Will PS3 top 100 million?

[Final-Fan]

Loud_Hot_White_Box said:

Final-Fan said:

 

You're saying that all three consoles will probably have good support, or if not all three then certainly Nintendo's and Sony's.  I agree with that.

But it will not be on the level of the PS3's initial support, which was derived from the monster success and utter domination of the PS2, which the PS3 was considered heir to.  The PS4 will not be the inheritor of such a legacy.  The next Nintendo console will probably not even be the inheritor of such a legacy -- even if it flies way past the PS2's lifetime numbers (I think it will), its competition will have done WAAAY better than the PS2's competitors.

So yes, of course developers will want to support the PS4.  But they very likely won't want to as much as they initially did the PS3.  And they very likely won't want to as much as they want to support the next Nintendo console.

The bolded claim is not true and doesn't follow from the reasoning you've offered.

There will be more than 17 PS4 launch games if PS4 uses Cell-related architecture. PS4 will have more dev support because the architecture will be easier to work with, earlier. Known architecture, and the economy of putting a game out at a reasonable cost, matter more than the fact that PS3 won't have sold as many units (at time of PS4 launch) as PS2 had when PS3 launched. Just stating nebulous claims like "PS3 has a lesser legacy than PS2" do not change the reality that devs will be able to switch to making PS4 games more easily than they switched to PS3. PS3's legacy will be sufficiently massive to make devs support the new Playstation.

PS2 success actually worked against PS3 game development, initially, contrary to your claims, because companies had a greater incentive to just make PS2 games and make money on that huge install base...why bother to jump into early PS3 development when it's so difficult to pull off given the unknowns of Cell? PS4, if based on Cell, won't have that problem. Dev support will be stronger, earlier, for PS4 than for PS3.

I want to alter my position a bit; I was tired last night and was just slightly off kilter.  I think that the things I'm saying more or less cancel out the things you're saying.  The PS4 will therefore not have significantly more support than the PS3 initially did.  Maybe less (the greater probability IMO), maybe a bit more, but not drastically more.  (Nor drastically less; Sony is looking to get strong second place which is more than enough for at least somewhat decent support at launch.)  The developers had more incentives and more disincentives regarding the PS3 than they will have about the PS4.  (Presumption of Sony as winner, etc. vs. comparatively harder development due to Cell and the 360's head start, etc.)  But there will be fewer big projects exclusively destined for PS4 than there had been for PS3 until its fortues turned south and the Wii's soared.

Your reasoning regarding the PS2 makes little sense to me since the Wii will be just as healthy at PS4 launch as the PS2 was at PS3 launch, maybe more.  Whatever thunder the PS2 stole from the PS3, the Wii will steal from the PS4 -- with the possible exception of Sony dropping PS3 faster than it dropped PS2 and therefore focusing more tightly on PS4.  True, the Cell will (presumably) be there and that will be much more familiar, but I think that it's not lazy developers that matter so much as risk-averse publishers.  There may be more launch titles, but I'm thinking more along the lines of the number of big projects that were destined for the PS3 because it had been assumed that it was going to dominate.  The 360 managed to steal some of those away but they were conceived as PS3 games and we all know why.  Plus there's the possibility that the developers the Wii attracts due to its success may tend to lean toward Nintendo for the next console race.

Both of us are simply making educated guesses and informed opinions.  "Nebulous claims"?  Well, it's true that I'm not pinning myself down to a quantitative value such as "PS3's legacy will be XX% weaker than PS2's, causing two and a half fewer exclusives at PS4 launch", but really, although it's obvious that there will be SOME effect, we're far too far away from that date, and so much can happen, that amateurs such as ourselves are restricted to pretty broad brushstrokes for any reasonable predictions.  PS3 at 48m would be a very different springboard for the PS4 than PS3 at 72m.  It's all up in the air.

Wii being super-easy to develop for in light of Gamecube experience didn't help its launch window.  PS4 certainly won't be that bad, but Cell familiarity is not a cure-all.

P.S.  I'm not denying that many of your points have merit.  I may think you're overestimating their effect but you make good points.  However, the other side of things must be considered.