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Final-Fan said:
 
You're saying that all three consoles will probably have good support, or if not all three then certainly Nintendo's and Sony's. I agree with that.

But it will not be on the level of the PS3's initial support, which was derived from the monster success and utter domination of the PS2, which the PS3 was considered heir to. The PS4 will not be the inheritor of such a legacy. The next Nintendo console will probably not even be the inheritor of such a legacy -- even if it flies way past the PS2's lifetime numbers (I think it will), its competition will have done WAAAY better than the PS2's competitors.

So yes, of course developers will want to support the PS4. But they very likely won't want to as much as they initially did the PS3. And they very likely won't want to as much as they want to support the next Nintendo console.

The bolded claim is not true and doesn't follow from the reasoning you've offered.

There will be more than 17 PS4 launch games if PS4 uses Cell-related architecture.  PS4 will have more dev support because the architecture will be easier to work with, earlier.  Known architecture, and the economy of putting a game out at a reasonable cost, matter more than the fact that PS3 won't have sold as many units (at time of PS4 launch) as PS2 had when PS3 launched.  Just stating nebulous claims like "PS3 has a lesser legacy than PS2" do not change the reality that devs will be able to switch to making PS4 games more easily than they switched to PS3.  PS3's legacy will be sufficiently massive to make devs support the new Playstation.

PS2 success actually worked against PS3 game development, initially, contrary to your claims, because companies had a greater incentive to just make PS2 games and make money on that huge install base...why bother to jump into early PS3 development when it's so difficult to pull off given the unknowns of Cell?  PS4, if based on Cell, won't have that problem.  Dev support will be stronger, earlier, for PS4 than for PS3.