Vita is getting ready for take off.

The list of MH titles http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=monster+hunter&publisher=&platform=&genre=&minSales=0&results=200 is an interesting read: it shows that while "MH + just a number" once was on PS2, already since 7th gen that branch became a Ninty exclusive with MH Tri, so it's quite likely MH4 will be a true, not timed, Ninty exclusive. MH G has one PS2 and one Wii title, so it could remain a multiplat if used again, MH Frontier is used on XB360 and PC versions and MH Freedom is a Sony exclusive, so a possible PSV version could most likely belong to MH Freedom branch.

Edit:

PS: PSP didn't ever receive any title not belonging to MH Freedom branch.

I hope it comes on the Vita, and then Freedom 4 becomes a Vita exclusive.

A Vita release would suffer greatly compared to the 3DS release.

Vita needs exclusive games. A late port of a 3DS version is absolutely not going to help it.

If anything, the fact that the 3DS version would sold way better than a possible Vita version would lead all the third party to 3DS

Thats a very negative take on it. I'd say the Vita version selling over 500k (which it will) would send a message to japanese the developers that its worth going multiplatform releases, especially since the Vita is more powerfull then the 3DS and porting upwards to a more powerfull systems is usually not too much of a headache (one would assume), of course the games won't take full advantage of the Vita power, but that doesn' really matter. Multiplatform titles are still a massive part of making a system a viable purchase and eventually a success. Gamers aren't going to a buy a system which only recieves a few good games each year, even if those games are exclusive.

The Vita needs exclusive games to sell. If all the games the Vita is getting from Third Parties are 3DS port, then it will continue to struggle since the 3DS will have plenty of big exclusives to continue on his pace.

But of course the Vita is going to have exclusives. I'm just saying you also need other releases between your exclusives, ones to fill the space/ 2 to cater to audiences which your exclusives might not. And in terms of Vita vs 3DS the Vita has tons of games coming out which aren't available on the 3DS: Phantasy star, Soul Sacrifice, One Piece, Gundam, Project J versus, God Eater 2,  and a bunch of late console ports (ninja gaidan/Demon blade etc), so I'm not worried about it having games which the 3DS does not.

In regards to the Monster Hunter 4 being multi platform, this is the kind of situation in which it could make a ig difference for the Vita. Someone may have an interest in the Soul Sacrifice and Gundam Breaker, but if Monster Hunter is their favourite franchise, they're more or less forced to buy 3DS (if its exclusive). It being multipltform makes the Vita viable choice and so we're bound to see and increase in hardware sales.

About this bet, is it limited to MH4 or all of the iterations like freedom or MH4G.

Vita is saved at least in Japan if this comes out