013

Uncharted 3 had the enormous bonus of being released during the holiday season, so Last of Us will take a big hit from releasing in June instead. In terms of (US) preorders alone, though, it seems quite likely that it can overtake Uncharted 3, yes.



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nnodley on 07 April 2013
Kantor said:
Uncharted 3 had the enormous bonus of being released during the holiday season, so Last of Us will take a big hit from releasing in June instead. In terms of (US) preorders alone, though, it seems quite likely that it can overtake Uncharted 3, yes.

Actually I don't think it being released in June will make it take a hit.  I think Sony will actually make sure it won't.  If Sony actually giving TLOU a trailer during the season finale of The Walking Dead is anything to go by, then I think they will market it very heavily.



Jaywood2010 on 07 April 2013
nnodley said:
Kantor said:
Uncharted 3 had the enormous bonus of being released during the holiday season, so Last of Us will take a big hit from releasing in June instead. In terms of (US) preorders alone, though, it seems quite likely that it can overtake Uncharted 3, yes.

Actually I don't think it being released in June will make it take a hit.  I think Sony will actually make sure it won't.  If Sony actually giving TLOU a trailer during the season finale of The Walking Dead is anything to go by, then I think they will market it very heavily.


I hope so, it looks amazing.  I cant possibly see this game doing bad and as long as they market it correctly it should be successful.  Plus Zombies are popular right now.




       

Metrium on 07 April 2013

Good, UC3 was a lame cash in imo. This game looks better and more creative.



 

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arcane_chaos on 07 April 2013

very interesting, sucks that it got pushed backed, sucks even more that the demo got pushed back!! got to wait to may 31!!!



dsage01 on 07 April 2013
Metrium said:
Good, UC3 was a lame cash in imo. This game looks better and more creative.


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nnodley on 07 April 2013
JayWood2010 said:
nnodley said:
Kantor said:
Uncharted 3 had the enormous bonus of being released during the holiday season, so Last of Us will take a big hit from releasing in June instead. In terms of (US) preorders alone, though, it seems quite likely that it can overtake Uncharted 3, yes.

Actually I don't think it being released in June will make it take a hit.  I think Sony will actually make sure it won't.  If Sony actually giving TLOU a trailer during the season finale of The Walking Dead is anything to go by, then I think they will market it very heavily.


I hope so, it looks amazing.  I cant possibly see this game doing bad and as long as they market it correctly it should be successful.  Plus Zombies are popular right now.

I know right.  This is my most wanted game of 2013.  So much that I got the survivor's edition right when they were announced.  I would have gotten the post pandemic edition, but $150 was a bit much.  

They would be dumb not to market it heavily though.



dsage01 on 07 April 2013

UC3 is under tracked as well according to Sony PR.



nnodley on 07 April 2013
dsage01 said:
UC3 is under tracked as well according to Sony PR.

Everything is undertracked these days.