There would have to be a massive shift in market realities for this to happen. What I mean by that is that the data stronly imply that mobile gaming is largely unprofitable as a business for the vast majority of companies. The median return on your iOS game is under $3k, for example, and the bulk of the sales go to the few games that get highlighted by the hosting service. And, of course, the mobile market is currently being conditioned to believe that most games should be only $1. Good luck building a thriving development studio in that environment.

At the moment, everything I see indicates that mobile gaming is basically a Gold Rush, except that 99% of the ore mined is actually pyrite.

If mobile gaming ever tries to offer full console experiences, it will suffer severe consequences, just like handhelds don't do well when they try to offer the console experience.

How about some other verifiable numbers, i.e. the growth of the game industry in 2010, 2011, and 2012? Do those agree with the thesis as well, or does an explosion earlier this generation take the bulk of the responsibility?

Why is it so hard for people to understand that the gaming industry will always be around regardless of PC's, tablets, etc.

My post is in response ONLY to original posters poll about consoles.. I never said anything about growth in other segments.. but the assumed concensus ( of the OP and some writers ) is the market share for consoles has shrunk.  The facts I presented are there are more home consoles existing in the world today then last generation.. Whether it occurred for whatever reason - It did occur - and EVEN in a horrible world economy.  Fact is the world economy was much stronger a decade ago..

Aside from IGNORING that there really are more consoles out there now.. I've seen too many articles writing about the "demise" of home consoles.  Which is totally absurd.  Yes, it could happen.. but its going to be a long time.  Most of us will not play on our mobile devices when we can play on a bigger screen.

Its safe to assume the console market will likely grow slower ( but still grow ) because everyone now has the need for a mobile phone.. its common sense to see why mobile gaming is growing quicker right now..  At some point even that will taper off.. Right now to alot of older folks who never played consoles and for the FIRST time have a smart phone.. some of those games are easier and less challenging when it comes to coordination..

There will be a need for some type of home gaming console... at least for a long time..

If the console market had sold 10 million less.. or even broke EVEN.. we could all think on it more.. but this GEN is still selling.. and so far its outsold last gen by 30 millon units.. at 200  dollars a console you're talking BILLIONS MORE in sales..

( EDITED )

One last thing - many of the writers talking about the consoles market share .. seem to be looking at Sony's financial troubles.. TO ME this is less about console market share then Sony's bad choices.. It's lost money on the PS3 mainly because they sold so many at HUNDREDS less then what it cost to make a PS3 those first 2 years..  I know the PS3 division hasn't done well compared to last gen.. but Sony beleived they could do no wrong and now the PLAYSTATION name isn't what it was a decade ago when it was a powerhouse.   They mention how poorly the new Sony handheld is performing.. yet the Nintendo hanheld is selling great..

While you make some good points, you also have to keep in mind that people still want good home experiences. Whether that be through gaming or movies. The advantage consoles have is that they can offer it all at a much higher than tablets. Tablets are used for on the go stuff, but consoles are used right in your house. Sony and MS might have to think more strategically in their pricing, but ultimately they have an advantage that tablets won't be able to match anytime soon. It's why games like Halo and Call of Duty still release to record profits, why internet connections are revolutionizing what a home console can be, and why the industry can still make tons of cash. For nintendo, the Wii U isn't the first time a console hasn't outsold it's predecessor. Wii did outstanding numbers and that's a hard act to follow. Just like the Gamecube didn't do so hot, but long term, Nintendo will still have the advantage of selling games at a premium price, plus the rise of digital gaming on consoles has shown they help add to a companies profits. Minecraft has been profitable everywhere it's been, and that's including Xbox Live Arcade. As long as tablets offer an inferior home experience, consoles will have a wide and profitable market.  We may see some changes to how console business is done, but over all, it'll be there. Much longer than armchair analysts will probably trick themselves into believing. 

You're comparing the sixth to the seventh generation.  No one is disputing that the gaming market has grown every gen since NES.   Last gen the growth is mainly attributed to DS and Wii.

We the article writer and others (myself included) is saying it that due to tablets and Android consoles etc., that the eighth generation (WiiU, 720, PS4) will shrink - and we're estimating about 30%.

Rol is wise to point out that Nintendo's missteps alone will provide most of that shrinkage as well as Sony's with Vita.

At this point either Sony or MS would have to come out with something more mass market popular than Wii to have a hope of even coming close to this gen's numbers.   That's unlikely to say the least.  

The tablet argument is that casuals and increasingly 'semi-core'  are increasingly using tablets as their gaming device of choice.   This isn't conjecture, it's based on stats.   If Sony/MS don't have some sort of compelling experience that tablets can't match (and apparently lousy controls isn't too much of a hinderence as it's not stopping the trend now) we can only assume this trend will continue and their base will decrease as well.

If Sony and MS really do make their systems full-on multi-media devices, to the point where you'd buy one even if you're not a gamer (comparible to how non-gamers buy tablets but 66% of tablet use is games) and make no mistake this IS where they are headed for this very reason - then the concept of a dedicated gaming console is in fact dying.   We'll have too see how far down this path Sony/MS goes when they announce their new systems.  I suspect Sony more than Nintendo and MS full bore ahead down that road.   

I'm not suggesting there will be no such thing as playing a game on your TV.  That will stay.  But the question is, if you can do that off any device (say your Galaxy V or iPhone 7 connecting to your TV with bluetooth dual analog support) will anyone still buy a PS4? (Aside from exclusives as there will be plenty of 3rd party games on these devices)  Is PS5 then a Sony Ericcson phone?  Or merely an app on any phone/tablet?

The counter argument is that the monetization structure on mobile is unsubstainable.   A few companies make obscene amounts and most everyone else has scraps.   I also agree with this.   I doubt the free/.99 cent game will continue indefinitely - well, it will, cause there are plenty of simple games that can make money that way, but for more comprehensive games this structure fails and will ultimately give way to something inbetween that and the $70 games we have now on consoles.     This could go anywhere from $15-30 games to some kind of subscription service for all games.  Too early too tell. 

In general the amount of people playing games will increase over the seventh gen, but that includes consoles+tablets and other devices.  Dedicated consoles use will shrink.

Theres no way the console segment will shrink 15%... People who bought consoles will buy another next gen...and so will a few more million kids old enough to own their first console... 

Also there is talk China will end a video console ban thats been in place since 2000..... That would cause a huge explosion in the console market - As china has more people then anyone!

If mobile game revenue was truly $8b last year, where are all the massive, S&P listed mobile game publishers? And where is the implied $4-6b spent on mobile game R&D this year going?

Not going to happen, the tablet trend will fizzle out before then. I've owned an Ipad for awhile. Realized I was better off spending that money on a lap top. PC's didn't kill consoles and neither will tablets or any other handheld devices.

I'm actually predicting the rise of E sports in the next 10 years. It will make the NFL look like little league. When this happens nothing is going to stop console gaming.