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Forums - Sales - My Estimated Sales For Some Major Games In 2013

Ucell on 02 February 2013

I'm revising my estimates, based on your responses:

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (10.3m on PS3, 10.1m on Xbox 360, 20.4m total)

2. Pokemon: X/Y (5.6m on 3DS and in total)

3. God Of War: Ascension (4.7m on PS3 and in total)

4. The Last Of Us (3.5m on PS3 and in total)

5. Soul Sacrifice (3.2m on PSV and in total)

6. Gears Of War: Judgement (3.2m on Xbox 360 and in total)

7. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (1.1m on PS3, 1.0m on Xbox 360, 2.1m in total)

8. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.7m on PS3, 0.8m on Xbox 360, 0.4m on PC, 1.9m in total)

9. Killzone: Mercenary (1.2m on PSV and in total)

10. Rayman Legends (1.0m on Wii U and in total)



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MANUELF on 02 February 2013
Ucell said:

I'm revising my estimates, based on your responses:

 

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (10.3m on PS3, 10.1m on Xbox 360, 20.4m total)

2. Pokemon: X/Y (5.6m on 3DS and in total)

3. God Of War: Ascension (4.7m on PS3 and in total)

4. The Last Of Us (3.5m on PS3 and in total)

5. Soul Sacrifice (3.2m on PSV and in total)

6. Gears Of War: Judgement (3.2m on Xbox 360 and in total)

7. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (1.1m on PS3, 1.0m on Xbox 360, 2.1m in total)

8. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.7m on PS3, 0.8m on Xbox 360, 0.4m on PC, 1.9m in total)

9. Killzone: Mercenary (1.2m on PSV and in total)

10. Rayman Legends (1.0m on Wii U and in total)

 

Are those numbers LT or for this year only? Even so you are GREATLY understimating Pokemon and overstimating Soul Sacrifice, God of War and Killzone



Flanneryaug on 02 February 2013
Ucell said:
Flanneryaug said:

Most of the predictions are reasonable, except for God Of War: Ascension and Soul Sacrifice. God Of War: Ascension selling 4.8 million this year would mean that it would sell more than all other GoW's lifetime sales, while there is much less hype for this one. Also there is no way that Soul Sacrifice is going to sell 3.4M on Vita this year.


Actually VGChartz has undertracked all GoW games. God Of War 3 has sold 5.2 million units as of June 31, 2012, according to an official report by Sony.

I still doubt that it will sell anywhere near 4.8 million. Maybe 3 million at best.



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ps3-sales! on 02 February 2013
Ucell said:

I'm revising my estimates, based on your responses:

 

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (10.3m on PS3, 10.1m on Xbox 360, 20.4m total)

2. Pokemon: X/Y (5.6m on 3DS and in total)

3. God Of War: Ascension (4.7m on PS3 and in total)

4. The Last Of Us (3.5m on PS3 and in total)

5. Soul Sacrifice (3.2m on PSV and in total)

6. Gears Of War: Judgement (3.2m on Xbox 360 and in total)

7. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (1.1m on PS3, 1.0m on Xbox 360, 2.1m in total)

8. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.7m on PS3, 0.8m on Xbox 360, 0.4m on PC, 1.9m in total)

9. Killzone: Mercenary (1.2m on PSV and in total)

10. Rayman Legends (1.0m on Wii U and in total)

 

If you have to revise them based on our responses then they aren't really "your" sales esimates. :p



Currently own:

 

  • Ps4

 

Currently playing: Witcher 3, Walking Dead S1/2, GTA5, Dying Light, Tomb Raider Remaster, MGS Ground Zeros

Jay520 on 02 February 2013

Looks like Soul Sacrifice is going to have. ~50% attach rate.

Nice.



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small44 on 02 February 2013
Deyon said:
ps3-sales! said:
Your Vita games are WAY too high given the Vita's current install base. Everything else seems legit. Gears might be a bit high, I don't see it continuing the same success that the previous iterations had. Honestly I don't what to expect from Gta5.

GT5 had 400k pre-orders before it launched and it sold 2.3millon first week.

Never underestimate the power of Gears of War because of the pre-order numbers.


GT5 does that amazing first week sale because of Europe not USA



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

Ucell on 04 February 2013
MANUELF said:
Ucell said:

I'm revising my estimates, based on your responses:

 

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (10.3m on PS3, 10.1m on Xbox 360, 20.4m total)

2. Pokemon: X/Y (5.6m on 3DS and in total)

3. God Of War: Ascension (4.7m on PS3 and in total)

4. The Last Of Us (3.5m on PS3 and in total)

5. Soul Sacrifice (3.2m on PSV and in total)

6. Gears Of War: Judgement (3.2m on Xbox 360 and in total)

7. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (1.1m on PS3, 1.0m on Xbox 360, 2.1m in total)

8. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.7m on PS3, 0.8m on Xbox 360, 0.4m on PC, 1.9m in total)

9. Killzone: Mercenary (1.2m on PSV and in total)

10. Rayman Legends (1.0m on Wii U and in total)

 

Are those numbers LT or for this year only? Even so you are GREATLY understimating Pokemon and overstimating Soul Sacrifice, God of War and Killzone


I'm in line with other pokemon games' YTD sales. As for GOWA, the franchies has a big following.



MANUELF on 05 February 2013
Ucell said:
MANUELF said:
Ucell said:

I'm revising my estimates, based on your responses:

 

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (10.3m on PS3, 10.1m on Xbox 360, 20.4m total)

2. Pokemon: X/Y (5.6m on 3DS and in total)

3. God Of War: Ascension (4.7m on PS3 and in total)

4. The Last Of Us (3.5m on PS3 and in total)

5. Soul Sacrifice (3.2m on PSV and in total)

6. Gears Of War: Judgement (3.2m on Xbox 360 and in total)

7. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (1.1m on PS3, 1.0m on Xbox 360, 2.1m in total)

8. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.7m on PS3, 0.8m on Xbox 360, 0.4m on PC, 1.9m in total)

9. Killzone: Mercenary (1.2m on PSV and in total)

10. Rayman Legends (1.0m on Wii U and in total)

 

Are those numbers LT or for this year only? Even so you are GREATLY understimating Pokemon and overstimating Soul Sacrifice, God of War and Killzone


I'm in line with other pokemon games' YTD sales. As for GOWA, the franchies has a big following.

But you forgot a VERY important factor, Pokemon X/Y will be released worldwide on October and God of War is a prequel and multiplayer focused at that



Conegamer on 05 February 2013

Your Pokemon prediction is far too low, will likely open at around 5mil, if not more with a simultaneous WW release!

GTA is a tad high for me, but Soul Sacrifice is ridiculous. It will be lucky to get half of that Lifetime, no more than 1mil this year, and that is very optimistic.

Will post my edited version of a similar list later today.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Aielyn on 05 February 2013
italo244 said:

Pokemon 11m? LULZ i really doubt!

You seriously don't think the first Pokemon of the next generation will sell over 11 million?

Here's the new-gen pokemon title sales for the first five generations:

Pokemon R/G/B: 31.37 million    - Gen 1

Pokemon G/S: 23.10 million       - Gen 2

Pokemon D/P: 18.04 million       - Gen 4

Pokemon R/S: 15.85 million       - Gen 3

Pokemon B/W: 14.59 million      - Gen 5

Note the sales of Gen 4, which made a few major changes to the franchise. Pokemon X/Y are set to make such changes, too. They're also the first Pokemon in 3D, and have garnered far more excitement based on 5 unveiled pokemon than the entirety of Gen 5 got.

Pokemon X/Y selling 11 million is only ludicrous because it's a lowball value. It'll probably hit 11 million by the end of the year. Why do I say this? Because B/W sold over 5 million in its launch year in Japan, it sold 3.5 million in the first 9 weeks in America, and it sold 1.7 million in the first 9 weeks in Europe. Just based on B/W alone, without factoring in the extra hype or the fact that it's releasing just before Christmas in America and Europe, and ignoring all of the "other" regions, you'd be expecting over 10 million by the end of the year. Factor in Christmas, and it's already over 11 million. Factor in the "other" regions, and it's probably going to hit 12 million by the end of the year. And we still haven't factored in the hype.