Its obviously too early to tell, but i have made the case before that Microsoft hit their ceiling with this gen. They are shut off from one of the 3 major markets
(japan) and that mean they cant ever get more than a 50/50 market, unless something catastrofic happens to Sony or Nintendo.
On the other hand, If Sony or Nintendo hit the right keys, they can easily dominate the market. Nintendo has better IP's and a headstart, Sony has a more appealing network solution and more creative IP's.
I would say Microsoft is in a bind at the moment, and much will depend on the games they will show. Its the US that keeps them afloat and im sure they will have moderate sucess on that market at least. Will they be able to grab europe from the hands of Sony though? Its difficult to believe that. As such, they can never truly dominate the market worldwide, what they can do is be competitive with multi-platform, wich is what they have done this gen.
Obviously much of the early sucess of the 360 came from beeing cheaper, 1 year earlier on the market and plenty of japanese exclusives on those early 2 years. Those wont be there anymore maybe except for price.
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