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Forums - Nintendo - Put a fork in the Wii U, it is done. [Sensible discussion only, no flaming]

uno on 22 March 2013

opinions are like internet posts, everybody has one and its usually full of s%$#



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Max King of the Wild on 22 March 2013
binary solo said:
Max King of the Wild said:
binary solo said:
reggin_bolas said:
binary solo said:
I think 50 million is doable. But considering PS3 doing 55-65% of PS2 is regarded as abject failure by those who like to see the worst in things, especially anything Sony. Wii U doing 50% of Wii should be seen in the same light.

However, potential should be taken into account. PS3 had the potential to sell upwards of 120 million, but it ended up being handicapped by various factors. I never thought Wii U had Wii-like sales potential, purely for the reason that millions of people who've never bought a console in their life bought a Wii, and the likelihood of that segment of the Wii market becoming multi-generation console owners was always pretty low.

The people who will buy a Wii U are: hard out Nintendo fans (25 million); the multi / all console crowd (10 million?); some of the Wii's blue ocean crowd (10 million); and 5 million more for good measure. Anything substantially more than that is gravy for the Wii U. So Nintendo's job really is to bring Wii U to per unit profitability ASAP so they can get the vast majority of Wii U's sold at a profit, not relying on people buying at least one game to turn a profit.

Actually, I think you are grossly overestimating the potential. Sure, there are die hard fans that will buy no matter what junk they shove into the market. But really, minimum 25 million? Absolutely not. That's the total sales for the entire life cycle if you are lucky.

Just wait another year for PS4/Nextbox to hit the market. I believe this is the end of Nintendo as a dominant player in the industry. I believe the abject failure of the Wii U will force the company into restructuring ala Sega. They will keep dominion in the handheld market but they will also eject themselves from mainstream console competition. Don't be surprised if you see Mario and Zelda on PS5.

Yep, I think Nintendo's base support is 25 million.



that would mean the game cube sold to less people than its base support.... I would honestly only put the base support at under 20mil and not barely under 20 either... more closer to 15mil if that

Yes, but that was last generation. Can you honestly assert that the Wii hasn't grown Nintendo's base at all? That's as ridiculous as suggesting Nintendo's base support is 70% of Wii sales. Nintendo's base support fell to about 15 million with GC, I reckon. But I'm predicting that Wii has probably built up that base by about 10 million.

Naw, nintendo didn't gain that many overly estatic fans that will buy anything Nintendo because of the Wii. They will sell more than the Game Cube but that doesn't mean the hardest of the hard nintendo fans increased much. It just means they are doing a better job of attracting the people that don't have loyalty



Max King of the Wild on 22 March 2013
Sal.Paradise said:

It's preposterous to judge Wii U before its second christmas with Mario.



HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! SOOOOO TRUE!

I was thinking about busting out the chalk board but I know I'll be banned for it... even though it was common practise 7 years ago



Max King of the Wild on 22 March 2013
JGarret said:
oni-link said:

If the Wii U is well done...then the Vita should be burnt isn't it?  Honestly, the system has only been out for 4 months and all this doom and gloom has not stopped since it's release.  Nintendo didn't make it easy on themselves having such a drought on the system (~2-3 months of no significant game release will really shoot your sales down).  Once the games start coming out the Wii U should start seeing decent sales. It will be interesting to see what excuse people will come up with when the PS4/720 sells less or equal to what the Wii U is selling at the moment!!!


The Wii U is currently selling below what the Gamecube and the '$599 PS3' were, which is pretty terrible, so if the PS4/720 manage to sell even worse than a system that´s selling extremely low numbers, then don´t just a stick a fork in the Wii U, stick it in the entire console market.


Exactly, the people saying that better pray that Sony and MS will release their console with a sales flurry and surpass the Wii U's sales shortly after launch. If Sony or MS fails the 3rd parties wont turn to the Wii U... they will look towards apple or samsung while abandoning the home consoles... If that were the case Nintendo wouldn't be the company we know of right now if at all... at least Sony and MS can leave the market and still have a company from other divisions



Netyaroze on 22 March 2013
Max King of the Wild said:
Sal.Paradise said:

It's preposterous to judge Wii U before its second christmas with Mario.



HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! SOOOOO TRUE!

I was thinking about busting out the chalk board but I know I'll be banned for it... even though it was common practise 7 years ago


It wouldn't be funny yet. Nothing came to the rescue since launch so it would be pretty empty right now.  



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Max King of the Wild on 22 March 2013
Netyaroze said:
Max King of the Wild said:
Sal.Paradise said:

It's preposterous to judge Wii U before its second christmas with Mario.



HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! SOOOOO TRUE!

I was thinking about busting out the chalk board but I know I'll be banned for it... even though it was common practise 7 years ago


It wouldn't be funny yet. Nothing came to the rescue since launch so it would be pretty empty right now.  


Nintendo Land, NSMB2, Zombie U, Monster Hunter, Lego City

Definatly more out now than when the Ps3 one started



snowdog on 22 March 2013
AbbathTheGrim said:
snowdog said:


Before the end of the calendar year the Wii U will have an installed userbase between 10m and 15m. Guaranteed.


Guaranteed? Be careful, someone that likes bets could take this one.



It'll do 10m easy as long as 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8 in particular release before Black Friday.

It's sold around 3m so far, should do another 3m at least between now and November and should do 4m between November and the end of the year, even without a price cut.

What's going to be more interesting is whether analysts, gaming journalists and forum members will start harping on about Sony and Microsoft going third party when the more expensive PS4 and 720 have worse launches in terms of sales than the Wii U.

Sony have made a huge mistake in opting for 8GB of GDDR5 and a GPU pushing 1.8TFlops, and if the rumours are true about the 720 needing to be always online and not being able to play used games then both the PS4 and 720 could struggle to sell, particularly after Christmas and the New Year.

If the Wii U has the $50 price cut I think it's going to have then we could be looking at the Wii U retailing for $249.99/$299.99, the PS4 retailing for (imo) $449.99/$499.99 and the 720 for $399.99/$449.99 and the Wii U having the advantage of a bigger software library (assuming that neither the PS4 and 720 have backwards compatibility).

Sony in particular could be in BIG trouble this gen.



Max King of the Wild on 22 March 2013
snowdog said:
AbbathTheGrim said:
snowdog said:


Before the end of the calendar year the Wii U will have an installed userbase between 10m and 15m. Guaranteed.


Guaranteed? Be careful, someone that likes bets could take this one.



It'll do 10m easy as long as 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8 in particular release before Black Friday.

It's sold around 3m so far, should do another 3m at least between now and November and should do 4m between November and the end of the year, even without a price cut.

What's going to be more interesting is whether analysts, gaming journalists and forum members will start harping on about Sony and Microsoft going third party when the more expensive PS4 and 720 have worse launches in terms of sales than the Wii U.

Sony have made a huge mistake in opting for 8GB of GDDR5 and a GPU pushing 1.8TFlops, and if the rumours are true about the 720 needing to be always online and not being able to play used games then both the PS4 and 720 could struggle to sell, particularly after Christmas and the New Year.

If the Wii U has the $50 price cut I think it's going to have then we could be looking at the Wii U retailing for $249.99/$299.99, the PS4 retailing for (imo) $449.99/$499.99 and the 720 for $399.99/$449.99 and the Wii U having the advantage of a bigger software library (assuming that neither the PS4 and 720 have backwards compatibility).

Sony in particular could be in BIG trouble this gen.

They probably won't even ship 10m by the end of the year.



Max King of the Wild on 22 March 2013

Snowdog - first off... Nintendo has sold only 320k in Japan and US in the first 2 months of this year. The summer gets even slower... why the hell do you think it will sell 3m more in ~6 more months? They would need to quadruple their output starting next week.



Soundwave on 22 March 2013

PS4/720 will be fine.

They have all the third party support in the world from every major publishing house and they will get all "dudebros" franchises and probably a ton of easy PC ports now too (see: Blizzard at the PS4 event ... why? Because PS4 is basically a PC box, 720 is likely the same). Bungie's Destiny coming to PS4/720 early on for example, Star Wars 1313, the best looking console versions of Watch Dogs, Battlefield 4, Call of Duty Modern Warfare 4, etc. guauruntee a great launch window even without a single MS or Sony 1st/2nd party game. 

The Wii U basically has Nintendo and very little else. Platinum Games is good for 2 titles it looks like, but they're also working on PS4/720 (?) it seems.

Plus the XBox/Playstation audience is more of the 16-40 year old male gamer that has more disposable income and is more likely to buy on day 1 as long as there's a new Call of Duty or Battlefield or whatever.

They are not going to rely on soccer moms, grandpas, and 10-year-olds to sell their console early on (not saying MS in particular won't go for that audience, but several years down the line when the price point is cheaper). Nintendo's been abandoned by the casual audience because they don't behave the way regular core gamers do, they don't see the need to upgrade to Wii U (Just Dance is available on the regular ol' Wii or their XBox 360) and they are happy with $1-$2 games on their tablet/phone.