oni-link said:
NobleTeam360 said: Well since japan is allies with the United States and Europe I can see this quickly becoming WWIII and China has Russia backing them. |
Well it doesn't look good for us though, EU's economy is in shambles (only Germany seems to get it right) and Japan and the USA are so debt burdened that it would really weaken our resolve. China is being bold seeing that it has the support of Russia and Pakistan (maybe even Iran) just in case crap hits the fan. The only other ally the USA has in Asia (that isn't afraid of China or economically dependent on China) is the Philippines. That one barely has a capable Navy to defend itself (3 Frigates; one WWII vintage, and a dozen Corvettes the newest being 26 years old) let alone help in assisting/defending the Seventh fleet just in case they need refuge from the fight!!! Don't get me wrong, the Philippines will provide refuge but I doubt the Phil Navy can protect the Seventh if they do need a place to hide just in case the war goes south for them.
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Hello there
In my opinion, you have gotten a number of things wrong in some of your posts in this thread (note, I am responding to you because you're debating in a reasonable manner, whereas some people are being obnoxious or stupid; it is not my intent to pick on you).
The first thing I would like to establish is that I fundamentally believe that China and Japan will not go to war in the forseeable future. I certainly do not believe that the USA or China would go to war anytime in the next three decades by design (that is, if they went to war it would be because of a massive misunderstanding followed by a quick flare up).
Secondly, whilst Europe and America are currently facing substantial economic woe, it is important to remember that this is not (yet) having a negative impact on their military capabilities (though it may in future, as defense and procurement budgets are cut). Japan is a little different, in that it has had substantially depressed defence budgets for a decade. But in contrast to Europe and the USA, that is set to turn around this year.
However, in the event there was a war between Japan and China, there are a couple of important things to note. Firstly, neither of these two nations has a substantial projected power capability. That is, they are both quite effectively able to defend their own borders, but not to project power into the borders of other large nations (i.e. eachother). So any suggestion that a war could be 'won' by either of these nations is inaccurate. They could have an at sea skirmish, that would result in ship/aircraft/personel losses on both their parts. But even here some in this thread have implied that Japan is at a disadvantage. This is not the case. Japan's navy is extremely modern, and capable of matching the Chinese Navy. What it lacks in numbers it makes up in technological sophistication that China lacks. Could this change in the future? Yes. But right now it is the recognised status quo.
So, what would happen if these two nations went to war and the USA got involved. Firstly, the air/sea battle situation would change very quickly. China's Navy and airforce would be decimated. However even here there is a very real question as to whether anyone could actually 'win.' The USA has easily the highest level of projectable power of any nation in history. That said, China has developed extensive area and access denial networks, designed to make it extremely difficult to penetrate its air and sea space. Even if the USA neutralised these networks (there are varying opinions as to whether they could), invading such a populated country just isnt feasible. So, they would likely have some sort of stalemate, with an agreement developed that is favourable to the USA and Japan.
Note: These scenarios are dependent on nuclear weapons not being used. China has a stated no-first-use policy, dictating that they would never use nuclear weapons unless a foreign power used, or attempted to use, nuclear weapons against China. The USA would not, of course, use nuclear weapons against China in the outlined scenario. But I wouldn't be surprised if the above war was fought, to find that Japan decided it needed to develop its own nuclear weapons afterwards.