Skip to the end if you just want to see my estimates, read if you want to see how I got to those figures.
It's funny, of all the big games releasing this year God of War: Ascension actually has the most real-world hype at the moment (only Grand Theft Auto 5 comes close) http://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=Grand%20Theft%20Auto%2C%20God%20of%20War%2C%20Gears%20of%20War%2C%20Bioshock%2C%20The%20Last%20of%20Us&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q . You see, gamers on forums only account for an insignificant minority of all gamers.
Also look how many views (5,660,000) this trailer got in such a short amount of time http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aDhfTGkLTg&list=FLIm0UIut49KoIest7o9WWqw&index=12 And that same trailer is apparently being aired on TV in the US.
God of War III sold 1.1 million copies in the US alone in less than 3 weeks according to NPD (undertracked by 150k on Vgchartz). That's about 750k in the US first week, God of War: Ascension should sell around that figure, so going with my lowest estimate it'll do 650k FW in the US.
God of War III was confirmed to be heavily undertracked in Europe, it shipped almost 2 million copies as of May 31st 2012, yet only sold 1.1 million? Nonsense, there's no way the difference between sell-in and sell-through would be that high over 2 years since release. Since Vgchartz clearly had God of War III heavily undertracked It's accurate to assume it actually sold around 350-400k first week in Europe, my lowest estimate for God of War: Ascension is that it'll do 350k FW in Europe.
God of War III was confirmed to be heavily undertracked in Japan, it shipped 420k in Japan as of the 31st May 2012, according to Vgchartz it only sold 120k in Japan lifetime and stopped being sold early 2011 which is obviously nonsense, there's no way the difference between sell-in and sell-through and if the game wasn't being sold in Japan after reaching 120k then why would Sony ship and addition 300k to stores there? God of War III sold about 50k FW in Japan, I think God of War: Ascension will do more at about 75k FW.
My lowest estimation for God of War: Ascension is 650k US, 350k Europe and 75k Japan for a total of 1.08 million first week. I think it'll sell between 1.08-1.25 million first week. It will come quite close to God of War III and will have stronger legs thanks to multiplayer and it'll have more bundling.
Gears of War: Judgment isn't strong in Japan at all and sells considerably less in Europe than it does in the US where it's doing poorly. It's quite obvious that Gears of War: Judgment will do nowhere near as well as Gears of War 3 or even Gears of War 2. It however should do comfortably better than the first Gears of War.
My lowest estimates for Gears of War: Judgment's first week are: 600k US, 275k Europe and 30k Japan for a total of 905k first week. I think it'll sell between 905k - 1.00 million first week.
In terms of first week sales, my rough estimates are:
1st. God of War: Ascension at 1,165,000.
2nd. Gears of War: Judgment at 952,500.
3rd. MGR:R at 790,000 (Vgchartz).
