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Forums - Sony Discussion - Will PS3 top 100 million?

Loud_Hot_White_Box on 23 April 2008
Final-Fan said:
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
Final-Fan said:
*bleu-ocelot* said:
No i meant that because of cheaper Blu-Ray production cost,the PS4 will be in a better position than the PS3 was out the gate.
In that case, in terms of cost and ease of production, I agree completely.

But on the other hand, the PS4 won't be coming off of the massive success of the PS2. The PS3 will probably be in a strong 2nd position, but it will be far behind the leader, and far, FAR from the crushing dominance of the PS2. It's impossible to say at this point exactly what impact that will have on the level of support the PS4 will have out of the gate, but it will not have the same level of developer confidence and support that the PS3 initially had.
PS4 will have more developer confidence and support, not less, if its architecture is based an evolution of the Cell processor, as it likely will be. (E.G. 64 SPUs and 8 dual-thread PPUs running at 5Ghz -- IBM has already run Cells at 6ghz +). Devs will come out of the gate rocking the hardware because they already know it from its infant state -- in PS3. This, I think, has always been the plan.

Dev confidence in support don't depend as much on whether the previous console sold 75 or 150 million units so much as it depends on the architecture: is it PC-like, or is it like another console that the devs already know how to work with (360 and Wii had those advantages, respectively, over the PS3 this gen, but next gen if PS4 still uses Cell(s) -- vastly improved though they will be -- the advantage is gone).
Oh, that explains the massive launch support for the Xbox -- basically a budget PC in a Halloween costume. And the Wii obviously had a landslide of developer support in its early days due to being an evolution of the Gamecube architecture.

Apologies for the sarcasm, but that is just completely counterfactual. It is true that a Cell-based PS4 will be much easier to develop for than the PS3 was at first, since they will have grown more used to what was literally an all-new type of processor. But that doesn't mean that they'll necessarily want to.

Perhaps you misunderstood me when I spoke of "developer confidence and support". In the months -- indeed, years -- before the new systems launched, it was Sony's system that got all the attention. It was the golden boy, the heir to the throne. Only the yearlong head start of the 360 gave it the software advantage it now enjoys. Only Nintendo's amazing marathon effort has given the Wii its superior load of stellar titles -- as someone pointed out today (yesterday?) on a thread I can't be bothered to identify right now, the PS3 actually has more "pretty good" games, despite the Wii absolutely crushing the PS3 ever since launch -- ever since E3 2006, really.

The PS4 will not have that advantage. The Wii is king, and the PS4 is certainly not going to be its prince.

The XBox launch had disinguishing features: MS as a completely untried player, and a larger PS2 lead than 360 had over PS3, right?

My edited post said "initial dev support", meaning just that devs can get good games out of the gate faster if the architecture is a familiar one.  True.   Will they want to?  That question depends on 1, most importantly, whether the architecture is familiar, because then they can bring games out cost-effectively for a new system with a small install base, and 2, whether the system/brand is a monster with legs.  Playstation is.  Xbox wasn't, but after 360 it might be.  Wii wasn't at launch, but is now and no one will doubt its successor.  It was the fact that Xbox 1 and Wii brands were unknown that limited initial 3rd party development.  Familiar architecture would have helped them even more initially if the devs had faith in them.  Enter PS4.

Don't throw Nintendo success at me like it hurts me.  I own Nintendo stock.  Bring on the shovelware.  $$$.



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SlorgNet on 23 April 2008

The PS3 will *smoke* the 100 million mark. It may hit 135 or 140 million, before it's done.

Here's why: half of all console sales occur during peak season, from October-December. Half are non-peak.

Weekly PS3 sales during non-peak, 2007: 94,569.
Weekly PS3 sales during peak, 2007: 301,588.

Weekly PS3 sales during non-peak, 2008 to date: 191,611.

Notice the trend? That's a doubling of sales, during the slowest part of the year. Without a price cut, sales would probably hit 380,000/week this holiday (due to more games out, BluRay is the new standard, more HDTVs) and Sony would sell 12.4 million units for 2008.

But Sony *will* chop the price to $299/299EUR, which isn't far off from the Wii's current price tag. Peak sales could easily hit 450K/week, or higher. We're talking 14 million in annual sales at a minimum, possibly as high as 16 million.

2009: $199/199EUR PS3 = annual sales of 22 to 25 million.



Final-Fan on 23 April 2008
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
Final-Fan said:
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
Final-Fan said:
*bleu-ocelot* said:
No i meant that because of cheaper Blu-Ray production cost,the PS4 will be in a better position than the PS3 was out the gate.
In that case, in terms of cost and ease of production, I agree completely.

But on the other hand, the PS4 won't be coming off of the massive success of the PS2. The PS3 will probably be in a strong 2nd position, but it will be far behind the leader, and far, FAR from the crushing dominance of the PS2. It's impossible to say at this point exactly what impact that will have on the level of support the PS4 will have out of the gate, but it will not have the same level of developer confidence and support that the PS3 initially had.
PS4 will have more developer confidence and support, not less, if its architecture is based an evolution of the Cell processor, as it likely will be. (E.G. 64 SPUs and 8 dual-thread PPUs running at 5Ghz -- IBM has already run Cells at 6ghz +). Devs will come out of the gate rocking the hardware because they already know it from its infant state -- in PS3. This, I think, has always been the plan.

Dev confidence in support don't depend as much on whether the previous console sold 75 or 150 million units so much as it depends on the architecture: is it PC-like, or is it like another console that the devs already know how to work with (360 and Wii had those advantages, respectively, over the PS3 this gen, but next gen if PS4 still uses Cell(s) -- vastly improved though they will be -- the advantage is gone).
Oh, that explains the massive launch support for the Xbox -- basically a budget PC in a Halloween costume. And the Wii obviously had a landslide of developer support in its early days due to being an evolution of the Gamecube architecture.

Apologies for the sarcasm, but that is just completely counterfactual. It is true that a Cell-based PS4 will be much easier to develop for than the PS3 was at first, since they will have grown more used to what was literally an all-new type of processor. But that doesn't mean that they'll necessarily want to.

Perhaps you misunderstood me when I spoke of "developer confidence and support". In the months -- indeed, years -- before the new systems launched, it was Sony's system that got all the attention. It was the golden boy, the heir to the throne. Only the yearlong head start of the 360 gave it the software advantage it now enjoys. Only Nintendo's amazing marathon effort has given the Wii its superior load of stellar titles -- as someone pointed out today (yesterday?) on a thread I can't be bothered to identify right now, the PS3 actually has more "pretty good" games, despite the Wii absolutely crushing the PS3 ever since launch -- ever since E3 2006, really.

The PS4 will not have that advantage. The Wii is king, and the PS4 is certainly not going to be its prince.
The XBox launch had disinguishing features: MS as a completely untried player, and a larger PS2 lead than 360 had over PS3, right?

My edited post said "initial dev support", meaning just that devs can get good games out of the gate faster if the architecture is a familiar one. True. Will they want to? That question depends on 1, most importantly, whether the architecture is familiar, because then they can bring games out cost-effectively for a new system with a small install base, and 2, whether the system/brand is a monster with legs. Playstation is. Xbox wasn't, but after 360 it might be. Wii wasn't at launch, but is now and no one will doubt its successor. It was the fact that Xbox 1 and Wii brands were unknown that limited initial 3rd party development. Familiar architecture would have helped them even more initially if the devs had faith in them. Enter PS4.

Don't throw Nintendo success at me like it hurts me. I own Nintendo stock. Bring on the shovelware. $$$.
You're saying that all three consoles will probably have good support, or if not all three then certainly Nintendo's and Sony's.  I agree with that.

But it will not be on the level of the PS3's initial support, which was derived from the monster success and utter domination of the PS2, which the PS3 was considered heir to.  The PS4 will not be the inheritor of such a legacy.  The next Nintendo console will probably not even be the inheritor of such a legacy -- even if it flies way past the PS2's lifetime numbers (I think it will), its competition will have done WAAAY better than the PS2's competitors. 

So yes, of course developers will want to support the PS4.  But they very likely won't want to as much as they initially did the PS3.  And they very likely won't want to as much as they want to support the next Nintendo console. 

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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Final-Fan on 23 April 2008
SlorgNet said:
The PS3 will *smoke* the 100 million mark. It may hit 135 or 140 million, before it's done.

Here's why: half of all console sales occur during peak season, from October-December. Half are non-peak.

Weekly PS3 sales during non-peak, 2007: 94,569.
Weekly PS3 sales during peak, 2007: 301,588.

Weekly PS3 sales during non-peak, 2008 to date: 191,611.

Notice the trend? That's a doubling of sales, during the slowest part of the year. Without a price cut, sales would probably hit 380,000/week this holiday (due to more games out, BluRay is the new standard, more HDTVs) and Sony would sell 12.4 million units for 2008.

But Sony *will* chop the price to $299/299EUR, which isn't far off from the Wii's current price tag. Peak sales could easily hit 450K/week, or higher. We're talking 14 million in annual sales at a minimum, possibly as high as 16 million.

2009: $199/199EUR PS3 = annual sales of 22 to 25 million.
I'm surprised SDF hasn't used that one.    You should give it to them. 

Wow, this might be the most extreme fanboy prediction I've seen ever.  Well, that or 500 million lifetime sales for Wii.  But probably this. 

*Note to self:  Add this prediction to the List.*

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

starcraft on 23 April 2008

Why did this thread make it past one reply?

Someone asked a simple question, to which the answer cannot possibly be anything other than no (unless Sony literally sacrificed the company in order to deliver a $200 price drop tomorrow. Though even then, Nintendo could easily match their price, and Microsoft could do it without losing nearly as much money, so I still don't think the PS3 would get past 80 million).

So, N-O spells NO!



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

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Loud_Hot_White_Box on 23 April 2008
Final-Fan said:
 
You're saying that all three consoles will probably have good support, or if not all three then certainly Nintendo's and Sony's. I agree with that.

But it will not be on the level of the PS3's initial support, which was derived from the monster success and utter domination of the PS2, which the PS3 was considered heir to. The PS4 will not be the inheritor of such a legacy. The next Nintendo console will probably not even be the inheritor of such a legacy -- even if it flies way past the PS2's lifetime numbers (I think it will), its competition will have done WAAAY better than the PS2's competitors.

So yes, of course developers will want to support the PS4. But they very likely won't want to as much as they initially did the PS3. And they very likely won't want to as much as they want to support the next Nintendo console.

The bolded claim is not true and doesn't follow from the reasoning you've offered.

There will be more than 17 PS4 launch games if PS4 uses Cell-related architecture.  PS4 will have more dev support because the architecture will be easier to work with, earlier.  Known architecture, and the economy of putting a game out at a reasonable cost, matter more than the fact that PS3 won't have sold as many units (at time of PS4 launch) as PS2 had when PS3 launched.  Just stating nebulous claims like "PS3 has a lesser legacy than PS2" do not change the reality that devs will be able to switch to making PS4 games more easily than they switched to PS3.  PS3's legacy will be sufficiently massive to make devs support the new Playstation.

PS2 success actually worked against PS3 game development, initially, contrary to your claims, because companies had a greater incentive to just make PS2 games and make money on that huge install base...why bother to jump into early PS3 development when it's so difficult to pull off given the unknowns of Cell?  PS4, if based on Cell, won't have that problem.  Dev support will be stronger, earlier, for PS4 than for PS3.



Final-Fan on 23 April 2008
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
Final-Fan said:
 
You're saying that all three consoles will probably have good support, or if not all three then certainly Nintendo's and Sony's.  I agree with that.

But it will not be on the level of the PS3's initial support, which was derived from the monster success and utter domination of the PS2, which the PS3 was considered heir to.  The PS4 will not be the inheritor of such a legacy.  The next Nintendo console will probably not even be the inheritor of such a legacy -- even if it flies way past the PS2's lifetime numbers (I think it will), its competition will have done WAAAY better than the PS2's competitors.

So yes, of course developers will want to support the PS4.  But they very likely won't want to as much as they initially did the PS3.  And they very likely won't want to as much as they want to support the next Nintendo console.
The bolded claim is not true and doesn't follow from the reasoning you've offered.

There will be more than 17 PS4 launch games if PS4 uses Cell-related architecture. PS4 will have more dev support because the architecture will be easier to work with, earlier. Known architecture, and the economy of putting a game out at a reasonable cost, matter more than the fact that PS3 won't have sold as many units (at time of PS4 launch) as PS2 had when PS3 launched. Just stating nebulous claims like "PS3 has a lesser legacy than PS2" do not change the reality that devs will be able to switch to making PS4 games more easily than they switched to PS3. PS3's legacy will be sufficiently massive to make devs support the new Playstation.

PS2 success actually worked against PS3 game development, initially, contrary to your claims, because companies had a greater incentive to just make PS2 games and make money on that huge install base...why bother to jump into early PS3 development when it's so difficult to pull off given the unknowns of Cell? PS4, if based on Cell, won't have that problem. Dev support will be stronger, earlier, for PS4 than for PS3.
I want to alter my position a bit; I was tired last night and was just slightly off kilter.  I think that the things I'm saying more or less cancel out the things you're saying.  The PS4 will therefore not have significantly more support than the PS3 initially did.  Maybe less (the greater probability IMO), maybe a bit more, but not drastically more.  (Nor drastically less; Sony is looking to get strong second place which is more than enough for at least somewhat decent support at launch.)  The developers had more incentives and more disincentives regarding the PS3 than they will have about the PS4.  (Presumption of Sony as winner, etc. vs. comparatively harder development due to Cell and the 360's head start, etc.)  But there will be fewer big projects exclusively destined for PS4 than there had been for PS3 until its fortues turned south and the Wii's soared.

Your reasoning regarding the PS2 makes little sense to me since the Wii will be just as healthy at PS4 launch as the PS2 was at PS3 launch, maybe more.  Whatever thunder the PS2 stole from the PS3, the Wii will steal from the PS4 -- with the possible exception of Sony dropping PS3 faster than it dropped PS2 and therefore focusing more tightly on PS4.  True, the Cell will (presumably) be there and that will be much more familiar, but I think that it's not lazy developers that matter so much as risk-averse publishers.  There may be more launch titles, but I'm thinking more along the lines of the number of big projects that were destined for the PS3 because it had been assumed that it was going to dominate.  The 360 managed to steal some of those away but they were conceived as PS3 games and we all know why.  Plus there's the possibility that the developers the Wii attracts due to its success may tend to lean toward Nintendo for the next console race.

Both of us are simply making educated guesses and informed opinions.  "Nebulous claims"?  Well, it's true that I'm not pinning myself down to a quantitative value such as "PS3's legacy will be XX% weaker than PS2's, causing two and a half fewer exclusives at PS4 launch", but really, although it's obvious that there will be SOME effect, we're far too far away from that date, and so much can happen, that amateurs such as ourselves are restricted to pretty broad brushstrokes for any reasonable predictions.  PS3 at 48m would be a very different springboard for the PS4 than PS3 at 72m.  It's all up in the air.

Wii being super-easy to develop for in light of Gamecube experience didn't help its launch window.  PS4 certainly won't be that bad, but Cell familiarity is not a cure-all.

P.S.  I'm not denying that many of your points have merit.  I may think you're overestimating their effect but you make good points.  However, the other side of things must be considered.

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Bursche on 23 April 2008

The answer is NO. It wont. I doubt the Wii will make it to 100.



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CrazzyMan on 23 April 2008

People! What are you doing here?!
You can`t just know how things will go on, till BIG games will be released.

I mean, how many of you were expecting GT5P to pass 1 mln. in Europe only? And that is just a prologue.

PS3 has good and bright future at 299$ with MGS4, FFXIII, KZ2, LBP and etc.

If you expect, that most ps2 users are not willing to get ps3 at 299$ bundled with FFXIII or GT5, then you are really poor. =)
Anyway time will show, and pretty soon with GTA4 and MGS4. ;)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Final-Fan on 23 April 2008

Hey, Crazzy, I'm afraid your thread has taken on a bit of a life of its own.  Don't worry, I'm sure it'll quiet down before it's time for you to revive it.  

In the meantime, I'd like to give you a tiny little language lesson, if you don't mind.  

"and etc." is redundant, because "etc." is short for the Latin phrase "et cetera", "et" meaning "and" -- so "and etc." would be "and and cetera".  A, B, C, D, etc. is correct. 

Tangent:  "Et" is also where we get the "&" (ampersand) from.  "Et" literally mutated in people's handwriting until it looked like that. 


I hope you don't mind all this.  I know English isn't your native tongue, but you'll never know you're wrong unless someone tells you, right?  <i>I</i> wouldn't want to be making mistakes if I could help it. 



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom!