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Forums - Nintendo - It Appear that JL was right after all...

Fastrabbit09 on 24 January 2008

also of note is that Nintendo had a delay in the 2nd production bump due to a manufacturer being low on parts; so it woulda been closer to 21-22 mil if that hadn't delayed the increase for about 2-3 months...so maybe 1.2-1.8mil that it cost us



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
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Avinash_Tyagi on 24 January 2008

VGC's original numbers were more accurate, but then the sony fanboys whined and ioi changed it, only to find out he shouldn't have, let us never speak of that innacurate service known as NPD again



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 24 January 2008
Saiyar said:
Nintendo shipped 20.05 million units as of dec 31st 2007.
Nintendo themselves say that it takes 3 weeks to get from them to retail floor in US and EU.
Given a monthly production of 1.8 million units this means that at any one time there are roughly 1.35 million Wiis in transit around the world.
This gives us at least 18.7 million units on retail floor as of dec 31st. It takes less time to ship to Japan so the number will be a bit higher.

VGChartz has the number of Wii sold at 19.07 million. Seems pretty accurate to me.

 You forget Nintendo was air shipping at the end, air shipments take a day to arrive at distribution warehouses, so that probably cuts off a ton off the transit time, he was off, by a bit, but VGC was more accurate than NPD for NA, so that's all that matters



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

marcus1979 on 24 January 2008

Worldwide Wii sales top 20 million



Reaches this impressive milestone in little more than one year on the market.

Nintendo has announced that life-to-date sales of the Wii have now passed 20 million units worldwide, totalling 20.13 million as of December 31, 2007. This means that in just over one year the motion-controlled console has almost caught up lifetime sales of the GameCube (21.72 million units).

The Wii's 20 million units break down to 8.85 million in the Americas, 4.99 million in Japan and 6.3 million across other territories including Europe.

Nintendo DS hardware is also fast approaching life-to-date sales of 65 million units, with an even spread across each of the three territories: 20.18 million in the Americas, 21.66 million in Japan and 22.94 million elsewhere.

Source



Wii number: 2758-1649-6225-4782


Click here to level up my license!

johnlucas on 25 January 2008
DKII said:
It's actually 20.13 million.

And he's still going to be a bit short.

His real prediction was 24 million anyway, he copped out and said "at minimum 20 million" after that.

Wii has finally officially sold more to retail than the 360 now.

No, no, no DKII. I got it all in these links. I put down the 24 million MAX as an added superfluous stipulation weeks later.

My original prediction has always stood as 20 million minimum worldwide Wiis sold by the end of the calendar year. It was my very first post here.

Read for yourself (scroll down since VGChartz doesn't have ability to home in on specific posts):

"Worldwide Wii sales are now only 4 million behind Xbox 360 - closing the gap"

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=672

March 14, 2007 at VGC time 19:28

johnlucas said:

I'm laughing at all the posts that say Wii can't beat XBox 360 this year.
LAUGHING!

...

I predict by end of year we'll be seeing Wii be on its way to that 20 million mark probably even passed that. That is not hyperbole. Half a year they sell 10 million so why do you think the other half they can't sell 10 million? You know holiday sales give a little more oomph than rest of year, right?

In a later reply in same thread replying to The Source:

March 14, 2007 at VGC time 21:32

johnlucas said:

...

You'll be seeing me on these boards, trust me. Just wait and see what the numbers say to see if I'm full of hot air or some other type of 'substance'. I call it for July. That's when we'll see Wii catch the 360. I call it for 20 million at Dec 31, 2007. That's the worldwide tally of sales for Wii.
We'll just have to see if I'm right.
I don't play the caution game when I see a sure thing.
I don't like hedging bets. I'm very confident in my predictions.

Engraved in electronic stone. There's your answer DKII.

And I never wavered.

When I saw The Source start to kick around that 20 million number as a hypothetical in an analysis a few months later I knew I had 'em.

John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

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ClaudeLv250 on 25 January 2008

John Lucas wins.


Flawless Victory.



Tag - "No trolling on my watch!"

Mummelmann on 25 January 2008

Perhaps you never wavered, but you are loath to admit it when wrong. You missed by half an inch, why debate when you were so close? It makes you look desperate, and frankly does not become you JL.
@Avinash; maybe it was your whining that made ioi change the numbers?

@ClaudeLv250: No, not so much, but darn close.

And using numbers outside of Vgchartz (Ninty uses sold to retailers, not end user, two different things) to validate claims is just a bit low imo. One shoudl always point out the specifics when making a claim with such bravure instead of nitpicking and arguing over technicalities in the aftermath. It's nothing personal, but everyone should base their numbers on Vgchartz numbers when prediction on Vgchartz. I could very well argue that the Wii was under 20 million by more than 200k if I wanted, simply by using another sites numbers, but I don't and I won't.
If a prediction fails; stop trying to redeem or validify it and start a new one, it's simple!



Avinash_Tyagi on 25 January 2008

Ah Mummel, I only pointed out the facts, of which ioi himself is fully aware, VGC was clearly more accurate then NPD prior to the downgrade



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

omgwtfbbq on 25 January 2008
Saiyar said:
Nintendo shipped 20.05 million units as of dec 31st 2007.
Nintendo themselves say that it takes 3 weeks to get from them to retail floor in US and EU.
Given a monthly production of 1.8 million units this means that at any one time there are roughly 1.35 million Wiis in transit around the world.
This gives us at least 18.7 million units on retail floor as of dec 31st. It takes less time to ship to Japan so the number will be a bit higher.

VGChartz has the number of Wii sold at 19.07 million. Seems pretty accurate to me.

Nintendo tripled their distribution workforce for Christmas. You'll find that the time between shipped and sold during the end of december would have been much lower.

The number of units "shipped" also depends on how Nintendo defines "shipped". Is it shipped as soon as it leaves their workshop? Or is it shipped as soon as it arrives in the retailer? If it's the former, there could be a big gap. If it's the latter, then the gap will be tiny, since I doubt any retailers will have been holding back =)

 



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

Mummelmann on 25 January 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Ah Mummel, I only pointed out the facts, of which ioi himself is fully aware, VGC was clearly more accurate then NPD prior to the downgrade

 Seems weird since Vgchartz has 2% coverage and NPD has over 10%. But you know what they say; every error is a human error...