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Forums - Gaming - Will GoW:A or Gears:J sell more then Metal Gear:R 1st week

CGI-Quality said:
RazorDragon said:
JayWood2010 said:
CGI-Quality said:
RazorDragon said:
They won't. I see no hype over GoW: A and Gears: J and, most importantly, no ads.

No hype? Um, there's hype all over the place for Ascension, especially since the demo/beta. Gears hype is fairly low, by comparison.


TV ads. Not internet. Gears:J is getting ads as well across the internet and XBL.  Internet hype vs real world hype is both very different, and I see little hype compared to there predecessors.


I was gonna answer that but, well, you already did.

Then I'm curious, if he already answered, you agree that "no hype" is not actually correct?


Maybe my choice of words was not adequate. By saying "I see no hype", I was making a direct comparison to the amount of hype existant over the other games of those series and these new releases.



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007BondAgent said:
JayWood2010 said:
007BondAgent said:
JayWood2010 said:
CGI-Quality said:
JayWood2010 said:
CGI-Quality said:
RazorDragon said:
They won't. I see no hype over GoW: A and Gears: J and, most importantly, no ads.

No hype? Um, there's hype all over the place for Ascension, especially since the demo/beta. Gears hype is fairly low, by comparison.


TV ads. Not internet. Gears:J is getting ads as well across the internet and XBL.  Internet hype vs real world hype is both very different, and I see little hype compared to there predecessors.

Neither has a predecessor. Second, I've seen a commercial for both Gears J and God of War: Ascension, though the latter was promotional and not an actual ad. On the net, yes, but unlike the past, net hype makes a difference in 2013.

Now looking at the pre-order numbers, both are behind the last titles that released, Gears especially, but that can be attributed more to each title's status, not lack of "hype".


-_-  You knew very well on what i meant by predecessors.

No internet hype is very small compared to the real world.  Yes it helps but people who visit forums and gaming websites are in a big minority.  It helps getting ads on youtube though since that is basically a form of telivision and your every day person will visit.

And yes Gears Judgement is way behind Gears 3 but relatively close to God of War Ascension and  I wouldn't doubt it if Gears Judgement actually will have a higher preorder rate than God of War Asencion by its final week.

2
God of War: Ascension (PS3)
Sony Computer Entertainment, Action
3 20,705 249,750
8
Gears of War: Judgment (X360)
Microsoft Game Studios, Shooter
4 53,796 172,132

Notice the weekly change


those gears pre orders are a joke, no matter what way you look at it


I think you have missed my point.  Reread through some of the things i said.  They are both going to fall short of there predecessors is my point. And if you consider Gears Judement not to be hyped then GoWA isnt really hyped either.


of course they will both fall short, but the difference beteen Gears 3 and Judgment is just huge, much much much bigger then gow3 to Ascension


I have been looking for the graph comparisons.  Can you link them to me?

And no it isnt as big as the difference between gears J and Gears 3.  Gears J just doesnt have any hype but Gears 3 had over 1m preorders if im correct.  I cant remember how much GoWIII had but didnt it have like 600k preorders?  




       

JayWood2010 said:
007BondAgent said:
JayWood2010 said:
007BondAgent said:
JayWood2010 said:
CGI-Quality said:
JayWood2010 said:
CGI-Quality said:
RazorDragon said:
They won't. I see no hype over GoW: A and Gears: J and, most importantly, no ads.

No hype? Um, there's hype all over the place for Ascension, especially since the demo/beta. Gears hype is fairly low, by comparison.


TV ads. Not internet. Gears:J is getting ads as well across the internet and XBL.  Internet hype vs real world hype is both very different, and I see little hype compared to there predecessors.

Neither has a predecessor. Second, I've seen a commercial for both Gears J and God of War: Ascension, though the latter was promotional and not an actual ad. On the net, yes, but unlike the past, net hype makes a difference in 2013.

Now looking at the pre-order numbers, both are behind the last titles that released, Gears especially, but that can be attributed more to each title's status, not lack of "hype".


-_-  You knew very well on what i meant by predecessors.

No internet hype is very small compared to the real world.  Yes it helps but people who visit forums and gaming websites are in a big minority.  It helps getting ads on youtube though since that is basically a form of telivision and your every day person will visit.

And yes Gears Judgement is way behind Gears 3 but relatively close to God of War Ascension and  I wouldn't doubt it if Gears Judgement actually will have a higher preorder rate than God of War Asencion by its final week.

2
God of War: Ascension (PS3)
Sony Computer Entertainment, Action
3 20,705 249,750
8
Gears of War: Judgment (X360)
Microsoft Game Studios, Shooter
4 53,796 172,132

Notice the weekly change


those gears pre orders are a joke, no matter what way you look at it


I think you have missed my point.  Reread through some of the things i said.  They are both going to fall short of there predecessors is my point. And if you consider Gears Judement not to be hyped then GoWA isnt really hyped either.


of course they will both fall short, but the difference beteen Gears 3 and Judgment is just huge, much much much bigger then gow3 to Ascension


I have been looking for the graph comparisons.  Can you link them to me?

And no it isnt as big as the difference between gears J and Gears 3.  Gears J just doesnt have any hype but Gears 3 had over 1m preorders if im correct.  I cant remember how much GoWIII had but didnt it have like 600k preorders?  

 

1 God of War III PS3 1 61,495 486,992

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/7443/americas-preorders-chart-13th-mar-2010/

God of war 3 had 486k on it's final week

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/87949/americas-preorders-chart-17-september-2011-gears-of-war-3/

while gears 3 had just under 2 million

486,992


RazorDragon said:
They won't. I see no hype over GoW: A and Gears: J and, most importantly, no ads.


I'm not so sure about that. I've been seeing the same Super Bowl ads for the game on TV - just last night actually. And it's not a one off either since there seems to be consistency.

 

I can't speak for Gears, but I have not seen anything thus far

 

EDIT

I just read some more of the backlog where you mentioned a lack of internet ads.



 

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Wow just have seen how good the PS3 Version sold compared to the 360 version.
Yeah you definitely need to go Multiplat*g*(with Japanese Games)

God of War could do it.
Kinda impressed Gears preorders aren't at the usual 1245234 Million like one of the big 3 360 Franchises is used to..not even in the USA.People are either bored of the franchise or don't like the fact its a spinoff from an other developer without marcus and dom as heroes.
Gears will do it too - Gamestop buyers.



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Skip to the end if you just want to see my estimates, read if you want to see how I got to those figures.


It's funny, of all the big games releasing this year God of War: Ascension actually has the most real-world hype at the moment (only Grand Theft Auto 5 comes close) http://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=Grand%20Theft%20Auto%2C%20God%20of%20War%2C%20Gears%20of%20War%2C%20Bioshock%2C%20The%20Last%20of%20Us&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q . You see, gamers on forums only account for an insignificant minority of all gamers.

Also look how many views (5,660,000) this trailer got in such a short amount of time http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aDhfTGkLTg&list=FLIm0UIut49KoIest7o9WWqw&index=12  And that same trailer is apparently being aired on TV in the US.

God of War III sold 1.1 million copies in the US alone in less than 3 weeks according to NPD (undertracked by 150k on Vgchartz). That's about 750k in the US first week, God of War: Ascension should sell around that figure, so going with my lowest estimate it'll do 650k FW in the US.

God of War III was confirmed to be heavily undertracked in Europe, it shipped almost 2 million copies as of May 31st 2012, yet only sold 1.1 million? Nonsense, there's no way the difference between sell-in and sell-through would be that high over 2 years since release. Since Vgchartz clearly had God of War III heavily undertracked It's accurate to assume it actually sold around 350-400k first week in Europe, my lowest estimate for God of War: Ascension is that it'll do 350k FW in Europe.

God of War III was confirmed to be heavily undertracked in Japan, it shipped 420k in Japan as of the 31st May 2012, according to Vgchartz it only sold 120k in Japan lifetime and stopped being sold early 2011 which is obviously nonsense, there's no way the difference between sell-in and sell-through and if the game wasn't being sold in Japan after reaching 120k then why would Sony ship and addition 300k to stores there? God of War III sold about 50k FW in Japan, I think God of War: Ascension will do more at about 75k FW.

My lowest estimation for God of War: Ascension is 650k US, 350k Europe and 75k Japan for a total of 1.08 million first week. I think it'll sell between 1.08-1.25 million first week. It will come quite close to God of War III and will have stronger legs thanks to multiplayer and it'll have more bundling.

 

Gears of War: Judgment isn't strong in Japan at all and sells considerably less in Europe than it does in the US where it's doing poorly. It's quite obvious that Gears of War: Judgment will do nowhere near as well as Gears of War 3 or even Gears of War 2.  It however should do comfortably better than the first Gears of War.

My lowest estimates for Gears of War: Judgment's first week are:  600k US, 275k Europe and 30k Japan for a total of 905k first week. I think it'll sell between 905k - 1.00 million first week.

 

In terms of first week sales, my rough estimates are:

1st. God of War: Ascension at 1,165,000.

2nd. Gears of War: Judgment at 952,500.

3rd. MGR:R at 790,000 (Vgchartz).



Yes.

They both will



CGI-Quality said:

Makes you wonder if they aren't being tracked properly, or if people really just aren't that interested (the latter is hard to believe, given how much better Gears 3 did).


I think it is just that. I think most of the people who played the trilogy would have liked it to be closed and finished. The way Gears of war 3 ended was a great way to close the three games (Not superb, but they really did create an original story, given how poor could be the story in the two previous entries); and yet the same year (was it the same year?) they announced another Gears of War that clearly people did not want. Perhaps the latest marketing has been changing people's mind, but hey. At least I did not ask for another Gears, and almost every friend of mine who likes the games agree with it.



God of war 3 first week was 1.3 million if i remember it correctly.So yes God of War Ascension will have a better first week and better legs. And the preorders mean simply nothing as the preorder numbers are always wrong the last months.



Yeah, I think both will sell more in their first week than MGR:R sold in its first week.



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