Gamerace said:
You're comparing the sixth to the seventh generation. No one is disputing that the gaming market has grown every gen since NES. Last gen the growth is mainly attributed to DS and Wii. We the article writer and others (myself included) is saying it that due to tablets and Android consoles etc., that the eighth generation (WiiU, 720, PS4) will shrink - and we're estimating about 30%. Rol is wise to point out that Nintendo's missteps alone will provide most of that shrinkage as well as Sony's with Vita. At this point either Sony or MS would have to come out with something more mass market popular than Wii to have a hope of even coming close to this gen's numbers. That's unlikely to say the least. The tablet argument is that casuals and increasingly 'semi-core' are increasingly using tablets as their gaming device of choice. This isn't conjecture, it's based on stats. If Sony/MS don't have some sort of compelling experience that tablets can't match (and apparently lousy controls isn't too much of a hinderence as it's not stopping the trend now) we can only assume this trend will continue and their base will decrease as well. If Sony and MS really do make their systems full-on multi-media devices, to the point where you'd buy one even if you're not a gamer (comparible to how non-gamers buy tablets but 66% of tablet use is games) and make no mistake this IS where they are headed for this very reason - then the concept of a dedicated gaming console is in fact dying. We'll have too see how far down this path Sony/MS goes when they announce their new systems. I suspect Sony more than Nintendo and MS full bore ahead down that road. I'm not suggesting there will be no such thing as playing a game on your TV. That will stay. But the question is, if you can do that off any device (say your Galaxy V or iPhone 7 connecting to your TV with bluetooth dual analog support) will anyone still buy a PS4? (Aside from exclusives as there will be plenty of 3rd party games on these devices) Is PS5 then a Sony Ericcson phone? Or merely an app on any phone/tablet? The counter argument is that the monetization structure on mobile is unsubstainable. A few companies make obscene amounts and most everyone else has scraps. I also agree with this. I doubt the free/.99 cent game will continue indefinitely - well, it will, cause there are plenty of simple games that can make money that way, but for more comprehensive games this structure fails and will ultimately give way to something inbetween that and the $70 games we have now on consoles. This could go anywhere from $15-30 games to some kind of subscription service for all games. Too early too tell. In general the amount of people playing games will increase over the seventh gen, but that includes consoles+tablets and other devices. Dedicated consoles use will shrink. |
Theres no way the console segment will shrink 15%... People who bought consoles will buy another next gen...and so will a few more million kids old enough to own their first console...
Also there is talk China will end a video console ban thats been in place since 2000..... That would cause a huge explosion in the console market - As china has more people then anyone!
