As some have already said, next gen there will be more studios, but most of them will be small and will take advantage of the digital distribution. Also their games won't be "AAA" but more likely small with maybe some studio trying to push it a bit towads the end of the gen.

The big studios like EA, Activision-Blizzard, Bethesda or Ubisoft will still be around and they will still make AAA games, but even Ubisoft's CEO said that while their AAA games will be bigger, there will be less of them, so even the big ones may end having problems if their blockbusters fail.

To be honest, for next gen I expect the same amount of games more or less, but the vast majority of them will be the kind of games that today recieve 7's or 8's because of graphics. Expect more good and fun games like "Darksiders" or "Borderlands" and less great games like "God of War" and "Halo" like games.

That will also mean that reviewers will have to learn again how to score properly and judge games by what they are and offer not by how they look, but that's another story.

Ya, I think one of the big 3 has way too many underperforming studios and its gonna catch up with them next gen.

That's absolutely what's happening in the console space and will only worsen next gen.

The middle has fallen out. You can't make a AA game and make a profit with it. It's either be an independant on PSN/XBL/WW or go BIG. This is why THQ is bankrupt along with a whole host of others.

However, a lot of developers (staff, not so much whole studios) are moving too the mobile space so they don't have to make CoD:BO 14 or GTA 7 or GoW5 or AC 8 but can make whatever their hearts desire (that has a reasonable chance to make money). While starting small many are growing into medium and even into huge developers making profits that far, far outstrip what console game developers are making (when they make any profit at all). It won't surprise me if in the next few years, EA and Activision are bought out by what was a mobile upstart just a couple years ago.

When I was creating the post, I was trying to find a way to say I was not talking about the smaller indie guys with low budgets, but rather, the amount of developers and titles of AAA variety we have known and people here are focused on.  I do see indie guys popping up all over, continuing to plug away and not really make any money, but dev costs being slow low, more and more guys can enter.  And, if you are into game design (stuff I do tabletop side), you end up being compelled to keep doing it, so there are no barriers.  However, I figured it would be best to ask if we are going to see a decline in the amounts of AAA top of the line stuff.

I wasn't speaking of the size of teams.  I was speaking of the amount of people working in the videogame industry over all on the AAA level.  I can see teams would continue to grow, but there be less of them.  That is the question.

for the ones that can't afford the budget yes, but for other studios and publishers. they'll likely expand studios to focus on mobile gaming.

there will be at least 7 consoles for Dev's and Pub's to dev. for, not including PS360.

Feel free to make the list 2 or 3 times larger than that.  A concern as a gamer into new things is that the industry reduces itself to Madden and CoD where they establish a brand on the AAA side, and milks it.  If you want new IP, you have to look the indie route.  Of course, with this indie route, you get innovation, but graphics and other aspects of high production value, that are scaled back a lot.

Your comment is a core of a concern I have.  Suddenly the industry gets stale, people get bored, and it collapses under its own weight.  Part of the original post's  reason for being is to ask people if they see that happening and are bothered by it.

Also even if Uncharted is $25 million to make, that is still $25 million.  You are going to have to sell multi-millions of copies to be able to get the needed sales to break even and make a profit.

Uncharted 2 made a profit the first 2 weeks so it's not that bad

That was a flagship title for Sony though, pretty much became their counter to Gears of War actually.  But have to look to NON-flagship titles with budgets like that or much larger.  If have to sell multi-millions of copies, there is a problem.

There's not much light to shed, because it's plain to see to anyone who's paying even a modicum of attention. The decisions made (and continuing to be made) by the video game industry are doing a great job of leading to precisely that future.