its too early to say if microsoft is doing the wrong thing with the nexbox. We don't know what kinect 2.0 will be, we don't know what kind of multimedia features microsoft is developing, we don't know what the final specs will be, we don't know what kind of games are being developed, and we don't know what microsofts plans for xbox live are.

Basically, we don't know anything. We some vague rumors that may or may not be true. If anything, I don't think it is microsoft that is underestimating their competition as much as the op is underestimating microsoft.

Lets wait until consoles are announced, and then we can have a real conversation on this topic. As it is now, it just seems like a thread made to bait people into arguments over nothing.

People said the ps3 would dominate the Wii,360 and look where it is now 3rd place. So you never know.

If Microsoft keeps focusing on casuals and forgeting the hardcore gamers that made them who they are they will lose next gen.

Its obviously too early to tell, but i have made the case before that Microsoft hit their ceiling with this gen. They are shut off from one of the 3 major markets
(japan) and that mean they cant ever get more than a 50/50 market, unless something catastrofic happens to Sony or Nintendo.

On the other hand, If Sony or Nintendo hit the right keys, they can easily dominate the market. Nintendo has better IP's and a headstart, Sony has a more appealing network solution and more creative IP's.

I would say Microsoft is in a bind at the moment, and much will depend on the games they will show. Its the US that keeps them afloat and im sure they will have moderate sucess on that market at least. Will they be able to grab europe from the hands of Sony though? Its difficult to believe that. As such, they can never truly dominate the market worldwide, what they can do is be competitive with multi-platform, wich is what they have done this gen.
Obviously much of the early sucess of the 360 came from beeing cheaper, 1 year earlier on the market and plenty of japanese exclusives on those early 2 years. Those wont be there anymore maybe except for price.

I would hardly say being cut off from japan means they can't get more that a 50/50 market.  Japans sells numbers are so low that they are negligible.  You could take away the wii's entire japan sales from their total and they would still be winning.  The xbox alone has sold twice as much in america as all three combined have sold in japan.  

No, being cut off from japan doesn't really matter at all.  If Microsoft won over europe they could easily lead the market, and that is always a possibility.  Europe seems a lot more receptive to microsoft than japan.  

I wouldnt say irrelevant with games selling above one million on the playstation 3 and the Wii. Its still a very large market, also its the home market of alot of game developers and publishers. without this market they will never bet on Xbox exclusives, wich means a section of the development market is shut off for that purpose.

Europe is more receptive to the Xbox, but i can pretty much garantee they will keep going for the Playstation unless it become a huge failure. Playstation sponsors the Champions League in europe, wich makes it alot more socially acceptable than other consoles. videogames are still seen as a thing for nerds and to be ashamed about over here in europe. The playstation brand and FIFA/PES make it acceptable.

But, we will see. I dont believe that Europe will go to microsoft if it hasnt in this current gen. Wich, really just confirms my suspicion that Microsoft has a hard road in front of them. Without the competitors making the same mistakes, can they repear the sucess they had this gen?

well, right now xbox is only 6% behind playstation in Europe, I wouldn't call that an insurmountable amount.  Most of the big devs in japan are first party studios, with the exception of square and capcom, but both of them are multiplatform focused.  

My main point is that microsoft can become the market leader without japan.  They are really strong in the biggest market, they do ok in Europe the second biggest market, and are weak in japan, by far the smallest market.  If they can improve their standing in both America and Europe, even by a few percentage points in maketshare in both next gen, they could be market leader.  

Of course, it really depends on what microsoft and the others do next gen.  We still know almost nothing about Sony and Microsofts plans, there is room for either or both to flop out of the gate again like they both did last time.  We will see...

Ok, you're misinterpreting me. I'm not saying its impossible for them to be leaders (they kind of were this gen already). What im saying is that their dominance will never be in the level of a Playstation 2. So the kind of dominance they have now is kind of the best they can get. Yeah they can do a bit better in europe if they were smashing the competition, but it would still be unlikely that they could get something more than a 60ish percent slice of the market... unless of course in the unlikely scenario that both Nintendo and Sony would totally fail.

oh, ok yeah, I can kind of agree with that.  However, I would say that is kind of true for all of them at this point...

Any of them can end up third, or worse even these other rumor consoles are actually released and gain an audience. What MS is rumored to be doing could also be what a lot of people will decide they want. I guess we will see.

Of course Sony's financial will have an impact on the PS4. What would Sony do if MS payd Rockstar 100 million to get GTA VI exclusive for example? Having less cash is always a disadvantage. Period.

I think the Wii U had a decent holiday season. I won't judge a system because of two weeks of bad sales. If I remember correctly you were one of those people who said it would be premature to judge the Vita before its first xmas season. Double standards anyone?

And you think the XBox 3 will be in 3rd place that means you expect it to sell less than the Wii U. So what numbers do you think will the Xbox 3 sell in January after its first xmas? 40k / week?

Of course Sony is playing catch-up. Heck PSN was just down for the past weekend. And why do you think the 1 billion statement is stupid? It is the truth. So all the talk about "Xbox 3 will cost more [for MS] due to Kinect" is offset by the 1 billion USD MS makes with the fees that Sony is not able to generate. So that could reduce the price tag significantly.